BMIE Market 32640

Alachua County, Florida · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	10,623 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,197 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,375 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±408 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	10,510 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	5,689 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$60,208 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6,370 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	48.6 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$978 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±90 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$169,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±15,688 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	187.7 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	6 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 32640
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	4.8 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-25.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+50.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+50.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	7 (range 4–9) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.0 per year, r² 0.00) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	48 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	55 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	55 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	29 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 32640. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.00, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Florida and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 918, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 48 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	55.1	55	40%	+22.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	54.9	55	35%	+19.2
Market Momentum Score	28.9	29	25%	+7.2

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 55 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	10,623	72	40%	+28.7
Median household income (ACS)	60,208	30	40%	+12.0
Households (ACS)	4,375	72	20%	+14.5

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 55 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	35%	+12.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	5.7	89	25%	+22.4
Population (ACS)	10,623	72	20%	+14.3
Median household income (ACS)	60,208	30	20%	+6.0

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 29 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-25	11	50%	+5.4
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	30%	+10.5
20-year restaurant growth	50	65	20%	+13.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (25)

By cuisine

American 8 · BBQ 3 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Pizza 3 · Burgers 2 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 2 · Coffee 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Breakfast 1 · Chinese 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Seafood 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 17 · Bar 3 · Dessert 3 · Food truck 3 · Café 2 · Casual dining 2 · Quick service 2 · Winery / distillery / taproom 2 · Catering 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Browne's Serenity Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		6005 Se Us Highway 301 Ste 404	open
Burger Barn	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · American	6505 US-301	open
China House	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Chinese · American	6005 SE US Hwy 301	open
Cypress Point Creamery	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	18825 SE 24th Ave	open
D's Comfort Food	Food truck · Catering			open
Da Spot Inc	Bar		6005 SE US-301	open
Dianne's Old Time Barbeque	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	6707 US-301	open
Hawthorne Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café · Juice, smoothie, tea	Coffee · Breakfast · Juice / smoothies · American	6005 US-301 #404	open
Hawthorne Florida Dominos Pizza Domino's Pizza	Delivery-focused · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	6005 SE US-301	open
Island Grove Wine Company	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		24703 SE 193rd Ave	open
Island Grove Wine Company Tasting House	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		21848 S County Road 325	open
Judy's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	6005 SE US Highway 301 Ste 202	open
Kona Ice of Hawthorne Kona Ice	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	HNP Services, 15522 SE County Road 2082	open
Lochloosa Diner	Casual dining	American	15008 SE US HWY	open
Love’s Travel Center	Food truck		5615 SE US Highway 301	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	5605 US-301	open
Off the Rails Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	6720 SE 221st St	open
Paulson's Southern BBQ, LLC	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	16103 SE 207th St	open
Southern Butts BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	6005 SE US Highway 301	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	6005 SE US Highway 301 Suite 103	open
The Scoop	Dessert · Café	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Coffee	6940 SE 221st St	open
The Wrap Shack	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Sandwiches	6915 SE 221st St	open
The Yearling Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	14531 Co Rd 325	open
Tommy's Fresh Seafood	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	1827 FL-20	open
Yearling Restaurant The	Restaurant (service type not stated)		14531 E County Road 325	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	2	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	3	2	2	—	—	1	NAICS1997
2000	3	1	1	—	—	2	NAICS1997
2001	2	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	3	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	4	4	2	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	5	5	4	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	5	5	4	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	6	6	5	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	6	5	4	1	—	1	NAICS2002
2008	5	5	4	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	4	4	3	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	5	5	3	2	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	6	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	6	6	4	2	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	6	6	4	2	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	8	7	4	2	—	1	NAICS2012
2015	7	6	3	2	—	1	NAICS2012
2016	7	6	3	2	—	1	NAICS2012
2017	9	8	4	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	8	8	4	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	9	9	4	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	7	7	3	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	7	7	3	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	7	6	—	4	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	7	6	—	4	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 32640. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.