BMIE Market 33838

Polk County, Florida · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	5,688 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±201 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,889 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±216 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	3,515 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	1,619 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$50,766 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±11,857 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	32.9 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,628 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±306 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$255,700 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±37,350 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	7.3 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	9 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 33838
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	17.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+80.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+50.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+50.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+200.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	12 (range 9–15) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.5 per year, r² 0.58) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	58 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	43 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	57 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	85 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 33838. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.5 restaurants per year, r² 0.58, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Florida and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 918, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 58 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	43.3	43	40%	+17.3
Restaurant Opportunity Score	56.9	57	35%	+19.9
Market Momentum Score	84.7	85	25%	+21.2

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 43 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	5,688	62	40%	+25.0
Median household income (ACS)	50,766	16	40%	+6.3
Households (ACS)	1,889	60	20%	+12.0

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 57 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	50	82	35%	+28.8
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	15.8	50	25%	+12.5
Population (ACS)	5,688	62	20%	+12.5
Median household income (ACS)	50,766	16	20%	+3.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 85 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	80	94	50%	+47.0
10-year restaurant growth	50	82	30%	+24.7
20-year restaurant growth	50	65	20%	+13.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (24)

By cuisine

American 4 · Caribbean 4 · Latin American (other) 4 · Mexican 3 · Bakery 2 · Burgers 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Asian 1 · BBQ 1 · Chinese 1 · Coffee 1 · Dessert 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Italian 1 · Pizza 1 · Sandwiches 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 10 · Food truck 6 · Quick service 4 · Dessert 3 · Bakery 2 · Bar 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Casual dining 1 · Coffee shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
5 Hermanos Baked Potatoes	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck		620 Dundee Rd	open
Dairy Queen	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	28067 Hwy 27	open
Davidson of Dundee	Dessert		28421 US-27	open
Diego’s Taqueria #2	Food truck	Mexican	302 E Main St	open
Donde Wilking Latin Food Truck	Food truck	Latin American (other) · Caribbean	915 Dundee Rd	open
Dundee Bakery	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Bakery	214 E Main St	open
Dundee Diner	Casual dining	American	28087 US-27	open
El Valenciano Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other)	208 E Main St	open
Hardee's Hardee's	Quick service	Burgers · American	28199 Hwy 27	open
La Garita	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Caribbean · Latin American (other)	28067 Hwy 27	open
Main Street Diner Of Dundee Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		219 E Main St Ste B	open
Manny’s Bar	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		101 E Main St	open
Marco's Pizza Marco's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	28065 Hwy 27	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	28064 Us Hwy 27 S	open
Mirtha's Latin Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Caribbean	28067 Hwy 27	open
Out-n-About Bar and Music Lounge	Bar		28390 US-27	open
Parada Tropical	Food truck	Latin American (other) · Caribbean	207 FL-17	open
Sokai Donuts	Bakery · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee · Bakery	28019 US-27	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	28063 Hwy 27	open
Taco Amigos Tacos Guerrerenses	Food truck	Mexican	95 Dundee Rd	open
Taco Dawgs featuring Butt Loving BBQ	Juice, smoothie, tea	BBQ · Mexican · Juice / smoothies	27999 Hwy 27	open
Top China	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	28075 Hwy 27	open
Touchofphillyllc	Food truck · Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies · American	29696 Hwy 27	open
Who Not On That Eats	Restaurant (service type not stated)		28597 Hwy 27	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	5	3	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1995	4	2	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	4	3	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	8	7	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	9	8	3	4	1	1	NAICS1997
1999	8	6	1	4	1	1	NAICS1997
2000	7	5	1	3	1	1	NAICS1997
2001	8	7	2	4	1	1	NAICS1997
2002	5	5	1	3	1	—	NAICS1997
2003	6	6	2	3	1	—	NAICS2002
2004	6	6	2	3	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	6	6	2	3	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	6	6	2	3	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	6	5	1	3	1	1	NAICS2002
2008	6	5	1	3	1	1	NAICS2007
2009	6	5	1	3	1	1	NAICS2007
2010	7	6	1	4	1	1	NAICS2007
2011	8	7	3	3	1	1	NAICS2007
2012	7	6	3	3	—	1	NAICS2012
2013	7	6	3	3	—	1	NAICS2012
2014	7	6	2	4	—	1	NAICS2012
2015	4	4	—	4	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	4	4	—	4	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	5	4	—	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	6	5	—	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	8	7	—	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	8	7	—	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	11	9	—	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	11	9	—	8	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	10	9	—	8	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 33838. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
33851	2.2 mi	1	2010
33877	2.3 mi	1	2012
33884	5.0 mi	28	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.