BMIE Market 28690

Burke County, North Carolina · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	9,196 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±858 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,510 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±397 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	9,295 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,466 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$67,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±14,095 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	51.2 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$810 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±255 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$211,300 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±26,023 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	21.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	12 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 28690
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	9.7 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-20.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+50.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	12 (range 9–15) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.0 per year, r² 0.01) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	47 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	59 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	50 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	23 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 28690. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.01, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. North Carolina and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 688, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 47 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	59.3	59	40%	+23.7
Restaurant Opportunity Score	49.7	50	35%	+17.4
Market Momentum Score	22.6	23	25%	+5.6

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 59 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	9,196	70	40%	+27.8
Median household income (ACS)	67,000	42	40%	+16.9
Households (ACS)	4,510	73	20%	+14.6

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 50 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	35%	+12.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	13.1	60	25%	+15.0
Population (ACS)	9,196	70	20%	+13.9
Median household income (ACS)	67,000	42	20%	+8.5

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 23 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-20	13	50%	+6.5
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	30%	+10.5
20-year restaurant growth	0	28	20%	+5.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (24)

By cuisine

American 7 · Pizza 4 · Sandwiches 4 · Coffee 3 · Bakery 2 · Mexican 2 · Asian 1 · BBQ 1 · Burgers 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Dessert 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Italian 1 · Latin American (other) 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 12 · Quick service 7 · Café 3 · Bakery 2 · Bar 2 · Casual dining 2 · Dessert 2 · Specialty food shop 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Catering 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Fast casual 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
100 Main Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		100 Main St E	open
Bimbo Bakeries USA Bimbo Bakeries USA	Bakery	Bakery	320 Main St E	open
Buckle & Brew	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	100 Main St W	open
Cafe Sabai	Café	Coffee	149 Main St W	open
Chubby's of Valdese	Fast casual · Quick service · Specialty food shop	Sandwiches · Healthy / salads / bowls	831 Main St W	open
High Peak	Bar	BBQ		open
Los Compadres Mexican Restaurant Los Compadres Mexican Restaurant Valdese	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	508 Main St E	open
Major's Supper and Social	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian · American	149 Main St W	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	443 Main St W	open
Mill Town Social House	Casual dining · Bar	American	118 Main St W	open
Myra's Inc	Dessert · Quick service · Catering	Ice cream / frozen desserts	212 Main St W	open
Old World Baking Company	Bakery · Café	Bakery · Coffee · American	149 Main St W	open
Papa John's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1468 US Highway 70 W	open
Papa Johns Pizza Papa John's Pizza	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1470 US-70	open
Pelican's SnoBalls Pelican's SnoBalls- Jax Beach	Dessert	Dessert	90 Ridge St	open
Pizza Hut Pizza Hut	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1181 Main St W	open
Stella's Deli	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	641 Main St E	open
Stretch's Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Cajun, Creole, Southern	1900 US-70	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	302 Malcolm Blvd	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	310 Main St W	open
Taqueria El Mana	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Mexican · American	1010 Main St W	open
The Levee	Brewery / taproom		118 Main St W	open
Twin Brother’s Pizza Co	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian · American	719 Main St E	open
Zamoras Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		508 Main St E	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	9	8	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	7	6	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	8	7	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	13	13	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	14	13	2	10	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	14	13	2	10	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	15	14	3	10	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	14	13	1	11	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	14	13	2	10	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	13	12	1	10	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	13	12	1	9	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	13	12	2	9	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	14	12	3	9	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	13	11	4	7	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	13	11	4	6	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	10	8	4	4	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	11	9	4	4	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	12	11	6	5	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	13	13	7	6	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	14	12	6	6	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	13	11	5	6	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	14	12	5	7	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	13	11	4	7	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	15	13	6	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	18	15	7	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	17	14	6	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	15	12	4	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	13	11	4	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	14	12	4	8	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	14	12	7	5	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 28690. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
28619	2.6 mi	2	2016
28671	2.9 mi	3	2020

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.