BMIE Market 34222

Manatee County, Florida · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	14,819 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,475 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	6,427 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±616 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	11,952 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	6,855 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$64,355 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±8,534 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	55.0 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,624 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±245 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$202,400 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±39,756 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	5.3 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	25 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 34222
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	21.8 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-21.9% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-16.7% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+19.1% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+150.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	24 (range 20–27) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.5 per year, r² 0.49) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	43 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	61 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	40 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	20 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 34222. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.5 restaurants per year, r² 0.49, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Florida and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 918, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 43 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	61.3	61	40%	+24.5
Restaurant Opportunity Score	39.7	40	35%	+13.9
Market Momentum Score	19.7	20	25%	+4.9

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 61 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	14,819	76	40%	+30.6
Median household income (ACS)	64,355	38	40%	+15.1
Households (ACS)	6,427	78	20%	+15.6

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 40 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-16.7	15	35%	+5.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	16.9	46	25%	+11.6
Population (ACS)	14,819	76	20%	+15.3
Median household income (ACS)	64,355	38	20%	+7.5

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 20 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-21.9	12	50%	+6.1
10-year restaurant growth	-16.7	15	30%	+4.5
20-year restaurant growth	19.1	45	20%	+9.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (62)

By cuisine

American 17 · Dessert 7 · Asian 5 · Burgers 5 · Bakery 4 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 4 · Coffee 4 · Sandwiches 4 · BBQ 3 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Juice / smoothies 3 · Mexican 3 · Chicken / wings 2 · Chinese 2 · Japanese 2 · Pizza 2 · Seafood 2 · Breakfast 1 · Greek 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Italian 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Noodles / ramen / pho 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Sushi 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 33 · Quick service 13 · Casual dining 11 · Bar 9 · Dessert 8 · Bakery 6 · Juice, smoothie, tea 4 · Café 3 · Coffee shop 3 · Delivery-focused 2 · Food truck 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Always On Time - A.O.T	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3503 US-301 N	open
Anna Maria Oyster Bar Ellenton	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Seafood · American	1525 51st Ave E	open
Applebee's Applebee's Grill & Bar	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	5908 18th St E	open
Baskin-Robbins Baskin-Robbins	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	6420 US 301 N	open
Charms Of Leffingwell	Juice, smoothie, tea	Tea / bubble tea	905 Leffingwell Ave	open
Checkers	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	6020 US Highway 301 N	open
Chili's Grill & Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)		6010 US Highway 301 N	open
China Master	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	5461 Factory Shops Blvd	open
Chipotle Mexican Grill Chipotle Mexican Grill	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	6020 US Highway 301 N	open
Crawfish & Crab Bayou Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · Cajun, Creole, Southern	3412 US-301 #101	open
CrossBar	Bar			open
Dickey's Barbecue Pit The WingHouse Bar & Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	BBQ · American	2015 60th Ave E	open
Ellenton Cafe	Café	American · Coffee	7044 US-301	open
Evies Tavern Ellenton	Bar		5955 Factory Shops Blvd	open
Five-O Donut Co - Ellenton	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	2211 60th Ave E	open
Fresh Burger Fresh Burger	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches · Burgers · American	5483 Factory Shops Blvd	open
Hickory Hollow	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	4705 US-301	open
Hungry Howie's Hungry Howie's	Delivery-focused · Quick service	Pizza	5912 18th Street East	open
It's Just Wings	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	6010 US Highway 301 N	open
Jeffs Tiki Bar & Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		704 Camellia Ave	open
JJ's Backyard Bar & Grill, Ellenton, FL	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	3503 US-301	open
King's Wok	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	6210 US-301	open
Legacy BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	2443 US-301 N	open
Lexiconfl Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2219 60th Ave E	open
Lindt Chocolate Shop	Dessert	Dessert	5451 Factory Shops Blvd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	6103 US-301 N	open
Mitaka Ramen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Noodles / ramen / pho · Asian	5943 Factory Shops Blvd	open
Mr Mango	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	5461 Factory Shops Blvd	open
MrBeast Burger	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · Sandwiches	5802 20TH St E	open
Oh Greek	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Greek · Mediterranean	5475 Factory Shops Blvd	open
Papa Johns Pizza Papa John's Pizza	Delivery-focused · Quick service	Pizza	3428 US-301	open
Peach's Restaurant - Ellenton	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	2207 60th Ave E	open
Popeyes Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen	Quick service	Chicken / wings · Cajun, Creole, Southern	3707 US-301	open
Popi's Place IV Popi's Place	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	3911 US-301 N	open
Publix Super Markets	Quick service · Bakery	Bakery	6242 US Highway 301 N	open
Rippers Roadstand	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Hot dogs	5967 Factory Shops Blvd	open
Ruby Tuesday	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	5802 20th St E	open
Sea Hut	Quick service	American	4705 US-301 N	open
Shake Station	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · American	4219 US Highway 301 N	open
Sixty East Italian Cucina and Martini Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	Italian	2219 60th Ave E	open
Smallcakes Cupcakery and Creamery	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert	6202 US Highway 301 N	open
Sonic Drive-In	Quick service		6025 US Highway 301 N	open
South Philly Cheesesteaks South Philly Cheesesteaks	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches · American	5967 Factory Shops Blvd	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Quick service · Café	Coffee	5509 Factory Shops Blvd	open
Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	6285 US-301	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	2215 60th Ave E	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	6025 North US 301	open
Taco Shop	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	3602 US-301	open
Taqueria Emiliano Zapata- Tacos	Food truck		1127 36th Ave E	open
The Canopy	Casual dining		3503 US Highway 301 N	open
Three Oaks	Bar		3501 US Highway 301 N	open
Tokyo Thai	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	5959 Factory Shops Blvd	open
Tookies and Treats Bakery Shop	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	5355 Factory Shops Blvd	open
Tropical Ice Cream & Coffee	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	5461 Factory Shops Blvd	open
Tsukino Sushi Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	5959 Factory Shops Blvd	open
Vampire Penguin	Dessert · Juice, smoothie, tea · Bakery	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Bakery	6202 US Highway 301 N	open
Waffle House Waffle House	Casual dining	American · Breakfast	1515 51st Ave E	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	5904 20th St E	open
Whiskey Joe's \| Manatee River Whiskey Joe's Bar and Grill Tampa	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	5313 19th St E	open
WOODY’S RIVER ROO PUB, GRILL & TIKI BAR	Casual dining · Bar		5717 18th St E	open
Chumlee's Wings Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3436 US Highway 301 N	closed
Villa Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	5463 Factory Shops Blvd	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	11	10	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	12	12	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	17	16	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	19	18	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	19	19	10	8	1	—	NAICS1997
1999	21	20	12	7	1	1	NAICS1997
2000	19	18	8	9	1	1	NAICS1997
2001	17	16	8	8	—	1	NAICS1997
2002	23	22	11	9	2	1	NAICS1997
2003	23	21	10	9	2	1	NAICS2002
2004	22	20	11	8	1	1	NAICS2002
2005	24	22	10	9	3	1	NAICS2002
2006	26	24	11	10	3	1	NAICS2002
2007	24	22	7	12	3	1	NAICS2002
2008	26	23	8	13	2	2	NAICS2007
2009	26	24	8	13	3	1	NAICS2007
2010	28	26	10	13	3	1	NAICS2007
2011	29	27	11	12	3	2	NAICS2007
2012	33	30	12	14	3	2	NAICS2012
2013	32	30	11	14	3	2	NAICS2012
2014	32	30	10	15	3	2	NAICS2012
2015	32	30	11	14	3	2	NAICS2012
2016	31	29	12	12	3	2	NAICS2012
2017	32	31	12	12	4	—	NAICS2017
2018	33	32	12	13	4	—	NAICS2017
2019	30	29	12	13	3	—	NAICS2017
2020	32	30	12	14	3	—	NAICS2017
2021	30	27	13	10	3	—	NAICS2017
2022	28	26	11	11	3	—	NAICS2022
2023	29	25	13	8	3	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 34222. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
34208	3.6 mi	56	2023
34221	4.0 mi	44	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.