BMIE Market 28612

Burke County, North Carolina · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	11,290 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,043 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,763 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±396 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	12,397 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	5,385 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$54,934 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5,256 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	43.7 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$872 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±182 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$162,400 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±14,007 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	80.0 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	6 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 28612
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	2.4 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+50.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+200.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+100.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	7 (range 5–9) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.2 per year, r² 0.69) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	62 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	52 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	70 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	64 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 28612. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.69, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. North Carolina and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 688, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 62 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	52.4	52	40%	+21.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	70.3	70	35%	+24.6
Market Momentum Score	64.1	64	25%	+16.0

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 52 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	11,290	73	40%	+29.0
Median household income (ACS)	54,934	22	40%	+8.6
Households (ACS)	4,763	74	20%	+14.7

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 70 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	50	82	35%	+28.8
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	5.3	91	25%	+22.7
Population (ACS)	11,290	73	20%	+14.5
Median household income (ACS)	54,934	22	20%	+4.3

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 64 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	50	82	30%	+24.7
20-year restaurant growth	200	93	20%	+18.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (19)

By cuisine

American 3 · Bakery 3 · Mexican 3 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 2 · Chicken / wings 2 · Pizza 2 · BBQ 1 · Juice / smoothies 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 7 · Bar 4 · Bakery 3 · Casual dining 3 · Quick service 3 · Winery / distillery / taproom 2 · Delivery-focused 1 · Dessert 1 · Food truck 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Babydoll's Southern Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	3036 Harmony St	open
Bojangles' Bojangles	Quick service	Chicken / wings · Cajun, Creole, Southern	130 Malcolm Blvd	open
Chicken in the Basket	Casual dining	American · Chicken / wings	1413 US-70	open
Domino's Pizza Domino's Pizza	Delivery-focused · Quick service	Pizza	2935 US-70	open
EC's Smokin' Butts BBQ That Is	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	3367 Texs Fish Camp Rd	open
El Paso Express Fresh Mex.	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	1121 US-70 W	open
Grace & Grain Farmstand	Bakery	Bakery	6565 Hildebran View St	open
Grey Ghost Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	101 Fashion Ave	open
Jessica & Family Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1131 Malcolm Blvd	open
Mr. B's Fun Food Inc.	Food truck · Dessert		2616 Israel Chapel Rd	open
Purple Jesus Moonshine	Winery / distillery / taproom · Casual dining · Bar		1027 Malcolm Blvd	open
South Mountain Distilling Company	Winery / distillery / taproom		1027 Malcolm Blvd	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	3456 Miller Bridge Road	open
Tex's Fish Camp	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Cajun, Creole, Southern	3452 Texs Fish Camp Rd	open
The Aztec Chef	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	1311 Malcolm Blvd	open
The Cock and Robin Pub	Bar · Casual dining		Main Avenue	open
The KNOB	Bar		1191 US-70 W	open
The White House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1311 Malcolm Blvd	open
Waldensian Style Wines	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	2340 Quail Run	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	3	3	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	3	3	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	2	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	2	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	2	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	2	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	2	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	2	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	2	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	3	3	3	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	2	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	3	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	3	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	3	3	3	—	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	3	3	3	—	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	3	3	3	—	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	4	4	4	—	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	4	4	4	—	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	5	5	5	—	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	4	4	4	—	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	4	4	4	—	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	5	5	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	6	6	4	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	6	6	4	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	6	6	4	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	6	6	4	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	6	6	4	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	6	6	4	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 28612. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.