BMIE Market 32234

Duval County, Florida · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	9,678 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,702 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	3,272 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±401 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	6,606 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,679 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$87,331 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±12,751 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	32.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,096 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±345 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$262,800 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±24,495 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	152.1 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	9 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 32234
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	10.6 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+50.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+80.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+125.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+200.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	10 (range 8–12) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.3 per year, r² 0.74) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	78 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	70 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	78 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	89 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 32234. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.74, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Florida and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 918, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 78 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	70.0	70	40%	+28.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	78.0	78	35%	+27.3
Market Momentum Score	89.2	89	25%	+22.3

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 70 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	9,678	70	40%	+28.1
Median household income (ACS)	87,331	71	40%	+28.2
Households (ACS)	3,272	68	20%	+13.6

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 78 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	80	89	35%	+31.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	9.3	75	25%	+18.7
Population (ACS)	9,678	70	20%	+14.1
Median household income (ACS)	87,331	71	20%	+14.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 89 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	50	90	50%	+45.1
10-year restaurant growth	80	89	30%	+26.7
20-year restaurant growth	125	87	20%	+17.4

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (19)

By cuisine

American 7 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Burgers 2 · Chicken / wings 2 · Coffee 2 · Pizza 2 · BBQ 1 · Breakfast 1 · Caribbean 1 · Dessert 1 · Italian 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Seafood 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 10 · Quick service 5 · Bar 3 · Casual dining 3 · Café 2 · Dessert 1 · Food truck 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Annette's cafe on wheels	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	860 US-90	open
Arby's	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches · American	1024 US Highway 301 S	open
Bojangles Bojangles	Quick service	Chicken / wings · Cajun, Creole, Southern	17110 Brandy Branch Rd	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	1093 US-301	open
Candy Island	Dessert	Dessert	1901 Wells Road	open
Cousin Willie's Smokehouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	280 US-90	open
Emma's Caribbean Bar & Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Caribbean	8771 US-301	open
Everybody's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Cajun, Creole, Southern	35 US-90	open
Godfather's Pizza Express	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	17110 Brandy Branch Rd	open
Hurricane Cr210	Casual dining · Bar	American	3055 County Road 121	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	8391 Us 301	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	1077 S. Us 301 Hwy	open
Papa Seans Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	615 W US-90	open
Subway Subway	Quick service	Sandwiches	1050 301 South, Pilot Travel Center #87	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	14801 Normandy Blvd	open
Tala Bay Seafood & Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Seafood · American	8771 US-301	open
The Cafe Fellowship - McKnight Family Ministry	Café · Juice, smoothie, tea	Coffee · Juice / smoothies	342 McClelland Rd	open
The Shack	Bar		8771 US 301	open
Waffle House Waffle House	Casual dining	American · Breakfast	1066 US-301	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	3	3	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	3	3	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	3	3	2	—	1	—	NAICS1997
1999	4	4	2	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	5	4	2	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	5	4	2	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	4	4	2	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	4	4	2	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	4	4	2	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	6	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	7	7	5	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	7	7	2	5	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	9	9	4	5	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	6	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	7	7	4	3	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	6	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	6	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	6	5	2	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	7	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	8	7	2	5	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	7	7	2	5	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	6	6	—	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	6	6	—	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	7	7	3	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	7	7	3	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	8	8	4	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	9	9	4	5	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	11	9	3	6	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 32234. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.