BMIE Market 33860

Polk County, Florida · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	24,892 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,918 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	8,850 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±557 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	22,886 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	8,827 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$65,710 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6,644 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	35.9 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,200 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±127 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$250,400 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±21,227 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	98.4 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	13 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 33860
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	5.2 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-18.8% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-13.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+62.5% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+85.7% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	13 (range 11–16) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.1 per year, r² 0.08) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	52 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	67 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	54 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	26 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 33860. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.08, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Florida and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 918, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 52 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	66.7	67	40%	+26.7
Restaurant Opportunity Score	53.6	54	35%	+18.7
Market Momentum Score	26.2	26	25%	+6.6

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 67 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	24,892	85	40%	+34.1
Median household income (ACS)	65,710	40	40%	+16.0
Households (ACS)	8,850	83	20%	+16.6

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 54 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-13.3	17	35%	+5.8
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	5.2	91	25%	+22.7
Population (ACS)	24,892	85	20%	+17.0
Median household income (ACS)	65,710	40	20%	+8.0

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 26 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-18.8	14	50%	+6.9
10-year restaurant growth	-13.3	17	30%	+5.0
20-year restaurant growth	62.5	72	20%	+14.4

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (46)

By cuisine

Mexican 7 · American 4 · Bakery 4 · Burgers 4 · Dessert 4 · Asian 3 · Chicken / wings 3 · Italian 3 · Juice / smoothies 3 · Pizza 3 · BBQ 2 · Breakfast 2 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 2 · Coffee 2 · Japanese 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Seafood 2 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 2 · Caribbean 1 · Chinese 1 · Cuban 1 · Greek 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Indian 1 · Steakhouse 1 · Sushi 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 29 · Quick service 14 · Bakery 4 · Dessert 4 · Juice, smoothie, tea 3 · Café 2 · Bar 1 · Casual dining 1 · Catering 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Food truck 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Ballers Nutrition	Juice, smoothie, tea	Tea / bubble tea · Juice / smoothies	1280 N Church Ave	open
Better World Nutrition	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	7086 N Church Ave	open
Buffalo Wild Wings Buffalo Wild Wings	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	2058 Shepherd Road, Unit 9	open
Carter's Barbecue	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	709 E Canal St	open
Depot 303	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Asian · American	303 NW 1st Ave	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Quick service		5930 Imperial Pkwy	open
El Rancho Mexicano	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	4085 FL-60	open
Empanada Delicioso	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1790 Shepherd Rd	open
Golden Tide Seafood & Bar	Bar	Seafood	2020 Shepherd Rd	open
Hardee's Hardee's	Quick service	Burgers · American	515 E Canal St	open
Hibachi Express Mulberry	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Steakhouse	2106 Shepherd Rd	open
Jk's Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	211 NW 1st Ave	open
Joshua's Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	2020 Shepherd Rd	open
Kostas Drive-in Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Greek	1207 E Canal St	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	1285 N Church Ave	open
Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars	Quick service	Pizza · Italian	7072 N Church Ave	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	205 Canal St E	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	6900 N CHURCH AVE (Walmart #5035)	open
Mias Puertorican Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Caribbean	1207 E Canal St	open
Mulberry Cafe and Coffee House	Café · Coffee shop	Coffee · Cajun, Creole, Southern	113 W Badcock Blvd	open
Mulberry Ice Cream Company	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	112 NW 1st Ave	open
Mulberry Subway	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	214 E Canal St	open
Ole' Tampa Cubans	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cuban · Sandwiches · Latin American (other)	713 N Church Ave	open
Paco's Tacos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	4785 State Road 60 W	open
Pacos Tacos Florida	Quick service · Food truck	Mexican	3498 Shady Brooke Dr	open
Palace Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	2054 Shepherd Rd	open
Rae of Sunshine Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	3432 Heather Glynn Dr	open
Reasey donuts	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Breakfast · Bakery	202 E Canal St	open
Rocio's Sweet Art Gallery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	The Fenway	open
Shanghai Chinese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	2070 Shepherd Rd	open
Small Doggs bbq	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	506 Canal St W	open
Spice Of Life Swap Shop	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Indian	4512 Thompson Rd	open
Studio S Babe Bar	Café	Coffee	5925 Imperial Pkwy	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Seafood · Mexican	6753 North Church Ave	open
Taco Fiesta	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	5925 Imperial Pkwy #101	open
Taqueria ROSAS INC.	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	Bailey Rd	open
Taqueria El Buen Pastor	Quick service	Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Mexican	4285 State Road 60 W	open
The Pretzel Pantry	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Catering		5137 Black Birch Trl	open
Toppers	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	401 N Church Ave	open
Tropical Smoothie Cafe	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	2054 Shepherd Rd	open
Vacation Cleaners, Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		6615A N Church Ave	open
Walmart Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	6745 N Church Ave	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	7032 North Church Avenue	open
Zaxby's Zaxby's	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Chicken / wings	6747 N Church Ave	open
ZENSHI Handcrafted Sushi Zenshi Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	2040 Shepherd Rd	open
Carols Cafe	Casual dining	American	113 W Badcock Blvd	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	9	7	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1995	6	5	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	7	7	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	11	11	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	11	11	7	4	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	13	13	9	4	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	11	11	7	4	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	8	8	4	4	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	8	8	5	3	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	10	8	5	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	14	13	7	6	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	12	12	5	7	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	10	10	3	7	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	12	12	3	8	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	9	9	2	7	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	8	7	1	6	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	12	12	5	6	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	11	11	3	6	2	—	NAICS2007
2012	15	15	4	8	3	—	NAICS2012
2013	15	15	5	8	2	—	NAICS2012
2014	12	12	4	7	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	14	14	6	7	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	17	17	6	10	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	16	15	4	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	16	16	4	12	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	14	14	—	12	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	14	14	—	12	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	14	14	—	13	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	14	13	—	12	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	16	13	—	12	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 33860. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
33835	2.9 mi	—

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.