BMIE Market 32043

Clay County, Florida · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	34,562 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,896 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	13,042 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±795 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	24,632 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	9,751 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$84,145 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±12,540 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	40.2 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,545 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±194 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$337,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±19,866 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	229.3 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	23 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 32043
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	9.3 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+27.8% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+43.8% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+53.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+187.5% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	26 (range 22–29) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.8 per year, r² 0.74) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	80 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	82 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	81 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	78 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 32043. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.8 restaurants per year, r² 0.74, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Florida and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 918, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 80 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	81.6	82	40%	+32.6
Restaurant Opportunity Score	80.7	81	35%	+28.2
Market Momentum Score	78.4	78	25%	+19.6

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 82 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	34,562	91	40%	+36.6
Median household income (ACS)	84,145	67	40%	+26.8
Households (ACS)	13,042	91	20%	+18.2

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 81 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	43.8	79	35%	+27.5
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	6.7	86	25%	+21.4
Population (ACS)	34,562	91	20%	+18.3
Median household income (ACS)	84,145	67	20%	+13.4

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 78 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	27.8	82	50%	+41.1
10-year restaurant growth	43.8	79	30%	+23.6
20-year restaurant growth	53.3	68	20%	+13.7

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (69)

By cuisine

American 14 · Coffee 11 · Burgers 6 · Pizza 6 · Sandwiches 4 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 3 · Dessert 3 · Asian 2 · Bakery 2 · BBQ 2 · Breakfast 2 · Chinese 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Italian 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Mediterranean 2 · Mexican 2 · Caribbean 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Indian 1 · Japanese 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Middle Eastern 1 · Spanish / tapas 1 · Sushi 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 36 · Quick service 11 · Bar 10 · Coffee shop 8 · Café 7 · Casual dining 7 · Food truck 6 · Bakery 4 · Dessert 4 · Delivery-focused 3 · Specialty food shop 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Bearded Bean Coffee Truck	Coffee shop	Coffee	5785 County Road 209 S	open
Blimpie	Quick service		3254 Highway 17	open
Boogerville Hideout	Bar		6043 US-17	open
BoonDocks Rocks	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	2816 Henley Rd	open
Brass Tacks Coffee Co.	Restaurant (service type not stated)		318 Ferris St	open
Burger 17	Food truck	Burgers · American	6072 US-17	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	535 N Orange Ave	open
Chef X	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1600 Idlewild Ave	open
China Wok	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	1305 N Orange Ave	open
D'Fontana	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	324 Ferris St	open
Dalton's Sports Grill	Casual dining · Bar	American	2808 Henley Rd	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Delivery-focused · Quick service	Pizza	543 N.Orange Ave	open
Dunkin'	Coffee shop	Coffee	2915 Henley Rd	open
Dunkin'	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1010 Leonard C Taylor Pkwy	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	610 N Orange Ave	open
Dunkin' Donuts	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	3254 Highway 17	open
Emangeo's Brick Oven Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck	Pizza · Italian	2851 Henley Rd	open
Frankly, my dear	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)		1322 N Orange Ave	open
G's Slow Smoked Bbq Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	414 Walnut St	open
Good Time Charlie's Food Cove	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck		305 N Palmetto Ave	open
Great Faith Courtyard Cafe	Café	Coffee · Cajun, Creole, Southern	810 N Orange Ave	open
Green Cove Springs, Food Truck Fridays	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)		106 St Johns Ave	open
Hardee's Hardee's	Quick service	Burgers · American	1323 N Orange Ave	open
Hooligans Pub	Bar		2282 Washington Ave	open
Hungry Howie's Green Cove Hungry Howie's	Delivery-focused · Quick service	Pizza	810 N. Orange Ave.	open
Hungry Howie's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1604 Idlewild Ave	open
Johnny Copper Hemp and Vape Johnny Copper Kava Kafe	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	200a S Orange Ave	open
Kashew & Honey	Bakery	Bakery	2428 Glade Ln	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	1604 Idlewild Ave	open
L's Country Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)			open
La Casita Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	20 N Orange Ave	open
Larry's Giant Subs Larry's Giant Subs	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	1401 S Orange Ave	open
Latino Store La Casita Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		20 N Orange Ave	open
Lean Impact Nutrition	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Healthy / salads / bowls	1301 N Orange Ave Ste 102	open
Losco Management Group, Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2853 Henley Rd Ste 104	open
Magic Flavor	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean · Sandwiches	1600 Idlewild Ave	open
Mariachis Mexican Restaurant and Bar	Bar	Mexican · Latin American (other)	1301 N Orange Ave	open
Master Wok	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	2851 Henley Rd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	2825 Henley Rd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	1165 N Orange Ave	open
Mush Armenian Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean	1600 Idlewild Ave	open
Pan Asian Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian · Sushi · Japanese	1305 N Orange Ave	open
Papa Johns Papa John's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Delivery-focused	Pizza	206b s orange avenue	open
Pelican's SnoBalls and Ice Cream - Green Cove Springs	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	1100 Idlewild Ave	open
Present Tense Coffee & Books	Coffee shop	Coffee	2851 Henley Rd Ste 103	open
Red’s Wine Bar	Bar	Spanish / tapas	414 Walnut St	open
Rehab Saloon	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		3293 Us-17	open
Roger That Wings & Things	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	232 Walnut St	open
Slim's Cafe	Café	Coffee	1305 N Orange Ave	open
Spring Park Coffee	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee · Breakfast	328 Ferris St	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	2851 Henley Rd Suite 100	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	1305 North Orange Ave, US 17 Suite 128	open
Sunrise to Sunset	Casual dining	American · Breakfast	618 N Orange Ave	open
Sweet J’s Creamery	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	1305 N Orange Ave	open
Sweet Sensations Sweet Sensations	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Coffee · American	25 N Orange Ave	open
Taste of Jamaica Caribbean & Soul	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Caribbean	414 Walnut St	open
Tee Marie's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern	1100 Martin Luther King Jr Blvd	open
The Bar at Creek Life	Bar		2853 Henley Rd	open
The Blazin' Buffalo	Food truck		1318 N Orange Ave	open
The Bread Box	Bakery	Bakery	3539 Citation Dr	open
The Corner Pocket	Casual dining · Bar	American	14 N Magnolia Ave	open
The Pink Peony	Café · Coffee shop	Coffee	424 Walnut St	open
The Pond Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	659 Leonard C Taylor Pkwy	open
The Sheik Sandwiches & Subs	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Middle Eastern	422 S Orange Ave	open
The Turmeric Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Indian · American	3075 Highway 17	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	3266 Highway 17	open
Woody's Bar-B-Q	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	1301 N Orange Ave #103	open
Boondocks Grill & Bar	Casual dining · Bar		2808 Henley Rd	closed
Tailgaters Sports Bar Llc	Bar		1413 S Orange Ave	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	10	8	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1995	9	7	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	14	12	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	17	15	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1998	16	13	7	6	—	3	NAICS1997
1999	15	12	7	5	—	3	NAICS1997
2000	19	15	8	6	1	4	NAICS1997
2001	14	12	6	5	1	2	NAICS1997
2002	19	15	11	4	—	3	NAICS1997
2003	19	15	11	4	—	2	NAICS2002
2004	22	17	9	7	1	2	NAICS2002
2005	25	19	11	7	—	3	NAICS2002
2006	24	20	12	7	—	2	NAICS2002
2007	28	24	11	10	2	2	NAICS2002
2008	29	23	12	8	2	4	NAICS2007
2009	29	24	16	6	1	3	NAICS2007
2010	27	23	14	8	1	1	NAICS2007
2011	32	29	17	10	2	1	NAICS2007
2012	21	19	11	7	1	1	NAICS2012
2013	17	16	7	8	1	1	NAICS2012
2014	16	15	6	7	2	1	NAICS2012
2015	14	13	5	7	1	1	NAICS2012
2016	15	14	7	6	1	1	NAICS2012
2017	18	16	8	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	22	18	10	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	22	19	9	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	21	19	9	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	21	18	8	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	23	20	8	9	3	—	NAICS2022
2023	26	23	8	11	4	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 32043. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.