BMIE Market 33993

Lee County, Florida · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	35,580 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2,248 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	12,053 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±747 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	20,628 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	9,585 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$90,577 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6,371 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	42.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,180 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±197 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$364,800 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±12,692 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	43.7 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	7 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 33993
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	2.9 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-12.5% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-12.5% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-22.2% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+600.0% DERIVED: 1996 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	6 (range 3–9) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.1 per year, r² 0.05) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	60 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	84 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	64 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	16 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 33993. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.05, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Florida and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 918, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 60 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	84.1	84	40%	+33.6
Restaurant Opportunity Score	63.9	64	35%	+22.4
Market Momentum Score	16.1	16	25%	+4.0

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 84 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	35,580	92	40%	+36.8
Median household income (ACS)	90,577	74	40%	+29.5
Households (ACS)	12,053	89	20%	+17.9

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 64 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-12.5	17	35%	+5.9
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	2.0	99	25%	+24.8
Population (ACS)	35,580	92	20%	+18.4
Median household income (ACS)	90,577	74	20%	+14.7

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 16 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-12.5	17	50%	+8.5
10-year restaurant growth	-12.5	17	30%	+5.1
20-year restaurant growth	-22.2	13	20%	+2.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (28)

By cuisine

Seafood 7 · American 5 · BBQ 4 · Coffee 2 · Dessert 2 · Breakfast 1 · Burgers 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Pizza 1 · Vietnamese 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 18 · Bar 8 · Casual dining 5 · Dessert 3 · Food truck 3 · Café 2 · Bakery 1 · Catering 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Quick service 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Al Son Del Karbon	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	3401 Sand Rd	open
Barnhill Fisheries	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood		open
Bert's Bar & Grill	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Seafood	4271 Pine Island Rd NW	open
Bert's Bar & Grill	Bar · Casual dining	BBQ	4711 Pine Island Rd NW	open
BIG Herm's Chicago Style Food	Food truck	American · Hot dogs	3946 Pine Island Rd	open
Blue Dog Bar and Grill	Casual dining · Bar	Seafood · American	4597 Pine Island Rd NW	open
Captain Mike's	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4548 Pine Island Rd NW	open
CW Fudge Factory	Dessert	Dessert	4548 Pine Island Rd NW	open
Durden Tavern	Bar		Right off Durden Parkway	open
El nino Cuban sandwiches LLC	Food truck		926 NW 7th Ave	open
Great Licks Ice Cream Shop	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Burgers	4643 Pine Island Rd NW	open
Hooked Island Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	4200 Pine Island Rd NW	open
Island Pearl	Restaurant (service type not stated)		806 Burnt Store Rd	open
Island Pho & Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vietnamese	4205 Pine Island Rd NW	open
Knicker's Pub	Bar		1800 NW 28th Ave	open
Miceli's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	Seafood	3930 Pine Island Rd	open
Off The Hook Donuts	Bakery · Dessert · Café	Dessert · Coffee	4707 Pine Island Rd NW	open
Olde Fish House Marina	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Seafood	4530 Pine Island Rd NW	open
Pizza Bella	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	4590 Pine Island Rd NW	open
Rsw Hospitality	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4330 Pine Island Rd NW	open
Solomon’s Famous Bbq	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	4590 Pine Island Rd NW	open
Soul’d out Foods LLC	Food truck	Cajun, Creole, Southern	2414 NW 8th Pl	open
That BBQ Place	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	4689 Pine Island Rd	open
The Best Around Inc.	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	3305 Old Burnt Store Rd N	open
The Foxhole	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4618 Pine Island Rd NW	open
The Hummingbird Table LLC	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Catering		1107 NW 25th Ave	open
The Perfect Cup	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee · Breakfast	4548 Pine Island Rd	open
Yucatan Waterfront Tiki Bar and Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar · Casual dining	Seafood	4875 Pine Island Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1996	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	7	7	7	—	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	8	7	6	1	—	1	NAICS1997
2000	6	6	6	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	6	6	6	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	7	6	6	—	—	1	NAICS1997
2003	11	9	7	1	1	2	NAICS2002
2004	8	7	5	1	—	1	NAICS2002
2005	6	5	2	3	—	1	NAICS2002
2006	5	5	4	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	6	6	4	1	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	5	5	4	—	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	5	5	4	—	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	6	6	5	—	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	4	4	3	—	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	6	6	3	2	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	8	8	5	2	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	7	7	5	1	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	9	7	5	1	1	1	NAICS2012
2016	10	8	6	1	1	1	NAICS2012
2017	9	7	6	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	10	8	6	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	11	9	7	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	11	7	5	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	11	8	6	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	9	6	5	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	12	7	4	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 33993. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
33991	3.7 mi	59	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.