BMIE Market 33812

Polk County, Florida · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	16,169 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,725 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	5,327 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±408 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	13,166 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	5,032 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$103,052 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5,707 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	40.2 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,834 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±452 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$373,700 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±16,318 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	9.7 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	13 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 33812
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	1.5 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+30.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+160.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+550.0% DERIVED: 2006 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	18 (range 15–22) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.9 per year, r² 0.84) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	84 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	79 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	86 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	88 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence Medium · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 33812. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.9 restaurants per year, r² 0.84, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Florida and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 918, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 84 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	79.3	79	40%	+31.7
Restaurant Opportunity Score	85.7	86	35%	+30.0
Market Momentum Score	87.9	88	25%	+22.0

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 79 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	16,169	78	40%	+31.1
Median household income (ACS)	103,052	83	40%	+33.1
Households (ACS)	5,327	75	20%	+15.0

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 86 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	160	96	35%	+33.5
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	8.0	80	25%	+20.0
Population (ACS)	16,169	78	20%	+15.6
Median household income (ACS)	103,052	83	20%	+16.6

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 88 (Medium confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	30	83	50%	+52.0
10-year restaurant growth	160	96	30%	+35.9

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (21)

By cuisine

American 5 · Asian 3 · Burgers 3 · Dessert 2 · Pizza 2 · Bakery 1 · Breakfast 1 · British / Irish pub food 1 · Chinese 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Italian 1 · Japanese 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Mexican 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1 · Thai 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 11 · Quick service 9 · Bar 3 · Casual dining 2 · Dessert 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Bakery 1 · Delivery-focused 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Bamboo Wok	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian · Chinese	5151 US-98	open
Culver's Culver's	Quick service	Burgers · American	4255 Clubhouse Rd	open
Dairy Queen (Treat) Dairy Queen	Dessert · Quick service	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	5239 US Hwy 98 S	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	4660 Cr 540 A	open
Fresh Monkee Lakeland Fresh Monkee Erie	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	5257 Bartow Rd	open
Gator's Dockside Highland City Gator's Dockside Jonesville	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	5147 US Hwy 98 S	open
Hibachi Express Hibachi Express New Port Richey	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Asian	5209 US Highway 98 S	open
Highland City Diner	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	5221 US 98	open
IHOP IHOP	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5280 US Highway 98 South	open
Linksters Tap Room	Bar	British / Irish pub food	5125 US-98	open
Margatini's Hideaway	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Juice, smoothie, tea	Tea / bubble tea	3385 Summerland Hills Loop	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · Breakfast	4220 Clubhouse Rd	open
Palace Pizza Highland City	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	5235 US Highway 98 S	open
Panda Express	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)		5270 US Highway 98 S	open
Peach Cobbler Factory Lakeland Peach Cobbler Factory Detroit	Dessert · Bakery	Dessert · Bakery	5261 US Hwy 98 S #8C	open
Savory Thai	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	5109 US Hwy 98 S	open
Sonic Drive In Sonic Drive-In	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	5030 Dave Robbins Way	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	5253 US Hwy 98 S Ste #8E	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	5090 Dave Robbins Way	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	3695 Innovation Drive	open
Burger King	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5275 US Highway 98 S	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
2005	1	—	—	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	4	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	2	—	—	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	3	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	4	3	1	2	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	2	2	—	2	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	4	4	1	3	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	5	5	1	4	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	5	5	1	4	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	6	6	1	5	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	5	5	1	4	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	5	5	1	4	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	8	8	—	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	10	10	—	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	12	12	—	12	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	11	11	—	11	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	11	11	—	11	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	11	11	—	10	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	13	13	—	11	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 33812. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
33813	2.6 mi	79	2023
33840	2.7 mi	1	2010
33803	3.7 mi	87	2023
33801	4.5 mi	73	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.