BMIE Market 33839

Polk County, Florida · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	4,561 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±653 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,394 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±225 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	2,756 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	1,126 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$70,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±18,705 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	31.9 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,740 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±331 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$240,400 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±30,141 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	3.1 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	Not published for this ZIP 2016 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2016 detail (NAICS2012) · by USPS ZIP 33839
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	3.6 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+100.0% DERIVED: 2007 → 2012, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+100.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2013, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2018	3 (range 1–4) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 1998–2013 (11 points, +0.1 per year, r² 0.57) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	72 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	53 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	77 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	95 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence Medium · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 33839. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 1998–2013, +0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.57, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Florida and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 918, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 72 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	53.3	53	40%	+21.3
Restaurant Opportunity Score	76.8	77	35%	+26.9
Market Momentum Score	94.6	95	25%	+23.6

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 53 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	4,561	59	40%	+23.5
Median household income (ACS)	70,000	47	40%	+18.8
Households (ACS)	1,394	55	20%	+11.0

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 77 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	100	92	35%	+32.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	4.4	94	25%	+23.4
Population (ACS)	4,561	59	20%	+11.8
Median household income (ACS)	70,000	47	20%	+9.4

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 95 (Medium confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	100	96	50%	+60.0
10-year restaurant growth	100	92	30%	+34.5

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (8)

By cuisine

American 3 · BBQ 1 · Breakfast 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Coffee 1 · Mexican 1 · Noodles / ramen / pho 1 · Pizza 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1 · Vietnamese 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 4 · Casual dining 2 · Buffet 1 · Café 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Quick service 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Blackburn's BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	169 N 5th St	open
Containers Unlimited Inc.	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1141 2nd Dr	open
Eagle Lake Family Diner	Casual dining · Buffet	American · Breakfast	185 5th St	open
Hungry Howie's Hungry Howie's	Delivery-focused · Quick service	Pizza	3071 Rifle Range Rd S	open
Hyde's Eagle Lake Cafe	Café	Coffee	237 N 5th St	open
Love Pho and Boba	Juice, smoothie, tea	Vietnamese · Tea / bubble tea · Noodles / ramen / pho	223 N 5th St	open
Taco Stop	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Mexican · American	223 N 5th St	open
The Hidden Gem With Latin Flavors	Restaurant (service type not stated)		223 N 5th St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2010	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	1	—	—	—	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	3	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	3	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	1	—	—	—	—	—	NAICS2012

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 33839. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
33880	1.9 mi	71	2023
33884	4.5 mi	28	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.