BMIE Market 28731

Henderson County, North Carolina · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	8,672 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,026 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	3,783 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±358 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	7,778 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,241 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$66,309 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±11,804 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	54.9 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,005 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±263 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$402,300 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±52,564 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	33.1 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	13 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 28731
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	14.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-7.1% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+85.7% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+550.0% DERIVED: 1996 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	9 (range 6–12) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.4 per year, r² 0.45) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	49 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	58 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	42 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	42 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 28731. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.4 restaurants per year, r² 0.45, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. North Carolina and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 688, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 49 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	57.9	58	40%	+23.2
Restaurant Opportunity Score	42.1	42	35%	+14.7
Market Momentum Score	42.5	42	25%	+10.6

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 58 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	8,672	69	40%	+27.5
Median household income (ACS)	66,309	41	40%	+16.4
Households (ACS)	3,783	70	20%	+14.0

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 42 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-7.1	20	35%	+6.9
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	15.0	53	25%	+13.2
Population (ACS)	8,672	69	20%	+13.7
Median household income (ACS)	66,309	41	20%	+8.2

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 42 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	-7.1	20	30%	+6.0
20-year restaurant growth	85.7	78	20%	+15.7

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (31)

By cuisine

American 10 · Bakery 4 · Coffee 4 · BBQ 3 · Breakfast 3 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 3 · Chicken / wings 3 · Pizza 3 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Asian 1 · Burgers 1 · Dessert 1 · Spanish / tapas 1 · Thai 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 16 · Quick service 6 · Bakery 5 · Bar 3 · Coffee shop 3 · Dessert 3 · Café 2 · Casual dining 2 · Winery / distillery / taproom 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Catering 1 · Specialty food shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Asheville Packing Co	Dessert · Quick service · Specialty food shop	BBQ · Sandwiches · Ice cream / frozen desserts	980 Upward Rd	open
Barnhouse Kitchen	Bakery	Bakery · Breakfast · American	368 Lily Pad Ln	open
Blue Ruby Kitchen	Bakery	Bakery	2702 Greenville Hwy D	open
Bojangles' Bojangles	Quick service	Chicken / wings · Cajun, Creole, Southern	700 Upward Road	open
Boon Choo Thai Express	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	576 Upward Rd	open
Campfire Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	2770 Greenville Hwy	open
Cracker Barrel Cracker Barrel Old Country Store	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	105 Commercial Blvd. I-26 & Upward Rd.	open
Dickey's Barbecue Pit	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	576 Upward Rd	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Coffee shop · Quick service · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	754 Upward Rd	open
Flat Rock Cider Company	Winery / distillery / taproom · Brewery / taproom · Bar		PRODUCTION FACILITY ONLY, 925 Upward Rd	open
Flat Rock Village Bakery	Bakery · Café	Bakery · Pizza · Coffee	2710 Greenville Hwy	open
Hey Chickadee	Dessert · Catering	Ice cream / frozen desserts	2730 Greenville Hwy	open
Honey and Salt	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	2730 Greenville Highway	open
Hubba Hubba Smokehouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	2724 Greenville Hwy	open
Hunt Brothers Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	754 Upward Road	open
Kenmure Country Club Kenmure Country Club	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		10 Kenmure Dr	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	754 Upward Rd	open
Marigold Art Collective	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Spanish / tapas	2702 Greenville Hwy	open
Marked Tree Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom		623 Deep Gap Rd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	101 Commercial Blvd	open
Our Recipe Roots	Bakery	Bakery	2702C Greenville Hwy	open
Pizza Inn	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	712 Upward Rd	open
Season's At Highland Lake	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	86 Lily Pad Ln	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	41 Upward Crossing Drive	open
Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	220 N Highland Lake Rd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	576 Upward Rd	open
Waffle House Waffle House	Casual dining	Breakfast · American	747 Upward Rd	open
Woodfield Inn Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	2905 Greenville Hwy	open
Zaxby's Zaxby's	Quick service	Chicken / wings · American	30 Mcmurray Rd	open
Mojo's Bbq & Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	576 Upward Rd Unit 3	closed
Saint Paul Mountain Vineyard In Flat Rock	Coffee shop · Bar · Café	Coffee	2698C Greenville Hwy	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1996	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	3	3	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	2	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	4	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	6	5	4	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	8	7	5	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	10	9	8	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	8	7	6	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	10	9	6	2	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	9	8	3	4	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	9	8	4	3	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	11	10	4	4	2	—	NAICS2007
2010	12	11	5	4	2	—	NAICS2007
2011	13	12	5	5	2	—	NAICS2007
2012	15	15	7	6	2	—	NAICS2012
2013	14	14	6	6	2	—	NAICS2012
2014	16	16	6	8	2	—	NAICS2012
2015	15	15	6	8	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	13	13	5	7	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	16	16	7	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	13	13	5	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	11	11	4	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	12	12	5	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	11	11	4	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	12	12	6	4	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	13	13	7	4	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 28731. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
28726	2.2 mi	4	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.