BMIE Market 33810

Polk County, Florida · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	55,137 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2,571 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	20,330 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±729 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	44,254 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	18,967 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$69,986 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5,093 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	40.9 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,539 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±104 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$281,700 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±9,838 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	64.6 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	27 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 33810
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	0.7 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+58.8% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+107.7% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+440.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+800.0% DERIVED: 1996 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	30 (range 24–36) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +1.4 per year, r² 0.69) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	84 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	77 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	85 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	94 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 33810. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +1.4 restaurants per year, r² 0.69, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Florida and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 918, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 84 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	77.4	77	40%	+31.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	85.0	85	35%	+29.7
Market Momentum Score	94.1	94	25%	+23.5

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 77 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	55,137	98	40%	+39.2
Median household income (ACS)	69,986	47	40%	+18.8
Households (ACS)	20,330	98	20%	+19.5

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 85 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	107.7	94	35%	+33.0
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	4.9	92	25%	+23.0
Population (ACS)	55,137	98	20%	+19.6
Median household income (ACS)	69,986	47	20%	+9.4

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 94 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	58.8	92	50%	+46.1
10-year restaurant growth	107.7	94	30%	+28.3
20-year restaurant growth	440	98	20%	+19.7

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (54)

By cuisine

American 6 · Bakery 6 · Burgers 5 · Coffee 5 · Dessert 5 · Pizza 5 · Italian 4 · Sandwiches 4 · Asian 3 · Caribbean 3 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Latin American (other) 3 · Mexican 3 · Chinese 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · BBQ 1 · Breakfast 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Japanese 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Sushi 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 31 · Quick service 10 · Bar 8 · Food truck 8 · Dessert 7 · Bakery 6 · Casual dining 6 · Café 5 · Specialty food shop 3 · Coffee shop 2 · Delivery-focused 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
2nd Hand Smoke bbq	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck	BBQ	6320 Pine Ave NW	open
716 Burgers & Brew	Casual dining · Bar	Burgers	2905 Duff Rd	open
Arepazo Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Bar		3284 Berwick Ln	open
BakingFlavour	Dessert · Bakery	Dessert · Bakery	3109 Beckett Way	open
Bfdwc Pizza Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3005 Duff Rd	open
Biancas Bakery And Cafe	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Bakery · Coffee	2973 Duff Rd	open
Boriken Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Caribbean · Sandwiches · Latin American (other)	3800 US Hwy 98 N	open
Bottlecaps Bar and Grill	Casual dining · Bar		2339 Ridgeview Dr	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	7396 Kathleen Rd	open
ChysCityBites	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck		1379 Marcum Rd	open
Cicala's Pizzeria and Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	2977 Duff Rd	open
Craving Comida	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)		3428 Swindell Rd	open
Cypress Grille	Casual dining · Café · Bar	American · Coffee		open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	7372 Kathleen Road	open
Family Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other)	6411 Kathleen Rd	open
First Watch First Watch	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast · American	4316 US Hwy 98	open
Greca	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	1379 Marcum Rd	open
Huntington Hills Golf & Country Club	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	2626 Duff Rd	open
Iron & Fire Food Truck	Food truck	American	1423 Marcum Rd	open
Jona Bells Cafe	Café	Coffee	3135 Knights Station Rd	open
Joyful Asian Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	7360 Kathleen Rd	open
Lakeland Ice Cream Company	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	2973 Duff Rd	open
Lance Ranch Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	4110 Caudill Dr	open
M & N Petroleum. Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4410 Kathleen Rd	open
Marco's Pizza Marco's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	3005 Duff Road	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	3150 Kathleen Rd	open
Mikey's Poolside Bar & Grille	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar			open
Millies Diner & Eatery L.L.C	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bakery	Bakery	7524 Jessamine Dr	open
Mj's Stadium Pizza and Italian Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	1035 Country Lane Ct	open
Pizza Hut Express	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	4410 Kathleen Rd, Nick & Moe's-lakeland	open
Queen Rodriguez	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	1154 N Galloway Rd	open
Quiznos Quiznos	Quick service · Specialty food shop	Sandwiches	4410 Kathleen Rd	open
Romeo's Pizza & Pasta Romeo's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	2346 Griffin Rd	open
S Bar S Ranch	Bar		4098 J A Fenton Rd	open
San Juan Mi Casita Boricua	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Caribbean	6914 US Hwy 98 N	open
Shang Hai Chinese Restaurants	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	2344 Griffin Rd	open
SpudSmash Food Trailer	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	1379 Marcum Rd	open
Subhub	Dessert · Quick service · Specialty food shop	Sandwiches · Ice cream / frozen desserts	6411 Kathleen Rd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	2276 Griffin Rd	open
Sugar Snail Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	US Hwy 98 N	open
SW Caribbean Delights	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Caribbean	1310 W Daughtery Rd	open
Taqueria la Carreta	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck	Mexican	1425 Marcum Rd	open
Tastee Central	Dessert · Juice, smoothie, tea	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Juice / smoothies · Hot dogs	1334 W Daughtery Rd	open
Taylormade Foods	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Dessert	727 taylormade food drive	open
The Arepazo Grill	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other)	1112 Mayflower Dr	open
The Banana Pudding Lady	Dessert · Delivery-focused	Dessert		open
The Gaffords bar	Bar · Casual dining		3607 Deborah Dr	open
The Velvet Crumb	Bakery	Bakery	6207 Green Rd	open
Up In Smoke's Grab N Go	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3010 Knights Station Rd	open
Wen-lake Corporation, A Florida Corporation	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2240 Griffin Rd	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	2240 Griffin Rd.	open
Wild Greg's Saloon Wild Greg's Saloon Pensacola	Bar		4951 US-98	open
Wildflower Nutrition	Juice, smoothie, tea · Coffee shop · Café	Juice / smoothies · Coffee	2957 Duff Rd	open
ZENSHI Handcrafted Sushi Zenshi Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	2300 Griffin Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1996	3	3	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	3	2	—	2	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	3	3	1	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	4	4	2	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	5	5	2	2	1	—	NAICS1997
2002	7	7	6	—	1	—	NAICS1997
2003	6	5	3	1	1	1	NAICS2002
2004	7	6	4	1	1	1	NAICS2002
2005	9	8	5	3	—	1	NAICS2002
2006	9	7	5	2	—	1	NAICS2002
2007	9	7	5	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	8	6	4	2	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	7	5	4	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	5	3	3	—	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	5	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	10	8	6	2	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	14	13	7	5	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	14	12	7	5	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	13	10	4	6	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	13	10	4	6	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	15	13	6	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	20	17	8	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	16	14	5	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	16	15	5	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	18	17	6	11	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	26	24	9	15	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	30	27	11	16	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 33810. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.