BMIE Market 28778

Buncombe County, North Carolina · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	13,536 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,764 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	3,931 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±444 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	10,381 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,413 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$73,408 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7,334 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	40.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$994 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±145 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$303,300 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±34,768 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	32.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	12 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 28778
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	6.7 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+50.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+50.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+50.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	16 (range 14–18) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.5 per year, r² 0.75) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	66 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	65 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	73 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	59 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 28778. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.5 restaurants per year, r² 0.75, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. North Carolina and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 688, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 66 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	65.2	65	40%	+26.1
Restaurant Opportunity Score	73.4	73	35%	+25.7
Market Momentum Score	58.5	59	25%	+14.6

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 65 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	13,536	75	40%	+30.0
Median household income (ACS)	73,408	52	40%	+21.0
Households (ACS)	3,931	71	20%	+14.2

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 73 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	50	82	35%	+28.8
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	8.9	77	25%	+19.2
Population (ACS)	13,536	75	20%	+15.0
Median household income (ACS)	73,408	52	20%	+10.5

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 59 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	50	82	30%	+24.7
20-year restaurant growth	50	65	20%	+13.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (34)

By cuisine

Coffee 8 · American 6 · Breakfast 4 · Bakery 3 · Mexican 3 · Pizza 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Dessert 2 · Hot dogs 2 · BBQ 1 · Burgers 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Vegetarian 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 20 · Coffee shop 6 · Café 5 · Bakery 4 · Dessert 4 · Quick service 4 · Bar 2 · Casual dining 2 · Food truck 2 · Delivery-focused 1 · Specialty food shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Athens Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	Pizza · American	11 Patton Cove Rd	open
Best Partners, Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		209 Patton Cove Rd	open
Black Mountain Chocolate	Dessert		131 South Ave	open
Blunt Pretzels	Bakery	Bakery	120 Alexander Pl	open
Breakfast Shoppe	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast · American	2077-d US-70	open
Breakfast Shoppe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Breakfast	2345 US 70 Hwy	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	2333 US-70	open
Chowtime Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	2334 US 70 Hwy	open
Cowpie Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · Vegetarian		open
Daymakers Slider Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)		204 Whitson Ave	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee	2361 US-70	open
Dynamite Roasting Co. Production Facility	Coffee shop	Coffee	2744 US 70 Hwy	open
Eagles Wings	Bar	Chicken / wings	203 Kennedy Dr	open
El Lemon	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	2077 US 70 Hwy	open
Eye Scream Parlour	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Hot dogs	2064 US 70 Hwy	open
FroZen Monkey	Dessert	Dessert	131 South Ave	open
Hot Dog King	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Hot dogs · Sandwiches · American	2690 US-70	open
La Bamba Sazon Latino	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	2298 US 70 Hwy	open
Moments Coffee Bar & Eatery	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee · Breakfast	2304 US-70	open
Native Kitchen And Social Pub	Restaurant (service type not stated)		204 Whitson Ave	open
Okie Dokies Smokehouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	2375 US 70 Hwy	open
Ovenbird Kitchen	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Bakery · Coffee	131 South Ave	open
Papa Johns Pizza Papa John's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	2301 US-70	open
Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)		12 Patton Cove Rd	open
Roots And Branches	Bakery	Bakery	131 South Ave	open
Short Sleeves Coffee	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	222 Whitson Ave	open
Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	2299 U S Unit 70	open
Stonewall Bakery	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck		105 Pine Hill Dr	open
Subway Subway	Quick service	Sandwiches	2344 US Highway 70	open
Subway	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	2344 US Hwy 70	open
Taqueria La Perla	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other) · Mexican	2277 US-70	open
The Owl's Nest	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee · Breakfast	109 Upper College Rd	open
Valley Boyz Burgers	Food truck		2398 US-70	open
Creative Enterprises By Anne Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2304 US 70 Hwy	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	8	8	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	8	8	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	7	7	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	8	6	5	1	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	8	6	5	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	10	7	6	1	—	1	NAICS1997
2001	7	5	4	1	—	1	NAICS1997
2002	7	5	2	3	—	1	NAICS1997
2003	9	8	5	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	8	7	3	3	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	8	7	3	3	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	7	6	2	3	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	9	8	3	3	2	—	NAICS2002
2008	12	11	3	7	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	11	9	2	6	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	9	7	2	5	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	8	6	1	5	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	10	8	2	6	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	10	8	2	6	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	10	9	2	7	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	10	9	2	7	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	12	11	2	9	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	14	12	3	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	14	12	3	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	14	12	4	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	15	13	5	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	16	14	4	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	15	13	4	7	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	14	12	3	6	3	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 28778. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
28805	4.6 mi	68	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.