BMIE Market 34240

Sarasota County, Florida · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	18,774 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,389 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	7,390 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±483 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	11,501 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	5,549 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$130,148 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±13,056 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	49.7 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,549 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±164 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$698,800 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±44,532 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	66.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	23 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 34240
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	3.5 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+155.6% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+283.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+475.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+1,050.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	22 (range 15–29) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +1.2 per year, r² 0.61) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	89 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	85 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	85 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	98 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 34240. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +1.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.61, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Florida and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 918, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 89 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	85.4	85	40%	+34.1
Restaurant Opportunity Score	85.1	85	35%	+29.8
Market Momentum Score	98.4	98	25%	+24.6

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 85 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	18,774	80	40%	+32.1
Median household income (ACS)	130,148	93	40%	+37.2
Households (ACS)	7,390	80	20%	+16.0

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 85 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	283.3	99	35%	+34.6
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	12.3	63	25%	+15.9
Population (ACS)	18,774	80	20%	+16.1
Median household income (ACS)	130,148	93	20%	+18.6

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 98 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	155.6	98	50%	+49.1
10-year restaurant growth	283.3	99	30%	+29.7
20-year restaurant growth	475	98	20%	+19.7

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (57)

By cuisine

American 10 · Coffee 9 · Dessert 7 · Juice / smoothies 5 · Bakery 4 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 4 · Sandwiches 4 · Steakhouse 3 · Breakfast 2 · British / Irish pub food 2 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 2 · Healthy / salads / bowls 2 · Pizza 2 · Seafood 2 · Tea / bubble tea 2 · Asian 1 · BBQ 1 · Burgers 1 · Indian 1 · Italian 1 · Korean 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Vegetarian 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 28 · Dessert 9 · Bar 8 · Coffee shop 8 · Juice, smoothie, tea 7 · Bakery 5 · Café 5 · Quick service 5 · Casual dining 3 · Specialty food shop 3 · Winery / distillery / taproom 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Food truck 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
131 MAIN Restaurant 131 MAIN Restaurant- Lakewood Ranch	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · American	6608 University Pkwy	open
A Slice of Heaven	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	7357 International Pl Ste 106	open
Aint No Thang	Restaurant (service type not stated)		365 Sarasota Center Blvd	open
Allswell	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		7500 Cove Ter	open
Bad Ass Coffee of Hawaii Bad Ass Coffee of Hawaii	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	6588 University Pkwy	open
Bueno Coffee Club	Coffee shop	Coffee	6901 Professional Pkwy E	open
Carved Crafted Sandwiches	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	1551 Lakefront Dr	open
Chicken Salad Chick Chicken Salad Chick	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern	6650 Fruitville Rd	open
Clean Plate Club Srq	Food truck		7410 Fruitville Rd	open
Cooper's Hawk Winery & Restaurant Cooper's Hawk Winery & Restaurant	Winery / distillery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	3130 Fruitville Commons Blvd	open
Cork & Kale	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	6231 Lake Osprey Dr	open
Craft Market Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1871 Porter Lake Dr Unit 106	open
Creative Brittles, LLC	Dessert	Dessert	9305 Fruitville Rd	open
Crop Juice Waterside Place	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	1580 Lakefront Dr Unit 100	open
Deep Lagoon Seafood & Oyster House - Lakewood Ranch, FL Deep Lagoon Seafood & Oyster House - Ft. Myers, FL	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1540 Lakefront Dr	open
Division 3	Restaurant (service type not stated)		6311 Porter Rd Unit 3	open
Duck Donuts Duck Donuts	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	1580 Lakefront Dr Unit 102	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	3090 Fruitville Commons Blvd Unit 101	open
Eatalia Market	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · Italian	1561 Lakefront Dr	open
Faggotopia	Quick service		2381 Seattle Slew Dr	open
Flav's Bakery and Gourmet	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	1885 Porter Lake Dr	open
Flower Child Flower Child	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Healthy / salads / bowls · Vegetarian	6532 University Pkwy Suite 160	open
Forked At Waterside	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	7600 Island Cove Terrace, Ste 100	open
Friendly's Ice Cream Shop	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	6151 Lake Osprey Dr	open
GatorBraid Fundraising	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2341 Porter Lake Dr Ste 108	open
Good Liquid Distilling Company	Brewery / taproom · Winery / distillery / taproom · Casual dining · Bar		1561 Lakefront Dr Unit 102	open
Hot Stuff Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	6290 Lake Osprey Dr	open
Indian Creek Ranch	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Indian	13402 Fruitville Rd	open
Island Lifestyle Importers	Bar		426 Interstate Ct	open
Kilwins Ice Cream - Chocolate - Fudge Kilwins	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	1561 Lakefront Dr	open
KORE STEAKHOUSE	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Korean · Steakhouse · Asian	1561 Lakefront Dr	open
Linksters Tap Room	Bar	British / Irish pub food	6279 Lake Osprey Dr	open
Lucky Pelican	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	6239 Lake Osprey Dr	open
Maya SpeakTiki	Bar		1550 Lakefront Dr	open
Mcclain's Homemade Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	1891 Porter Lake Dr Ste 109	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	6508 University Pkwy	open
Mountainside Pizza Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5314 Paylor Ln	open
O & A Coffee and Supply (Waterside Place)	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	1570 Lakefront Dr	open
Owens Fish Camp	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	6516 University Pkwy	open
Paddy Wagon Irish Pub - Fruitville Commons	Bar	British / Irish pub food	3070 Fruitville Commons Blvd Unit 130	open
Prima Pizza, Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5314 Paylor Ln	open
Reform Coffee	Juice, smoothie, tea · Coffee shop · Café	Juice / smoothies · Coffee	7839 Fruitville Rd	open
Roma Rosa	Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea	Coffee · Tea / bubble tea		open
Ruth's Chris Steak House Ruth's Chris Steak House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · American	6490 University Pkwy	open
Sarasota Coffee & Tea Compan	Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea	Coffee · Tea / bubble tea	1937 Barber Rd	open
Smoothie King - Lakewood Ranch Smoothie King	Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls	7180 University Pkwy	open
Southside Pizza Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5314 Paylor Ln	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	7224 University Pkwy	open
Stottlemyer's Smokehouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	19 East Rd	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	6290 Lake Osprey Dr	open
Swirl World	Dessert · Juice, smoothie, tea	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Juice / smoothies · Dessert	6601 Bee Ridge Rd	open
The Original Wolfie's Deli, Bakery & Takeaway \| Wolfie's \| Rascal House \| Epicure Market \| Pumperniks \| Jerry's Famous Deli	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Bakery	Sandwiches · Bakery	5318 Paylor Ln	open
The Toasted Yolk Cafe The Toasted Yolk Cafe	Café	Breakfast · Coffee · American	6562 University Pkwy Ste 150	open
Twin Peaks Twin Peaks Restaurants	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Southwestern / Tex-Mex	3060 Fruitville Commons Blvd	open
VCo Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	3080 Fruitville Commons Blvd	open
Wow Wow Lemonade Sarasota LWR Wow Wow Lemonade	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	3110 Fruitville Commons Blvd	open
German Sweets	Bakery	Bakery	820 Bell Rd	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	3	3	1	1	1	—	NAICS1997
1999	4	3	1	1	1	—	NAICS1997
2000	6	4	1	2	1	—	NAICS1997
2001	4	2	—	1	1	—	NAICS1997
2002	5	2	—	2	—	1	NAICS1997
2003	6	4	2	2	—	1	NAICS2002
2004	6	4	1	3	—	1	NAICS2002
2005	7	3	—	2	1	2	NAICS2002
2006	8	2	1	1	—	2	NAICS2002
2007	8	1	—	—	1	2	NAICS2002
2008	5	2	1	—	1	1	NAICS2007
2009	6	4	2	1	1	1	NAICS2007
2010	6	4	2	1	1	1	NAICS2007
2011	6	3	1	1	1	1	NAICS2007
2012	7	5	1	1	3	—	NAICS2012
2013	9	6	1	2	3	—	NAICS2012
2014	9	6	1	3	2	—	NAICS2012
2015	10	7	3	2	2	—	NAICS2012
2016	10	7	2	2	3	—	NAICS2012
2017	17	11	4	3	3	—	NAICS2017
2018	15	9	4	—	3	—	NAICS2017
2019	16	10	6	—	3	—	NAICS2017
2020	13	6	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	18	12	6	3	3	—	NAICS2017
2022	22	15	8	3	4	—	NAICS2022
2023	27	23	10	8	5	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 34240. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
34202	4.7 mi	72	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.