BMIE Market 32226

Duval County, Florida · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	21,256 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,913 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	7,444 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±527 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	15,761 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	6,068 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$110,179 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±12,164 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	40.7 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,184 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±225 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$362,100 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±13,219 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	85.6 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	21 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 32226
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	7.6 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+75.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+31.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+250.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+162.5% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	19 (range 13–24) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.4 per year, r² 0.23) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	82 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	84 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	77 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	88 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 32226. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.4 restaurants per year, r² 0.23, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Florida and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 918, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 82 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	83.7	84	40%	+33.5
Restaurant Opportunity Score	77.1	77	35%	+27.0
Market Momentum Score	87.5	88	25%	+21.9

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 84 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	21,256	82	40%	+33.0
Median household income (ACS)	110,179	87	40%	+34.7
Households (ACS)	7,444	80	20%	+16.1

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 77 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	31.3	72	35%	+25.1
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	9.9	73	25%	+18.2
Population (ACS)	21,256	82	20%	+16.5
Median household income (ACS)	110,179	87	20%	+17.3

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 88 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	75	94	50%	+46.9
10-year restaurant growth	31.3	72	30%	+21.5
20-year restaurant growth	250	95	20%	+19.1

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (49)

By cuisine

American 11 · Seafood 6 · Coffee 5 · Burgers 4 · Pizza 4 · Sandwiches 4 · Asian 3 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 3 · Chicken / wings 3 · Thai 3 · BBQ 2 · Dessert 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Bakery 1 · Breakfast 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Italian 1 · Japanese 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mexican 1 · Sushi 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 35 · Quick service 10 · Café 4 · Coffee shop 4 · Bar 3 · Casual dining 3 · Juice, smoothie, tea 3 · Bakery 2 · Dessert 2 · Specialty food shop 2 · Other 2 · Delivery-focused 1 · Food truck 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Around The Country Hotdogs And Sausages	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Hot dogs	12125 New Berlin Rd	open
Ash-leah Enterprises Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		9716 Heckscher Dr	open
Billy Jack's BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	9560 Heckscher Dr	open
Black Hammock Island Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated)		15760 Shellcracker Rd	open
Buckeye Terminal Jacksonville	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2617 Zoo Pkwy	open
Bunker	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	5672 Channel View Blvd	open
Chowder Ted's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	5215 Heckscher Dr	open
Crowley Logistics	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3700 Port Jacksonville Pkwy	open
Dicks Wings and Grill - Yellow Bluff	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	12400 Yellow Bluff Rd	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	12529 Yellow Bluff Road	open
Dunkin Dunkin'	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	3515 Zoo Pkwy	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Quick service		12741 Yellow Bluff Road	open
El Agave Azul Food Truck	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service		3600 Port Jacksonville Pkwy	open
Fish at the Palms	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	6359 Heckscher Dr	open
Flyed Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	2467 Faye Road #10	open
Guy’s Burger Joint	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers		open
Jaxport Blount Island Terminals	Restaurant (service type not stated)		9620 Dave Rawls Blvd	open
K Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern	10100 Granite Place	open
Kappuccinos Breakfast & Sports Bar	Bar · Casual dining	Breakfast	11257 Alta Dr #401	open
Ken's Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	11230 New Berlin Rd	open
KT's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	12400 Yellow Bluff Rd Ste 106	open
Las Niñas Cocina Mexicana	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Casual dining	Mexican · Latin American (other) · American	2467 Faye Road	open
Life Navigators	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian		open
Lilypad Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)		9429 Heckscher Dr	open
Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	2733 Starratt Rd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · American	12565 Yellow Bluff Rd	open
Mickey Seafood	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	4438 Apollo Ave	open
Miss Marilyn Louise Inc	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Seafood · Sandwiches	5084 Heckscher Dr	open
Nagasaki Japanese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	12553 Yellow Bluff Rd # 1	open
New Berlin Rd. & Yellow Bluff Rd. Scooter's Coffee	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	3080 New Berlin Rd.	open
North Jetty Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Burgers	10980 Heckscher Dr	open
Old Soul Donut Company	Bakery · Dessert · Café	Dessert · Coffee · Bakery	11230 New Berlin Rd	open
Palms Fish Camp Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	6359 Heckscher Dr	open
Pat Thai Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai	2467 Faye Rd	open
Patio & Pizza Outdoor Furnishings	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza		open
Paulie's at Dames Point	Other	Sandwiches	4518 Irving Rd	open
Sandollar Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	9716 Heckscher Dr	open
Scooter's Coffee Scooter's Coffee	Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Coffee · Juice / smoothies	3080 New Berlin Rd.	open
Sharky's Wings & Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)		12400 Yellow Bluff Rd	open
Simply Southern	Other	Sandwiches	11230 New Berlin Rd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	12400 Yellow Bluff Road Suite 206	open
Tea&co	Juice, smoothie, tea · Coffee shop · Café	Tea / bubble tea · Coffee	12529 Yellow Bluff Rd	open
Thai Nine Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	2467 Faye Road	open
Tony's Kitchen & Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		2467 Faye Rd	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	10101 New Berlin Rd	open
Zaxby's Zaxby's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	3175 New Berlin Road	open
Aunt M's Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern	5001 Heckscher Dr	closed
Capri Diner, Breakfast & Lunch	Casual dining	American	2467 Faye Rd Ste 1	closed
Mother's Cafe & Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern	2467 Faye Rd	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	8	8	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	7	7	5	2	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	7	7	5	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	6	6	4	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	9	7	5	2	—	2	NAICS1997
2002	6	5	5	—	—	1	NAICS1997
2003	8	6	4	2	—	1	NAICS2002
2004	9	8	6	2	—	1	NAICS2002
2005	8	7	4	3	—	1	NAICS2002
2006	5	4	3	1	—	1	NAICS2002
2007	8	6	6	—	—	2	NAICS2002
2008	11	9	7	1	1	2	NAICS2007
2009	9	8	6	2	—	1	NAICS2007
2010	13	12	8	4	—	1	NAICS2007
2011	17	15	12	2	1	1	NAICS2007
2012	14	14	9	4	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	18	16	8	5	3	—	NAICS2012
2014	14	13	8	3	2	—	NAICS2012
2015	14	13	8	3	2	—	NAICS2012
2016	12	12	9	2	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	16	16	10	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	12	12	9	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	15	14	10	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	13	13	8	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	15	13	10	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	19	18	11	4	3	—	NAICS2022
2023	22	21	11	7	3	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 32226. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.