BMIE Market 33621

Hillsborough County, Florida · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	2,393 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±403 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	497 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±97 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	1,643 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	438 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$107,188 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±28,869 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	21.5 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,703 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±64 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	Data source not yet connected
Land area	8.3 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	3 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 33621
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	6.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2017 → 2022, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+200.0% DERIVED: 1996 → 2016, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+200.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	5 (range 2–7) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2010–2023 (11 points, +0.1 per year, r² 0.34) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	56 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	61 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	54 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	50 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 33621. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2010–2023, +0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.34, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Florida and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 918, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 56 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	60.6	61	40%	+24.3
Restaurant Opportunity Score	54.5	54	35%	+19.1
Market Momentum Score	49.9	50	25%	+12.5

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 61 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	2,393	48	40%	+19.3
Median household income (ACS)	107,188	85	40%	+34.1
Households (ACS)	497	36	20%	+7.3

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 54 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	35%	+12.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	12.5	62	25%	+15.6
Population (ACS)	2,393	48	20%	+9.6
Median household income (ACS)	107,188	85	20%	+17.0

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 50 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	30%	+10.5
20-year restaurant growth	200	93	20%	+18.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (15)

By cuisine

American 4 · Sandwiches 3 · Burgers 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Coffee 1 · Dessert 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Pizza 1 · Seafood 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 9 · Quick service 7 · Casual dining 2 · Dessert 2 · Bakery 1 · Bar 1 · Café 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
AAFES Food Court	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service		Blackbird St	open
Baskin-Robbins	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Ice cream / frozen desserts	3108 N Boundary Blvd	open
Bay Palms Snack Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Cajun, Creole, Southern	1803 Golf Course Ave	open
Blimpie	Other	Sandwiches	7115 S Boundary Blvd	open
Boomers Bar And Grill	Casual dining · Bar		7315 Bayshore Blvd # 499	open
Burger King Burger King	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Burgers · American	6801 S Dale Mabry Hwy	open
Diner's Reef Dining Facility	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	8118 Hillsborough Loop Dr	open
Dunkin'	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert	MacDill Air Force Base	open
Marco's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	8106 Condor St	open
Planet Smoothie Planet Smoothie	Quick service		3108 N Boundary Blvd, Ste FA001	open
Qdoba Qdoba	Quick service		3108 N Boundary Blvd	open
Sbarro Sbarro	Quick service		3108 N Boundary Blvd Space A0037	open
SeaScapes Beach House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	9951 Marina Bay Dr	open
Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop · Café	Sandwiches · Coffee · American	3108 N Boundary Blvd	open
Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Specialty food shop	Sandwiches	8105 Condor St, Bldg 18	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2007	2	2	—	1	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	2	2	—	1	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	2	2	—	1	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	9	1	—	—	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	9	1	—	—	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	9	3	—	—	3	—	NAICS2012
2013	9	3	—	—	3	—	NAICS2012
2014	9	3	—	1	2	—	NAICS2012
2015	4	3	—	1	2	—	NAICS2012
2016	7	3	1	1	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	4	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	3	—	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	3	—	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	3	—	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	4	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	4	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	4	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 33621. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
33616	1.9 mi	4	2023
33611	2.9 mi	74	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.