BMIE Market 32409

Bay County, Florida · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	11,113 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,196 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,117 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±448 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	8,691 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,820 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$64,516 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±12,034 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	43.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,409 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,020 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$275,700 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±41,385 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	126.6 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	3 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 32409
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	3.5 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2017 → 2022, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+200.0% DERIVED: 2012 → 2022, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+0.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	3 (range 0–5) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2009–2023 (11 points, +0.1 per year, r² 0.27) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	66 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	58 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	81 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	56 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 32409. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2009–2023, +0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.27, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Florida and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 918, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 66 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	58.4	58	40%	+23.4
Restaurant Opportunity Score	80.7	81	35%	+28.2
Market Momentum Score	55.6	56	25%	+13.9

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 58 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	11,113	72	40%	+28.9
Median household income (ACS)	64,516	38	40%	+15.2
Households (ACS)	4,117	71	20%	+14.3

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 81 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	200	97	35%	+34.1
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	2.7	98	25%	+24.5
Population (ACS)	11,113	72	20%	+14.5
Median household income (ACS)	64,516	38	20%	+7.6

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 56 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	200	97	30%	+29.2
20-year restaurant growth	0	28	20%	+5.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (22)

By cuisine

Bakery 5 · American 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Chicken / wings 2 · Dessert 2 · Pizza 2 · BBQ 1 · Seafood 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 12 · Bakery 5 · Quick service 5 · Bar 4 · Dessert 2 · Specialty food shop 2 · Casual dining 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
77 Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	13919 Highway 77	open
Beach Time Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		6300 W Bay Pkwy	open
CLAUS'S CONFECTIONERY	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	1234 2nd St	open
Dive Inn Bar & Grill	Bakery	American · Bakery	6300 West Bay Pkwy	open
El Chino Cizo	Quick service · Delivery-focused		Via Brazil al frente de price smart	open
Frankie D's Southport	Bar		13919 Highway 77	open
Grayton Beer Landing Strip	Other · Bar		6300 W Bay Pkwy	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	7506 Florida 77	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	15500 Hwy 77	open
Larry's Giant Subs	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	1513 Mylisa Rd	open
Nannies Kitchen, Southport Fl	Bakery	Bakery · American	8011 Highway 2302	open
Pizza Hut Express	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	13435 Highway 77	open
Reynolds Smith & Hill	Restaurant (service type not stated)		426 Coker Rd	open
Sandhills Seafood	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	13712 Highway 77	open
Southeastern Restaurant Consulting Corp	Restaurant (service type not stated)		13919 Highway 77	open
Southport Youth Sports A	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)		2120 Ball Park Rd	open
Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	7438 Hwy 77	open
Subway	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	13435 Hwy 77	open
Sugar Art By Angela	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	7426 Joanna Ln	open
Sweetheart Sourdough Co.	Bakery	Bakery	3191 Rachel Pl	open
The NUT HUT	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		100 SR-20	open
Wild Gamers Smokehouse	Specialty food shop	BBQ · American	2126 Highway 2321	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	4	3	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	2	1	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	3	1	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	5	5	4	—	1	—	NAICS1997
1999	6	5	4	—	1	1	NAICS1997
2000	7	6	4	1	1	1	NAICS1997
2001	3	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	4	4	2	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	3	3	1	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	4	3	1	2	—	1	NAICS2002
2005	2	1	—	1	—	1	NAICS2002
2006	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	4	4	1	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	2	2	—	2	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	3	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	3	3	3	—	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	3	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	3	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	3	3	—	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	3	3	—	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	3	3	—	3	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	4	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 32409. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.