BMIE Market 32258

Duval County, Florida · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	40,408 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3,935 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	15,897 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,100 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	26,759 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	10,853 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$102,204 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±11,612 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	36.2 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,928 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±123 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$370,700 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±13,603 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	17.8 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	51 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 32258
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	9.0 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-3.8% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+59.4% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+2,450.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+5,000.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	72 (range 62–81) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +2.6 per year, r² 0.78) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	78 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	89 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	81 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	58 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 32258. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +2.6 restaurants per year, r² 0.78, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Florida and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 918, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 78 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	89.5	89	40%	+35.8
Restaurant Opportunity Score	80.8	81	35%	+28.3
Market Momentum Score	57.6	58	25%	+14.4

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 89 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	40,408	94	40%	+37.6
Median household income (ACS)	102,204	82	40%	+32.9
Households (ACS)	15,897	94	20%	+18.9

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 81 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	59.4	86	35%	+30.1
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	12.6	62	25%	+15.5
Population (ACS)	40,408	94	20%	+18.8
Median household income (ACS)	102,204	82	20%	+16.5

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 58 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-3.8	24	50%	+11.9
10-year restaurant growth	59.4	86	30%	+25.8
20-year restaurant growth	2,450	100	20%	+20.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (92)

By cuisine

American 16 · Asian 10 · Bakery 10 · Sandwiches 10 · Coffee 8 · Burgers 6 · Chicken / wings 6 · Dessert 6 · Mexican 6 · Healthy / salads / bowls 5 · Japanese 5 · Pizza 5 · BBQ 4 · Chinese 4 · Juice / smoothies 4 · Seafood 4 · Sushi 4 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 3 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 3 · Breakfast 2 · Italian 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Steakhouse 2 · Thai 2 · Hawaiian / Pacific 1 · Indian 1 · Mediterranean 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 50 · Quick service 17 · Bar 13 · Bakery 11 · Casual dining 10 · Dessert 10 · Café 7 · Other 5 · Juice, smoothie, tea 4 · Coffee shop 3 · Specialty food shop 3 · Food truck 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Catering 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
51 Comfort Cookhouse	Food truck · Catering · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	American · Coffee · Cajun, Creole, Southern	11877 Fayal Dr	open
Abe's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	14965 Old Saint Augustine Rd	open
Akel's Deli	Café	Coffee	12926 Gran Bay Pkwy W	open
Amaretti Desserts	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	14965 Old St Augustine Rd	open
Applebee's Applebee's Grill & Bar	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	14560 Old St Augustine Rd	open
Bamboo Wok	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	13820 Old St Augustine Rd	open
Barney's Burger Barn	Quick service · Casual dining · Bar	Burgers		open
Bono's Pit Bar-B-Q Bono's Pit Bar-B-Q	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Steakhouse · American	12620 Bartram Park Blvd	open
Brewz Bartram Park	Bar		14866 Old St Augustine Rd Ste 101	open
Brooklyn Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	13820 Old St Augustine Rd #121	open
Casa Maria Tequila Bar & Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	14965 Old St Augustine Rd Unit 106	open
Cava	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean	13920 Old St Augustine Rd	open
Chili's Grill & Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)		13891 Old Saint Augustine Road	open
China 99	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	14866 Old St Augustine Rd	open
Chipotle Mexican Grill Chipotle Mexican Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	13920 Old Saint Augustine Rd Ste 105	open
Chow Down Alley	Casual dining	Breakfast · American	14775 Old St Augustine Rd	open
Clark's Fish Camp Seafood Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	12903 Hood Landing Rd	open
D&J's Place	Bar		12469 Blueberry Woods Cir W	open
Dairy Queen Dairy Queen	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	13966 Village Lake Cir	open
Dante's Place	Bar		14965 Old St Augustine Rd	open
Daruma Japanese Steak House & Sushi Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese	12640 Bartram Park Blvd	open
Duck Donuts Duck Donuts	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	13820 Old St Augustine Rd Unit 141	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee	12709 Bartram Park Blvd	open
Fhs-1, Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		12735 Gran Bay Pkwy W Ste 150	open
Firehouse Restaurant Group, Inc.	Restaurant (service type not stated)		12735 Gran Bay Pkwy W Ste 150	open
First Watch First Watch	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast · American	12540 Bartram Park Blvd	open
Fish n' Chipz	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	13830 Old St Augustine Rd	open
Five Guys Five Guys	Quick service	Burgers · American	13760 St. Augustine Road	open
Ford's Garage Ford's Garage	Casual dining · Bar	Burgers · American		open
Fruit Time	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls · Coffee	13830 Gran Bay Pkwy	open
George's crab shack	Quick service · Dessert	Seafood	12808 Gran Bay Pkwy W	open
Heavenly Cookies	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	13924 Egrets Nest Dr	open
Hurricane Grill & Wings Hurricane Grill & Wings	Casual dining · Bar	American	12547 Bartram Park Blvd #205	open
Hurricane Grill & Wings	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Chicken / wings · Sandwiches	12547 Bartram Park Blvd 205	open
It's Just Wings	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	13891 Old Saint Augustine Road	open
Jersey Mike's Jersey Mike's Subs	Quick service · Specialty food shop	Sandwiches	13820 Old St Augustine Rd	open
Jimmy John's Jimmy John's	Quick service · Specialty food shop	Sandwiches	12553 Bartram Park Blvd Ste. 301	open
Juice Tap	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	14965 Old St Augustine Rd Unit 104	open
kakes by katie	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4997 Harp St	open
Kido's Skull & Crossbones Pub	Bar		Somewhere in Mandarin	open
Kruti Kreations LLC	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	12055 Marldon Ln	open
La Nopalera Mexican Restaurant La Nopalera	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	12640 Bartram Park Blvd #5	open
Larry's Giant Subs Larry's Giant Subs	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · American	14866 Old St Augustine Rd	open
Legacy Ale Works	Brewery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar		14965 Old St Augustine Rd Ste 129-130	open
Lemongrass Thai Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	14866 Old St Augustine Rd #116	open
Mar's Kitchen Mandarin, Fl.	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Cajun, Creole, Southern		open
McDonald's McDonald's	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Burgers	13939 Old St Augustine Rd	open
Mikado	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Chinese · Sushi · Steakhouse · Asian	10460 Avenues Walk Blvd	open
MOD Pizza MOD Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Pizza	12547 Bartram Park Blvd	open
Moes Southwest Grill Moe's Southwest Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	12681 Bartram Park Blvd	open
Moore's BBQ Food Truck	Food truck	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern		open
New York Subs	Other	Sandwiches	13820 Old Saint Augustine Rd Ste 141	open
Njc Investments Usa Inc	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	12724 Gran Bay Pkwy W Ste 410	open
Oasis Cafe	Casual dining	American	14550 Old Saint Augustine Rd	open
Panda Express Panda Express México	Quick service	Chinese · Asian	12697 Bartram Park Blvd	open
Panera Bread Panera Bread	Bakery · Café	Bakery · Sandwiches · Coffee	13740 Old St Augustine Rd	open
PDQ PDQ Chicken	Quick service	Chicken / wings · American	13702 Old St Augustine Rd	open
Pei Wei	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Healthy / salads / bowls	12553 Bartram Park Blvd Ste 304	open
Pie95 Pizza	Quick service	Pizza		open
Pita Pit	Other	Sandwiches	14866 Old St Augustine Rd, Ste 105	open
Planet Smoothie Planet Smoothie	Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls	14866 Old St Augustine Rd Ste 114	open
Poke Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Hawaiian / Pacific · Seafood · Healthy / salads / bowls · Asian	14866 Old St Augustine Rd #102	open
Pollo Tropical	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Latin American (other) · Chicken / wings	13776 Old St Augustine Rd	open
Quiznos	Other	Sandwiches	14965 Old Saint Augustine Rd	open
Raices	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	13820 Old St Augustine Rd	open
Randeez Nutz Express	Restaurant (service type not stated)		14985 Old Saint Augustine Rd Unit 108	open
Relish Relish - Valdosta	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · American	14866 Old St Augustine Rd	open
Rosalia's Italian Restaurant and Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	14965 Old St Augustine Rd	open
Sassy Kat Goods	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	12020 Hood Landing Rd	open
Smack Wings	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Chicken / wings · American	13820 Old St Augustine Rd	open
Spice Grill Indian Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Indian · American	12709 Bartram Park Blvd	open
Spliff's Gastropub	Casual dining · Bar		14985 Old St Augustine Rd #108	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Café · Coffee shop · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	13776 Old St Augustine Rd	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	14560 Old St Augustine Rd	open
Store 39177 Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		10251 Shops Ln	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	10251 Shops Ln	open
Sushi House & Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	13820 Old St Augustine Rd	open
Swati's Cakes	Bakery	Bakery	12024 Marldon Ln	open
Sweet Sushi and Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	14965 Old St Augustine Rd Unit 124	open
TAKHRAI THAI	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	12709 Bartram Park Blvd	open
TCBY	Other · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	13820 Old Saint Augustine Rd	open
The Pig Bar-B-Q	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	14985 Old Saint Augustine Rd Unit 108	open
Thompson King Holdings	Restaurant (service type not stated)		13720 Old St Augustine Rd Ste 8504	open
Top Dawg Tavern Top Dawg Tavern - Village at Sandhill	Casual dining · Bar		13820 Old St Augustine Rd Ste 417	open
Tropical Smoothie Cafe Tropical Smoothie Cafe	Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café · Bar	Juice / smoothies · Sandwiches · Healthy / salads / bowls · Coffee	13280 Old St. Augustine Road	open
Tsunami sushi &Hibachi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Asian · Sushi	12553 Bartram Park Blvd #304	open
Valhalla Whiskey	Winery / distillery / taproom		4359 Hollygate Dr	open
Walmart Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	10251 Shops Ln	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	13928 Bartram Run Drive	open
Zaxby's Zaxby's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	13973 Village Lake Cir	open
Chunky Tomato	Restaurant (service type not stated)		12740 Gran Bay Pkwy W	closed
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	13720 Old Saint Augustine Rd Unit 501	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	3	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	4	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	4	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	4	3	1	1	1	—	NAICS1997
2002	3	1	—	—	1	—	NAICS1997
2003	3	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	6	3	3	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	4	3	3	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	11	10	8	1	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	17	15	8	5	2	1	NAICS2002
2008	23	19	9	6	3	1	NAICS2007
2009	25	22	9	9	3	1	NAICS2007
2010	30	24	12	10	2	1	NAICS2007
2011	36	31	14	16	1	1	NAICS2007
2012	33	30	14	15	1	1	NAICS2012
2013	34	32	15	16	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	33	29	14	13	2	—	NAICS2012
2015	44	38	18	16	2	—	NAICS2012
2016	43	37	13	20	2	—	NAICS2012
2017	59	49	20	24	3	—	NAICS2017
2018	64	53	18	29	4	—	NAICS2017
2019	59	51	18	27	5	—	NAICS2017
2020	61	51	19	26	5	—	NAICS2017
2021	64	53	21	24	8	—	NAICS2017
2022	66	57	20	27	10	—	NAICS2022
2023	61	51	18	24	9	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 32258. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
32257	4.9 mi	61	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.