BMIE Market 32095

St. Johns County, Florida · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	21,399 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,955 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	7,302 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±615 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	7,302 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,063 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$136,038 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±14,549 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	42.7 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,676 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±423 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$525,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±50,261 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	57.4 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	36 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 32095
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	19.2 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+71.4% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+125.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+176.9% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+300.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	42 (range 36–48) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +2.0 per year, r² 0.84) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	86 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	87 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	80 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	93 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 32095. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +2.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.84, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Florida and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 918, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 86 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	86.7	87	40%	+34.7
Restaurant Opportunity Score	80.1	80	35%	+28.1
Market Momentum Score	93.3	93	25%	+23.3

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 87 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	21,399	82	40%	+33.0
Median household income (ACS)	136,038	94	40%	+37.7
Households (ACS)	7,302	80	20%	+16.0

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 80 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	125	95	35%	+33.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	16.8	47	25%	+11.6
Population (ACS)	21,399	82	20%	+16.5
Median household income (ACS)	136,038	94	20%	+18.8

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 93 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	71.4	94	50%	+46.8
10-year restaurant growth	125	95	30%	+28.4
20-year restaurant growth	176.9	90	20%	+18.1

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (53)

By cuisine

Coffee 10 · American 7 · Pizza 7 · Asian 5 · Bakery 4 · Breakfast 4 · Japanese 4 · Sandwiches 4 · Dessert 3 · Italian 3 · Latin American (other) 3 · Mexican 3 · British / Irish pub food 2 · Burgers 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Sushi 2 · Chinese 1 · German / Eastern European 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Seafood 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 30 · Bar 12 · Café 8 · Quick service 8 · Coffee shop 7 · Bakery 5 · Casual dining 5 · Dessert 5 · Specialty food shop 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Food truck 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Anejo Cocina Parkway - St Augustine Anejo Cocina Riverside	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	650 E Twincourt Trl	open
Bagel Base	Bakery · Quick service · Specialty food shop	Bakery · Sandwiches	520 W Twincourt Trail	open
Boba Tea House	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Tea / bubble tea · Coffee	7458 US-1	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	304 Paseo Vereda Dr	open
China King	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	7458 US-1 N	open
Cinco de Mayo	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	389 Paseo Reyes Dr	open
Club Fred	Bar			open
Confectionery Mary	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	137 Orchard Ln	open
Daddle Peppers Lounge & Restaurant	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		4742 US-1 N	open
Donovan's Irish Pub	Bar	British / Irish pub food	7440 US-1	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Coffee shop · Quick service · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	7440 US-1 N	open
Dutch Bros. Coffee Dutch Bros Coffee Jackson County	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	50 McCoy Way	open
Flask & Cannon - St. Augustine	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Italian	5700 US-1 N	open
Flying Sushi Flying Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese	630 E Twincourt Trail Ste 112	open
Fuse Frozen Co. Fuse, St. Simons Island	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	7474 US-1	open
Good Karma Coffee Cafe	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee · Breakfast	650 Market St	open
Hangar One Bistro Eatery & Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	German / Eastern European	4900 US-1 North	open
Hong Kong Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	4660 US Highway 1 N	open
Jersey Mike's Subs Jersey Mike's Subs	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	120 Palencia Village Dr Ste 106	open
Joe's Crab Shack, Jacksonville Fl	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar			open
Joint Bagel Co	Bakery · Quick service · Specialty food shop	Bakery · Sandwiches	389 Paseo Reyes Dr Ste 201	open
Kings Head British Pub	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	British / Irish pub food	6460 US Highway 1 N	open
KUTIE Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast · Sandwiches · Coffee	125 Center Place Way Ste 102	open
Lakeside Bistro Bar and Grill	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	475 Commerce Lake Dr	open
Lava Dome Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Breakfast	504 St Croix St	open
Little Caesars Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	4564 US Highway 1 N	open
Mister Softee Northeast Florida	Dessert · Food truck	Ice cream / frozen desserts	545 International Golf Pkwy	open
Mr. Dong Dong's Culo Bar	Bar		327 Palencia Club Dr	open
Pacific Asian Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian · Sushi · Japanese	159 Palencia Village Dr	open
Papa Johns Papa John's Pizza	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	10440 us 1 north	open
Parlor Doughnuts Parlor Doughnuts	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	630 E Twincourt Trail Ste 101	open
pump station St. Augustine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American		open
Refuel Coffee Co.	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	35 Summerlin Ln	open
Regalo Dutch Bros. Coffee	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	50 McCoy Way	open
Rosati's Pizza St. Augustine Rosati's Pizza St. Augustine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	520 W Twincourt Trail	open
Saint Johns Pizza Caffe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	125 Center Place Way	open
Salsas Cocina Palencia \| Saint Augustine Salsas Cocina Palatka	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	120 Palencia Village Dr	open
Sbarro	Quick service		125 Center Place Way	open
Slice Palencia	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	163 Palencia Village Dr #101	open
Smoothie King	Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Juice / smoothies	7474 US 1 N Ste 102	open
St Marys Seafood & More St Marys Seafood & More	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Seafood · American	705 Hortons Trce	open
Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	155 Palencia Village Dr	open
Swami Pizza Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		389 Paseo Reyes Dr Ste 205	open
Teriyaki Ha Ha	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Asian	10440 US-1	open
The Salty Pitt Stop	Bar · Casual dining		The Pittman Home	open
The Spot Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Coffee · American	4508 US-1 N	open
The Wobbly Whale Public House	Bar · Casual dining		6460 US-1	open
Toto Lottery	Restaurant (service type not stated)		219 Sandy Creek Pkwy	open
Waffle House Waffle House	Casual dining	American · Breakfast	219 Sandy Creek Pkwy	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	2260 International Golf Pkwy	open
Your Pie Palencia	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	389 Paseo Reyes Dr Ste 205	open
ZENSHI Handcrafted Sushi Zenshi Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	7462 US-1 N	open
Zero Quarter	Coffee shop	Coffee	1000 US 1	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	13	9	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1995	14	10	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1996	16	13	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1997	24	22	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1998	29	26	13	12	1	2	NAICS1997
1999	18	16	6	10	—	1	NAICS1997
2000	18	15	6	9	—	1	NAICS1997
2001	14	13	5	8	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	15	15	7	7	1	—	NAICS1997
2003	15	13	5	8	—	1	NAICS2002
2004	17	14	5	9	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	15	12	4	8	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	15	12	4	8	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	16	13	6	6	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	17	14	7	6	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	15	13	5	7	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	17	14	8	4	2	—	NAICS2007
2011	20	17	9	6	2	—	NAICS2007
2012	20	18	7	9	2	—	NAICS2012
2013	17	16	7	7	2	—	NAICS2012
2014	17	16	9	6	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	17	15	8	6	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	18	16	9	6	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	18	14	7	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	25	21	12	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	24	22	14	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	28	26	13	10	3	—	NAICS2017
2021	29	27	16	8	3	—	NAICS2017
2022	33	29	12	13	4	—	NAICS2022
2023	41	36	15	16	4	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 32095. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.