BMIE Market 28609

Catawba County, North Carolina · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	6,615 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,129 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,941 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±453 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	5,864 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,659 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$77,679 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±21,173 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	40.7 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±8 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,238 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±318 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$245,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±38,486 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	45.7 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	4 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 28609
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	Not yet derived
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2007 → 2012, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+200.0% DERIVED: 2012 → 2022, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+100.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+300.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	4 (range 3–6) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2004–2023 (11 points, +0.1 per year, r² 0.67) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	70 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	63 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	81 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	67 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 28609. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2004–2023, +0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.67, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. North Carolina and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 688, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 70 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	62.8	63	40%	+25.1
Restaurant Opportunity Score	80.8	81	35%	+28.3
Market Momentum Score	66.5	67	25%	+16.6

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 63 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	6,615	65	40%	+25.9
Median household income (ACS)	77,679	59	40%	+23.6
Households (ACS)	2,941	67	20%	+13.3

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 81 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	200	97	35%	+34.1
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	6.1	88	25%	+22.0
Population (ACS)	6,615	65	20%	+13.0
Median household income (ACS)	77,679	59	20%	+11.8

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 67 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	200	97	30%	+29.2
20-year restaurant growth	100	82	20%	+16.5

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (14)

By cuisine

Bakery 2 · Asian 1 · Coffee 1 · Dessert 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Japanese 1 · Pizza 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 6 · Dessert 4 · Bar 3 · Bakery 2 · Casual dining 2 · Coffee shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
3 Catrines Cantina & Grill Catawba	Restaurant (service type not stated)		105 S Main St	open
Blue Flower Cottage and Farm	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery	5171 E North Carolina 10 Hwy	open
Catawba Creamery	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	201 2nd Ave SW	open
Hunt Brothers Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	3723 Oxford School Road	open
Kenzlyn’s Freeze Factory	Dessert			open
Osaki Japanese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Asian	825 Main St W	open
Pop's Old Company Store And Tavern	Casual dining · Bar		101 N Main St	open
Rustic Rail Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)		110 S Main St	open
Sports Spinners	Restaurant (service type not stated)		201 N Main St	open
Sweeter Than Honey Bakehouse LLC Catawba	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	6514 Comm Scope Rd	open
Taste Of Catawba	Coffee shop	Coffee	102 S Main St	open
The Cedar Stump Pub - Catawba The Cedar Stump Pub-Troutman	Bar		110 S Main St	open
Waterside Bar and Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		7774 Hudson Chapel Rd	open
Rose and Daisy	Restaurant (service type not stated)		102 S Main St	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	4	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	4	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	2	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	2	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	3	3	3	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	4	2	2	—	—	1	NAICS2002
2004	3	1	1	—	—	1	NAICS2002
2005	4	2	2	—	—	1	NAICS2002
2006	3	1	1	—	—	1	NAICS2002
2007	3	1	1	—	—	1	NAICS2002
2008	3	1	1	—	—	1	NAICS2007
2009	1	—	—	—	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	1	—	—	—	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	1	—	—	—	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	3	2	1	1	—	1	NAICS2012
2017	4	—	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	4	—	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	5	—	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	6	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	5	—	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	6	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	8	4	—	—	3	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 28609. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.