BMIE Market 28681

Alexander County, North Carolina · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	25,566 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±834 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	9,768 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±417 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	25,910 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	11,264 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$60,977 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5,363 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	43.9 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$736 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±45 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$209,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±14,784 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	167.6 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	27 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 28681
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	11.2 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+22.7% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-10.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+35.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	26 (range 21–30) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.1 per year, r² 0.05) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	58 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	64 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	53 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	54 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 28681. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.05, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. North Carolina and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 688, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 58 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	63.8	64	40%	+25.5
Restaurant Opportunity Score	53.2	53	35%	+18.6
Market Momentum Score	53.5	54	25%	+13.4

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 64 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	25,566	86	40%	+34.3
Median household income (ACS)	60,977	31	40%	+12.5
Households (ACS)	9,768	85	20%	+17.0

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 53 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	35%	+12.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	10.6	70	25%	+17.5
Population (ACS)	25,566	86	20%	+17.1
Median household income (ACS)	60,977	31	20%	+6.3

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 54 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	22.7	79	50%	+39.6
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	30%	+10.5
20-year restaurant growth	-10	17	20%	+3.4

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (52)

By cuisine

American 13 · Bakery 7 · Pizza 7 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 5 · Coffee 5 · Dessert 5 · Japanese 4 · Asian 3 · Burgers 3 · Mexican 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Chicken / wings 2 · Italian 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Steakhouse 2 · BBQ 1 · Chinese 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Seafood 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Sushi 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1 · Vietnamese 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 30 · Quick service 11 · Bakery 7 · Café 5 · Casual dining 5 · Dessert 5 · Bar 4 · Coffee shop 3 · Catering 2 · Delivery-focused 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Food truck 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
16/90 T'ville Scoops	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	604 W Main Ave	open
5th avenue	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	5 1st Avenue Cir SE	open
AH Good Lasses	Restaurant (service type not stated)		351 Herman Rd	open
Apple City BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	3490 NC-16 South	open
Apple City Taphouse	Bar		42 W Main Ave	open
Arby's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	486 NC Highway 16	open
Blondeez Restaurant	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	9579 NC-127	open
Bojangles' Bojangles	Quick service	Chicken / wings · Cajun, Creole, Southern	500 NC Hwy 16 S	open
Brushy Mountain Brews	Restaurant (service type not stated)		42 W Main Ave	open
Brushy Mountain Restaurant, Bar & Events Brushy Mountain Restaurant & Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Catering · Bar		300 Golf Course Ln	open
Burger Basket	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	37 Liledoun Rd	open
Casa Mexico	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other)	60 Liledoun Rd	open
Celebration Cakes	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	1128 Carrigan Rd	open
Cheffy’s Italian Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1200 NC Highway 90 E	open
Coffee House Diner Coffee House Diner # 905	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	American · Coffee	71 Chevy Dr	open
Crossroads Grill	Casual dining	American · Burgers	5585 Rink Dam Rd	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	821 West Main Ave	open
Giovanni's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	677 W Main Ave	open
Hawks' Hill Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom			open
Heritage Sandwich and Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service · Bakery	Sandwiches · Bakery	554 NC-16	open
Hollar's Backstreet Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	36 Linneys Mountain Rd	open
Hong Kong Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		817 NC Highway 16 S	open
House of Eggroll & Pho	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vietnamese · Asian	1200 NC-90	open
Hunt Brothers Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	67 Old Wilkesboro Rd Ext	open
KFC KFC	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	24 Liledoun Road	open
Kiley’s Sugar Shoppe	Bakery	Bakery	130 Main Avenue Dr	open
Koto's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Steakhouse	66 NC-16	open
Koto's Japanese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Asian	66 NC-16 S	open
Kristin Kakes & Goodies	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	1498 NC-90 W	open
Kwench Coffee & Soda Shop	Café · Coffee shop	Coffee	69 E Main Ave	open
Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	825 NC-16	open
Little Japan	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi	9541 NC-127	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	561 W Main Ave	open
Mexico Viejo	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	1060 NC-90	open
Nickel Pickle's Sweet Treats Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	224 School Dr	open
Nikki Japanese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese	797 NC Highway 16 S	open
Oriental Cafe Chinese Restaurant	Café	Chinese · Coffee · Asian	885 W Main Ave	open
Pizza Hut Pizza Hut	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	569 c 3rd St Space 4 Space 4	open
PJ's Bethlehem Seafood & Steak	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · Steakhouse · American	349 Rink Dam Rd	open
Robinson Road Foods Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		349 Rink Dam Rd	open
S and S Family Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Cajun, Creole, Southern	591 E Main Ave	open
Scotty's Hometown Grill	Casual dining · Bar	American · Cajun, Creole, Southern	30 Buffett Blvd	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Quick service · Café	Coffee	81 Rink Dam Rd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	565 3rd St SW Suite 30	open
Taco Bout It	Food truck	Mexican	255 NC-16 N	open
Teens & Deens Country Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Cajun, Creole, Southern	2696 NC-16	open
The Happy Hub Nutrition	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	128 Main Ave Dr	open
The Rustic Roast	Café · Juice, smoothie, tea · Coffee shop	Coffee · Tea / bubble tea	103 E Main Ave	open
The Sweet Shoppe	Bakery · Catering	Bakery	3330 Liledoun Rd	open
Three Fork Cakes	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	2276 3 Forks Church Rd	open
Village Inn Pizza Village Inn Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · American	90 Liledoun Rd	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	572 Nc 16 S	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	21	20	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	19	19	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	18	18	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	26	26	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	27	25	10	14	1	—	NAICS1997
1999	27	26	11	14	1	—	NAICS1997
2000	26	25	9	15	1	—	NAICS1997
2001	27	26	11	15	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	29	28	12	16	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	32	30	15	15	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	31	28	13	15	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	33	30	15	15	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	34	32	17	14	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	35	33	20	12	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	33	31	19	11	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	31	30	18	11	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	30	29	16	12	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	32	31	19	11	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	28	28	19	9	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	28	27	16	11	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	25	25	15	10	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	24	24	13	11	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	25	25	15	10	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	24	24	14	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	22	22	12	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	24	24	13	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	24	23	13	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	26	25	14	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	30	29	17	11	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	27	27	14	12	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 28681. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.