BMIE Market 32311

Leon County, Florida · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	21,905 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,201 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	9,970 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±500 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	17,493 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	8,311 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$81,243 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4,562 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	38.0 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,632 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±60 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$321,600 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±16,989 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	56.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	26 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 32311
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	11.4 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+13.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+13.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+160.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+766.7% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	25 (range 21–28) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.2 per year, r² 0.15) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	71 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	76 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	65 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	71 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 32311. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.15, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Florida and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 918, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 71 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	75.8	76	40%	+30.3
Restaurant Opportunity Score	65.5	65	35%	+22.9
Market Momentum Score	70.5	71	25%	+17.6

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 76 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	21,905	83	40%	+33.2
Median household income (ACS)	81,243	64	40%	+25.5
Households (ACS)	9,970	86	20%	+17.1

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 65 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	13.0	57	35%	+19.9
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	11.9	65	25%	+16.3
Population (ACS)	21,905	83	20%	+16.6
Median household income (ACS)	81,243	64	20%	+12.7

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 71 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	13.0	71	50%	+35.6
10-year restaurant growth	13.0	57	30%	+17.1
20-year restaurant growth	160	90	20%	+17.9

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (30)

By cuisine

Mexican 6 · Sandwiches 5 · American 3 · Coffee 3 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 3 · Asian 2 · Breakfast 2 · Bakery 1 · Burgers 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Chinese 1 · Dessert 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Pizza 1 · Steakhouse 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 16 · Quick service 7 · Casual dining 4 · Bar 3 · Café 3 · Coffee shop 2 · Specialty food shop 2 · Other 2 · Bakery 1 · Dessert 1 · Food truck 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
AZU Lucy Ho's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	3220 Apalachee Pkwy #13	open
Burger King	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3570 Apalachee Pkwy	open
Canopy Road Café Canopy Road Cafe	Casual dining · Café	American · Coffee · Breakfast	3196 Merchants Row Blvd	open
Carl's on the Parkway	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse	6497 Apalachee Pkwy	open
Casa Grande Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Mexican	3212 Apalachee Pkwy	open
Chopstix Chinese Restaurant Chopstix Noodle Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	3539 Apalachee Pkwy	open
College Playmates	Bar		3375 Pickett Court	open
Earley's Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Cajun, Creole, Southern	3196 Merchants Row Blvd	open
El Jalisco El Jalisco Destin Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Mexican	6497 Apalachee Pkwy	open
El Jalisco Southwood Mexican Restaurant El Jalisco Destin Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	3197 Merchants Row Blvd	open
Firehouse Subs Firehouse Subs	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	3220 Apalachee Pkwy.	open
Flavor of Haiti1804	Food truck		Tallahassee	open
Jersey Mike's Jersey Mike's Subs	Quick service · Specialty food shop	Sandwiches	1970 Gainesborough Drive #1	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	7981 Apalachee Parkway	open
Los Compadres Express	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	2431 Barcelona Ln	open
McDonald's	Quick service		3535 Apalachee Pkwy	open
Mom & Dad's Italian Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4175 Apalachee Pkwy	open
Pizza Hut Pizza Hut	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	3220 Apalachee Pkwy Ste 1 Unit 1	open
SouthWood Sweets	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	3197 Merchants Row Blvd Ste. 130	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	1960 Gainsborough Ln	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	3196 Merchants Row Blvd Ste 160	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	3535 Apalachee Pkwy	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	3529 Apalachee Pkwy	open
Taqueria Los Reyes	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	3404 Apalachee Pkwy	open
The Press Cafe	Café · Coffee shop	Coffee	3025 School House Rd	open
Waffle House Waffle House	Casual dining	Breakfast · American	3500 Apalachee Pkwy	open
Walmart Bakery	Specialty food shop · Bakery · Quick service	Sandwiches · Bakery	3535 Apalachee Pkwy	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	3561 S Blair Stone Rd	open
Zydeco Airport Lounge	Bar · Casual dining			open
Somethin Fishy Of Tallahassee	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4176 Apalachee Pkwy	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	3	3	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	9	9	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	7	7	3	2	2	—	NAICS1997
1999	10	10	4	4	2	—	NAICS1997
2000	11	11	5	4	2	—	NAICS1997
2001	13	11	6	4	1	1	NAICS1997
2002	13	12	6	5	1	—	NAICS1997
2003	11	10	3	6	1	—	NAICS2002
2004	11	10	3	5	2	—	NAICS2002
2005	11	11	3	6	2	—	NAICS2002
2006	16	14	5	6	3	—	NAICS2002
2007	17	17	7	8	2	—	NAICS2002
2008	17	16	7	6	3	—	NAICS2007
2009	20	20	10	7	3	—	NAICS2007
2010	21	20	9	8	3	—	NAICS2007
2011	24	24	10	11	3	—	NAICS2007
2012	22	22	9	11	2	—	NAICS2012
2013	24	23	10	11	2	—	NAICS2012
2014	24	24	10	10	2	—	NAICS2012
2015	22	22	11	8	2	—	NAICS2012
2016	22	21	9	9	2	—	NAICS2012
2017	22	21	10	8	3	—	NAICS2017
2018	25	23	12	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	27	25	11	11	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	25	21	10	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	26	22	10	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	29	25	10	12	3	—	NAICS2022
2023	30	26	10	13	3	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 32311. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
32399	3.0 mi	3	2022

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.