BMIE Market 28739

Henderson County, North Carolina · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	20,843 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,049 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	9,584 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±469 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	19,786 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	11,204 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$73,582 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7,562 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	55.1 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,127 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±103 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$394,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±19,195 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	61.0 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	17 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 28739
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	11.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-10.5% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-5.6% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-29.2% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-61.4% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	17 (range 15–19) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.1 per year, r² 0.11) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	52 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	71 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	54 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	17 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 28739. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.11, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. North Carolina and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 688, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 52 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	70.9	71	40%	+28.4
Restaurant Opportunity Score	54.1	54	35%	+18.9
Market Momentum Score	17.3	17	25%	+4.3

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 71 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	20,843	82	40%	+32.8
Median household income (ACS)	73,582	53	40%	+21.1
Households (ACS)	9,584	85	20%	+16.9

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 54 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-5.6	21	35%	+7.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	8.2	80	25%	+19.9
Population (ACS)	20,843	82	20%	+16.4
Median household income (ACS)	73,582	53	20%	+10.6

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 17 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-10.5	18	50%	+9.1
10-year restaurant growth	-5.6	21	30%	+6.2
20-year restaurant growth	-29.2	10	20%	+2.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (26)

By cuisine

Coffee 4 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · American 2 · Breakfast 2 · Dessert 2 · Hot dogs 2 · Pizza 2 · Asian 1 · Bakery 1 · Burgers 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Chinese 1 · Italian 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mexican 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Seafood 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 14 · Bar 6 · Café 4 · Dessert 4 · Bakery 2 · Brewery / taproom 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Food truck 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Casual dining 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
A Southern Cup Fine Teas	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Tea / bubble tea · Coffee	1529 Greenville Hwy	open
Beijing Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	411 Kanuga Rd	open
Chef Starr, To Go	Restaurant (service type not stated)		442 Kanuga Rd	open
Dry Falls Brewing Co.	Brewery / taproom · Bar		425 Kanuga Rd	open
DuPont Canteen Ice Cream & More	Dessert · Bar	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Hot dogs	3945 Staton Rd	open
Ecusta Market and Cafe	Café	Coffee	877 Lenox Park Dr	open
Equestrian Academy At Above and Beyond	Bar		1126 Jeter Mountain Rd	open
Harvey's @ The Henderson Harvey's	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	201 3rd Ave W	open
HenDough Chicken & Donuts	Bakery · Dessert	Chicken / wings · Dessert · American	532 Kanuga Rd	open
Hongry Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1235 5th Ave W	open
Mariachi Fiesta Tapatia North carolina	Restaurant (service type not stated)		819 6th Ave W	open
Marinos Pizza House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	228 Kanuga Rd	open
Mean Mr. Mustard Express	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	605 Kanuga Rd.	open
Misty Morning Coffee	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee · Breakfast	2849 Laurel Park Hwy	open
Pepaw's BBQ	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	1207 County Rd 1127	open
Rascal and Darla the craft beer Yorkie Poos	Bar		2850 Evans Rd	open
Shurt's Pizza	Food truck	Pizza		open
Southern Streams CoffeeHouse	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	1628 5th Ave W	open
Taqueria Gonzalez	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	525 Kanuga Rd	open
The Baker's Box	Bakery	Bakery	430 Kanuga Rd	open
The Blend	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	105 Glendale Ave	open
The Tractor Shed Bar-B-Q	Restaurant (service type not stated)		140 White St	open
Trailside Brewing Co	Brewery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar		873 Lenox Park Dr	open
Vista Pizza Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1235 5th Ave W	open
Whit's Frozen Custard Whit's Frozen Custard, Hilliard, Ohio	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	602 Kanuga Rd	open
Yogurt World	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Hot dogs · Sandwiches · Burgers	228 Kanuga Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	44	44	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	29	29	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	34	34	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	34	34	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	25	23	10	12	1	—	NAICS1997
1999	17	16	6	10	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	20	19	9	9	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	21	20	8	11	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	21	20	6	13	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	25	24	10	13	1	—	NAICS2002
2004	25	22	9	12	1	2	NAICS2002
2005	21	19	7	12	—	2	NAICS2002
2006	22	20	8	12	—	2	NAICS2002
2007	24	24	11	12	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	24	24	10	14	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	22	22	9	13	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	22	22	9	11	2	—	NAICS2007
2011	20	20	6	12	2	—	NAICS2007
2012	19	19	5	12	2	—	NAICS2012
2013	18	18	5	11	2	—	NAICS2012
2014	19	18	6	10	2	—	NAICS2012
2015	19	18	4	12	2	—	NAICS2012
2016	20	19	5	12	2	—	NAICS2012
2017	21	18	5	10	3	—	NAICS2017
2018	20	19	7	9	3	—	NAICS2017
2019	17	16	6	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	19	18	6	8	4	—	NAICS2017
2021	19	18	5	9	4	—	NAICS2017
2022	21	18	3	10	5	—	NAICS2022
2023	20	17	—	10	5	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 28739. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.