BMIE Market 32266

Duval County, Florida · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	7,168 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±286 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	3,229 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±231 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	7,037 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,493 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$119,294 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±10,570 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	43.1 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,763 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±259 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$670,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±50,234 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	2.3 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	28 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 32266
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	24.2 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+3.7% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+75.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+100.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+211.1% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	37 (range 32–42) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +1.3 per year, r² 0.76) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	72 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	76 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	66 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	73 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 32266. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +1.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.76, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Florida and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 918, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 72 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	76.0	76	40%	+30.4
Restaurant Opportunity Score	65.6	66	35%	+23.0
Market Momentum Score	73.0	73	25%	+18.3

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 76 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	7,168	66	40%	+26.3
Median household income (ACS)	119,294	90	40%	+36.0
Households (ACS)	3,229	68	20%	+13.6

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 66 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	75	89	35%	+31.0
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	39.1	14	25%	+3.4
Population (ACS)	7,168	66	20%	+13.2
Median household income (ACS)	119,294	90	20%	+18.0

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 73 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	3.7	60	50%	+30.0
10-year restaurant growth	75	89	30%	+26.6
20-year restaurant growth	100	82	20%	+16.5

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (72)

By cuisine

American 10 · Coffee 7 · Asian 5 · Japanese 5 · Seafood 5 · Sushi 5 · Breakfast 4 · Italian 4 · Juice / smoothies 4 · Pizza 4 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 3 · Mexican 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Bakery 2 · BBQ 2 · Burgers 2 · Chicken / wings 2 · Dessert 2 · Healthy / salads / bowls 2 · Filipino 1 · Hawaiian / Pacific 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Peruvian 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 48 · Bar 14 · Casual dining 12 · Quick service 9 · Café 5 · Coffee shop 4 · Juice, smoothie, tea 4 · Bakery 3 · Dessert 2 · Food truck 1 · Specialty food shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
3Natives	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Healthy / salads / bowls	628-3 Atlantic Blvd	open
Al's Pizza Al's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	240 3rd St N	open
Al's Pizza Partners Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		207 Atlantic Blvd	open
Alleycakes Dessert Company	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	1517 Atlantic Blvd	open
Atomic Flying Fish	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Seafood	309 Atlantic Blvd	open
Badger Restaurant Group, Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		200 1st St Ste 204	open
Bar-B-Q Sticks	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Filipino · BBQ	120 1/2, Lemon St	open
Beaches Nutrition	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	1487 Atlantic Blvd	open
Bodega Bar	Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea · Bar	Coffee · Juice / smoothies	241 Atlantic Blvd #103	open
Bono's Barbq in Neptune Beach Bono's Pit Bar-B-Q	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern	1275 Atlantic Blvd	open
Burgerfi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	628 Atlantic Blvd	open
Chipotle Mexican Grill Chipotle	Quick service		628 Atlantic Blvd	open
Corner Dining Llc Dba Mezza Luna	Restaurant (service type not stated)		246 3rd St	open
Cousins Maine Lobster Restaurant - Neptune Beach	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	630 Atlantic Blvd Ste 14	open
Denny's	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Breakfast · Coffee · American	200 3rd St	open
Dkss Subs, Llc Dba Firehouse Subs	Restaurant (service type not stated)		200 1st St Ste 204	open
Doro	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	106 1st St	open
Dragonfly Lounge	Bar		1537 Atlantic Blvd	open
El Agave Azul - Neptune Beach, Fl	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	229 3rd St	open
Ellen's Kitchen	Casual dining	American · Breakfast	241 3rd St	open
Fancy Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	251 3rd St	open
Firehouse Subs Firehouse Subs	Quick service · Specialty food shop	Sandwiches	233 3rd St	open
Firehouse Subs Red Bug Lake Road	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	200 First St Ste 204	open
Flying Iguana Taqueria and Tequila Bar	Bar	Latin American (other) · Mexican	207 Atlantic Blvd	open
Gold Coast Sushi & Bar Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		200 3rd St	open
Grumpy's Restaurant Grumpy's Restaurant	Casual dining	American · Breakfast	200 3rd St	open
Hala Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1451 Atlantic Blvd	open
Hawkers Asian Street Food Hawkers Asian Street Food	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	241 Atlantic Blvd	open
Hc Management & Marketing Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		700 3rd St Ste 202	open
Hurricane Grill & Wings Hurricane Grill & Wings	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	628-6 Atlantic Blvd	open
Hwy 10 & Penman Whataburger	Quick service		1201 ATLANTIC BLVD	open
Island Girl Wine and Cigar Bar	Bar		108 First St	open
Jacksonville Beaches Bars - JacksonvilleBeaches.info	Bar		1 Jimmy Buffett Memorial Highway	open
Jeff's Bagel Run Jeff's Bagel Run	Bakery	Bakery	628 Atlantic Blvd	open
Kamiya 86	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi	200 3rd St	open
Kfc	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	626 Atlantic Blvd	open
Lemon Bar	Bar · Casual dining		120 Atlantic Blvd	open
Lillie's Coffee Bar	Café	Coffee	200 1st St	open
Mamasamas	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	1451 Atlantic Blvd	open
Meet Me Here Coffee	Coffee shop · Food truck	Coffee	1451 Atlantic Blvd	open
Mezza Luna Ristorante	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Mediterranean	110 First St	open
New Leaf School For Change	Restaurant (service type not stated)		407 3rd St	open
Nippers	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1401 Atlantic Blvd	open
North Beach Fish Camp	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	100 First St	open
Northern Star Installations	Restaurant (service type not stated)		806 3rd St	open
Papa Murphy's Take 'N' Bake Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	628 Atlantic Blvd Ste 5	open
Pete's Bar	Bar		117 First St	open
Popeyes Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen	Quick service	Chicken / wings · Cajun, Creole, Southern	524 Atlantic Blvd	open
Ptg Inc. Of Atlantic Beach	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	Seafood	218 1st St	open
Renna's Pizza Renna's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	630 Atlantic Blvd	open
Robeks Robeks	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		628 3rd St	open
Robeks Fresh Juices & Smoothies	Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Juice / smoothies · Coffee	628-3 Atlantic Blvd	open
Rocco's Italian Restaurant	Quick service		1401 Atlantic Blvd	open
Shorelines Management Group Incorporated	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1585 Atlantic Blvd	open
Sky Labor Contractor Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2300 Marsh Point Rd # 301	open
Sliders Seafood Grille	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Seafood	2113 Florida Blvd	open
Southern Grounds and Co Southern Grounds & Co.	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop	Coffee	200 First St	open
Sr. Ceviche	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Peruvian	229 3rd Street	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Quick service · Café	Coffee	327 Atlantic Blvd	open
Sugar Rush Confections	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Dessert	229 3rd St	open
The Local The Local	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	301 Atlantic Blvd	open
The Loop Pizza Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	211 3rd St	open
Tiki Hut	Casual dining · Bar		602 Cherry St	open
Tokyo Ramen & Poke	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Healthy / salads / bowls · Hawaiian / Pacific	630 Atlantic Blvd	open
Tropical Smoothie Cafe Tropical Smoothie Cafe	Quick service		628 Atlantic Blvd.	open
Tsaocaa Neptune: Fried Chicken and Asian Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies · Asian	255 3rd St	open
Vicious Biscuit Vicious Biscuit	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast · Sandwiches · Cajun, Creole, Southern	211 3rd St	open
Whataburger Whataburger	Quick service	Burgers · American	1201 ATLANTIC BLVD	open
Wipeouts Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	1585 Atlantic Blvd	open
Yamasaki modern sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	556 Atlantic Blvd	open
ZENSHI Handcrafted Sushi Zenshi Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	580 Atlantic Blvd	open
Dos Vatos Tacos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	1451 Atlantic Blvd	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	9	9	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	10	10	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	12	12	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	15	13	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1998	19	17	10	6	—	2	NAICS1997
1999	15	12	6	4	1	3	NAICS1997
2000	12	11	7	3	—	1	NAICS1997
2001	14	12	8	3	—	2	NAICS1997
2002	12	10	5	3	1	2	NAICS1997
2003	16	14	6	4	3	2	NAICS2002
2004	18	16	8	3	4	2	NAICS2002
2005	17	15	7	3	4	2	NAICS2002
2006	13	12	5	3	3	1	NAICS2002
2007	16	15	8	3	3	1	NAICS2002
2008	17	16	7	5	4	1	NAICS2007
2009	17	16	8	4	4	1	NAICS2007
2010	18	17	8	4	5	1	NAICS2007
2011	20	19	11	4	4	1	NAICS2007
2012	17	15	9	4	2	1	NAICS2012
2013	19	16	10	4	2	1	NAICS2012
2014	22	20	13	4	3	1	NAICS2012
2015	19	18	11	3	4	1	NAICS2012
2016	21	19	12	4	3	2	NAICS2012
2017	26	24	14	7	3	—	NAICS2017
2018	30	27	14	10	3	3	NAICS2017
2019	32	30	18	9	3	—	NAICS2017
2020	29	27	16	8	3	—	NAICS2017
2021	32	29	16	9	4	—	NAICS2017
2022	30	27	13	10	4	—	NAICS2022
2023	31	28	14	10	4	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 32266. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
32250	2.6 mi	137	2023
32233	2.8 mi	49	2023
32224	4.5 mi	66	2023
32227	5.0 mi	—

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.