BMIE Market 32309

Leon County, Florida · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	33,544 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,747 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	13,070 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±639 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	30,159 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	12,864 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$113,412 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7,898 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	42.0 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,376 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±88 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$376,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±8,806 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	122.0 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	27 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 32309
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	6.6 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+12.5% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+8.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+237.5% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+440.0% DERIVED: 2000 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	25 (range 22–28) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.1 per year, r² 0.06) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	79 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	90 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	74 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	70 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 32309. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.06, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Florida and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 918, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 79 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	89.7	90	40%	+35.9
Restaurant Opportunity Score	74.1	74	35%	+25.9
Market Momentum Score	70.0	70	25%	+17.5

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 90 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	33,544	91	40%	+36.4
Median household income (ACS)	113,412	88	40%	+35.2
Households (ACS)	13,070	91	20%	+18.2

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 74 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	8	52	35%	+18.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	8.1	80	25%	+20.0
Population (ACS)	33,544	91	20%	+18.2
Median household income (ACS)	113,412	88	20%	+17.6

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 70 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	12.5	71	50%	+35.3
10-year restaurant growth	8	52	30%	+15.7
20-year restaurant growth	237.5	95	20%	+19.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (59)

By cuisine

Coffee 9 · American 7 · Pizza 7 · Asian 5 · Bakery 5 · Burgers 5 · Dessert 4 · Japanese 4 · Breakfast 3 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 3 · Chinese 3 · Mexican 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 3 · Sushi 3 · BBQ 2 · Chicken / wings 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Seafood 2 · Steakhouse 2 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Italian 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1 · Thai 1 · Vietnamese 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 37 · Quick service 9 · Café 8 · Bakery 7 · Dessert 6 · Bar 5 · Coffee shop 4 · Casual dining 3 · Juice, smoothie, tea 3 · Winery / distillery / taproom 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Buffet 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Food truck 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
A Taste of Heaven BBQ & More Inc.	Food truck	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern	3646 Shamrock St W	open
AALIYAH CAKES	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Dessert	2427 Shalley Dr	open
AYCE Sushi Kai	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi	3425 Thomasville Rd Unit 21	open
Baskin Robbins Dunkin'	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Dessert · Coffee shop	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert · Coffee	3440 Thomasville Rd	open
Bear Star Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	9700 Moccasin Gap Rd	open
Beef O' Brady's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	2910 Kerry Forest Pkwy	open
Bella Luna Bella Luna	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	5293 Charles Samuel Dr	open
Bierbaum FDCH R02le0239	Bar		3233 Riddle Dr	open
Black Cats & Crumbs Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	Bradfordville rd and Widefield dr	open
Bonefish Grill Bonefish Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Steakhouse · Seafood	3491 Thomasville Rd	open
BossMan's Bistro & BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	3537 Thomasville Rd	open
Brickyard Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	4819 Kerry Forest Pkwy	open
Cabell's American Bar & Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	2915 Kerry Forest Pkwy	open
Chipotle Mexican Grill Chipotle Mexican Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	3425 Thomasville Rd Unit 1	open
Dejavu	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · Latin American (other)	3537 Thomasville Rd	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	2915 Kerry Forest Pkwy Ste 602	open
El Jalisco Kerry Forest Mexican Restaurant El Jalisco Destin Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	2915 Kerry Forest Pkwy Ste 301	open
El Viroleño	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other)	2910 Kerry Forest Pkwy # B1	open
Ellianos Coffee Ellianos Coffee	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee · Breakfast	2914 Kerry Forest Pkwy	open
Emerald Garden	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	2910 Kerry Forest Pkwy	open
Far East Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vietnamese	3425 Thomasville Rd	open
Firehouse Subs Firehouse Subs	Quick service	Sandwiches · American	3491 Thomasville Rd	open
Firehouse Subs	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3491-5 Thomasville Rd.	open
Five Guys Five Guys	Quick service	Burgers · American	3499 Thomasville Rd.	open
Hayashi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	4500 W Shannon Lakes Dr	open
Hopdoddy Burger Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	3425 Thomasville Rd	open
Hungry Howie's Hungry Howie's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	3491 Thomasville Road Unit #1	open
Jake's Touchdown Tavern	Bar · Casual dining		3032 Godfrey Pl	open
Kiku Japanese Fusion	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Asian	3491 Thomasville Rd #12	open
Kmg #76, Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3491 Thomasville Rd Ste 5	open
Kwench Juice Cafe	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls · Coffee	3491 Thomasville Rd	open
Lee-tel Services Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2910 Kerry Forest Pkwy Ste D4-161	open
Maple Street Biscuit Company	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast · Coffee · American	4500 W Shannon Lakes Dr	open
McAlister's Deli McAlister's Deli	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	3435-17 Thomasville Road	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	3438 Thomasville Rd	open
Ming Tree Cafe	Café	Chinese · Coffee · Asian	2711 Killarney Way	open
Moes Southwest Grill Moe's Southwest Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Mexican	3491 Thomasville Rd.	open
Mori Japanese Steakhouse & Pocket Pool	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Steakhouse	2910 Kerry Forest Pkwy	open
Nuberri	Other · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	2910 Kerry Forest Pkwy Ste D6	open
Ology Brewing Co Northside Ology Coffee Co.	Brewery / taproom · Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		2910 Kerry Forest Pkwy	open
Panda Buffet	Buffet		3507 Thomasville Rd	open
Panera Bread Panera Bread	Bakery · Café	Bakery · Sandwiches · Coffee	3523 Thomasville Rd	open
Papa John's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	4500 W Shannon Lakes Dr	open
Peter Brooke Chocolatier Peterbrooke Chocolatier Tuscaloosa	Dessert · Juice, smoothie, tea · Bakery	Juice / smoothies · Bakery	3491 Thomasville Rd	open
Pizza Hut Express	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	3751 Bradfordville Rd	open
Popeyes Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen	Quick service	Chicken / wings · Cajun, Creole, Southern	3511 Thomasville Rd	open
Red Elephant Pizza & Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Pizza	2910 Kerry Forest Pkwy	open
Red shed of Tallahassee	Bar		3031 Crump Rd	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	3425 Thomasville Rd	open
Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	3751 Bradfordville Rd	open
Thai Place	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	2915 Kerry Forest Pkwy	open
The English Rose	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Coffee · Tea / bubble tea	Tallahassee Farmers' Market, 2904 Kerry Forest Pkwy	open
The Wharf Original	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	3507 Thomasville Rd	open
Waffle House Waffle House	Casual dining	Breakfast · American	3470 Thomasville Rd	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	3439 Thomasville Rd	open
Wharf Express	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2910 Kerry Forest Pkwy	open
Windy Hill Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom		14663 Mahan Dr	open
ZENSHI Handcrafted Sushi Zenshi Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	3521 Thomasville Rd	open
Halligan's Pub-n-pool	Bar		1698 Village Square Blvd	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
2000	8	5	3	1	1	1	NAICS1997
2001	9	6	3	3	—	1	NAICS1997
2002	9	7	1	5	—	1	NAICS1997
2003	9	8	2	5	—	1	NAICS2002
2004	15	14	4	8	1	1	NAICS2002
2005	17	16	5	8	2	1	NAICS2002
2006	13	12	3	6	2	1	NAICS2002
2007	21	20	10	7	2	1	NAICS2002
2008	22	19	12	5	1	1	NAICS2007
2009	24	20	13	5	1	2	NAICS2007
2010	24	20	13	5	2	2	NAICS2007
2011	24	22	11	7	4	1	NAICS2007
2012	29	29	14	12	3	—	NAICS2012
2013	26	25	12	11	2	—	NAICS2012
2014	23	23	11	8	4	—	NAICS2012
2015	24	24	11	9	4	—	NAICS2012
2016	25	23	11	8	4	—	NAICS2012
2017	26	25	12	11	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	28	24	10	11	3	—	NAICS2017
2019	28	23	8	13	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	28	26	10	14	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	26	22	8	12	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	28	24	10	12	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	31	27	10	15	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 32309. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.