BMIE Market 34219

Manatee County, Florida · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	33,296 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,660 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	12,257 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±539 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	17,135 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	7,302 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$113,773 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5,929 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	45.7 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,863 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±130 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$454,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±12,197 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	210.6 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	20 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 34219
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	7.0 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+17.7% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+81.8% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+233.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+1,900.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	19 (range 14–24) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.4 per year, r² 0.29) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	88 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	89 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	89 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	83 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 34219. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.4 restaurants per year, r² 0.29, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Florida and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 918, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 88 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	89.5	89	40%	+35.8
Restaurant Opportunity Score	89.0	89	35%	+31.2
Market Momentum Score	83.5	83	25%	+20.9

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 89 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	33,296	91	40%	+36.3
Median household income (ACS)	113,773	88	40%	+35.3
Households (ACS)	12,257	90	20%	+17.9

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 89 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	81.8	89	35%	+31.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	6.0	88	25%	+22.0
Population (ACS)	33,296	91	20%	+18.2
Median household income (ACS)	113,773	88	20%	+17.6

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 83 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	17.7	75	50%	+37.7
10-year restaurant growth	81.8	89	30%	+26.8
20-year restaurant growth	233.3	95	20%	+19.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (66)

By cuisine

American 11 · Asian 7 · Bakery 6 · Coffee 6 · Pizza 6 · Italian 5 · Mexican 5 · Sandwiches 5 · Dessert 4 · Healthy / salads / bowls 4 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 4 · Japanese 4 · Juice / smoothies 4 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 4 · Sushi 4 · Burgers 3 · Chicken / wings 3 · Breakfast 2 · Vegetarian 2 · BBQ 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Chinese 1 · Hawaiian / Pacific 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Seafood 1 · Thai 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 34 · Quick service 15 · Bakery 7 · Dessert 7 · Bar 6 · Casual dining 5 · Coffee shop 5 · Juice, smoothie, tea 4 · Café 3 · Food truck 3 · Delivery-focused 2 · Winery / distillery / taproom 2 · Fast casual 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
3Natives 3Natives	Juice, smoothie, tea	Healthy / salads / bowls · Vegetarian · Juice / smoothies	8980 US-301 Unit 122	open
5 Boroughs Pizza	Delivery-focused	Pizza · Italian	8255 US-301	open
Aqua Tequila Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	8900 US Highway 301 N	open
Arby's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	11507 US-301 N	open
BabycakesCupcakesllc	Dessert · Bakery	Dessert · Bakery	—-	open
Beef O Bradys Beef 'O' Brady's Fern Creek	Bar · Casual dining	American	8913 US Highway 301 N	open
Bethi B’s Coffee Shop	Coffee shop	Coffee	Parrish	open
Bread Baby	Bakery	Bakery	9822 Daybreak Gln	open
Bunker Hill Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom			open
Bunker Hill Vineyard & Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		8905 Bunker Hill Rd	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	8907 US-301	open
Butterfields Family Restaurant	Casual dining	Breakfast · American	8205 US Highway 301 N	open
C & K Smokehouse BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	12119 US-301	open
Chicken Salad Chick Chicken Salad Chick	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Fast casual	Chicken / wings · Sandwiches · Healthy / salads / bowls	8730 US-301 Unit 113	open
Chung Shing	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	8951 US Highway 301 N	open
Culver's Culver's	Quick service			open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	8163 Us Hwy 301 N.	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Quick service · Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	11511 US 301N	open
Dunkin'	Bakery	Bakery	11511 US Highway 301 N	open
Ferraro's Italian Grille	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	8348 US-301	open
First Watch First Watch	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast · American	8990 US Highway 301 N	open
Five Guys Five Guys	Quick service	Burgers · American	8990 U.S. 301 Unit 115	open
Foxtail Coffee - North River Ranch Foxtail Coffee	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	11687 Moccasin Wallow Rd	open
Gambino's Pizza	Other	Sandwiches	12345 US Highway 301 N	open
Gulley's	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck	Seafood	12255 US-301	open
Horvat Bar and Grill RW	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		3301 Wilderness Blvd W	open
Jersey Mike's Subs	Quick service		8980 US 301 N Ste 130	open
KFC	Quick service · Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Chicken / wings · Burgers	8803 US Highway 301 N	open
Kingdom of Yahweh Heaven on Earth	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vegetarian	12159 Warwick Cir	open
Laredo Taco Company	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Southwestern / Tex-Mex	12060 US 301	open
Long Branch Stable	Bar		3303 N Rye Rd	open
Michelangelo 301 Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	11255 US Highway 301 N	open
Mosaic in Manatee	Café · Juice, smoothie, tea	Coffee · Juice / smoothies	1295 Duette Rd	open
Oh My Minis	Bakery	Bakery	11821 Little River Way	open
Ono Poke - Parrish, FL	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Hawaiian / Pacific · Sushi · Japanese · Healthy / salads / bowls · Asian	8980 US-301 Ste 110	open
Osaka Sushi and Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	8950 US-301 Ste 113	open
P J's Sandwich Shop	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · American	12342 US-301	open
Panera Bread	Coffee shop	Coffee	8980 US 301 N Unit 102	open
Papa Johns Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	8723 FORT HAMER Rd Bldg 5 Unit 102	open
Parrish Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	12345 US-301	open
Pizza Hut Pizza Hut	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	8963 US-301	open
Pomegranate Frozen Yogurt	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	9023 US Highway 301 N	open
Pomegranate Frozen Yogurt	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	9023 US Highway 301 N	open
Poppo's Taqueria Poppo's Taqueria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	8719 Fort Hamer Rd BLDG 5 UNIT 101	open
Restaurant iDalia	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	8743 Fort Hamer Rd	open
Rita's Italian Ice & Frozen Custard Rita's Italian Ice & Frozen Custard	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Ice cream / frozen desserts	Creekside Commons, 8980 US-301	open
Rita’s of Parrish FL Rita's Italian Ice	Dessert · Bar	Dessert		open
Ryan's Coffee House	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	8231 US-301	open
Silverleaf Bread Co	Bakery	Bakery	10534 Falling Leaf Ct	open
Símple Mexican Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	11235 Us Highway 301 N Unit 105	open
Símple Mexican Grill	Quick service	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	11235 US Hwy 301 N	open
Sonic Drive In Sonic Drive-In	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	8803 Us Highway 301	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	8919 US-301	open
T & T Hibachi Japanese Food	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	Marathon Gas Station, 8003 US Highway 301N	open
Taqueria Maty	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	12255 US-301	open
Tejanos' CAFE	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	12345 US-301	open
The Cake Zone	Bakery	Bakery	5015 Fort Hamer Rd	open
The Higgins (Mostly Bar) and Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar			open
The Sand Bar, Anna Maria Island,Fl	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American		open
Tropical Smoothie Cafe Tropical Smoothie Cafe	Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls	8730 US Highway 301 N	open
Tropical Smoothie Cafe Tropical Smoothie Cafe	Quick service		8730 US 301 N	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service		12067 Us-301 N	open
William G's Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck	Chicken / wings	12255 US Highway 301 N	open
ZENSHI Handcrafted Sushi Zenshi Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	9005 US Highway 301 N	open
ZENSHI Handcrafted Sushi Zenshi Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	11635 Moccasin Wallow Rd	open
Raven Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	8255 US Highway 301 N	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	6	6	3	2	1	—	NAICS1997
1999	5	4	2	1	1	1	NAICS1997
2000	4	3	2	1	—	1	NAICS1997
2001	3	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	7	7	4	3	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	7	6	1	4	1	1	NAICS2002
2004	11	9	4	4	1	1	NAICS2002
2005	10	7	2	4	1	1	NAICS2002
2006	10	6	3	2	1	1	NAICS2002
2007	10	7	4	3	—	1	NAICS2002
2008	13	10	3	6	1	1	NAICS2007
2009	15	13	4	8	1	1	NAICS2007
2010	15	12	5	7	—	1	NAICS2007
2011	17	14	7	7	—	1	NAICS2007
2012	16	13	8	5	—	1	NAICS2012
2013	13	11	5	6	—	1	NAICS2012
2014	13	11	4	7	—	1	NAICS2012
2015	19	16	5	10	1	1	NAICS2012
2016	19	17	5	10	2	1	NAICS2012
2017	20	17	5	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	20	17	5	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	17	14	4	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	18	15	4	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	16	13	4	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	21	16	4	11	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	30	20	7	11	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 34219. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.