BMIE Market 34288

Sarasota County, Florida · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	18,231 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,853 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	6,411 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±509 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	10,856 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	5,083 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$84,211 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±8,041 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	40.1 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,119 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±222 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$360,700 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±18,070 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	19.3 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	11 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 34288
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	3.7 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-8.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+83.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+1,100.0% DERIVED: 2001 → 2021, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+1,000.0% DERIVED: 2001 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	15 (range 13–17) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.5 per year, r² 0.67) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	73 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	74 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	83 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	57 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 34288. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.5 restaurants per year, r² 0.67, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Florida and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 918, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 73 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	74.4	74	40%	+29.8
Restaurant Opportunity Score	82.6	83	35%	+28.9
Market Momentum Score	56.7	57	25%	+14.2

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 74 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	18,231	80	40%	+31.9
Median household income (ACS)	84,211	67	40%	+26.9
Households (ACS)	6,411	78	20%	+15.6

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 83 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	83.3	89	35%	+31.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	6.0	88	25%	+22.0
Population (ACS)	18,231	80	20%	+16.0
Median household income (ACS)	84,211	67	20%	+13.4

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 57 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-8.3	20	50%	+10.0
10-year restaurant growth	83.3	89	30%	+26.8
20-year restaurant growth	1,100	100	20%	+19.9

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (24)

By cuisine

American 4 · Pizza 3 · Asian 2 · Bakery 2 · Chicken / wings 2 · Coffee 2 · Italian 2 · BBQ 1 · Burgers 1 · Caribbean 1 · Chinese 1 · Dessert 1 · European 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Japanese 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mexican 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Sushi 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 13 · Quick service 7 · Bar 3 · Bakery 2 · Café 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Casual dining 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Dessert 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	1071 Toledo Blade Blvd	open
China Chef	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	1131 Toledo Blade Blvd	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	1560 Price Creek Way	open
Empire Bagels	Bakery · Quick service · Specialty food shop	Bakery · Sandwiches	1093 Toledo Blade Blvd	open
Fugu Hibachi&sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	1151 S Toledo Blade Blvd Ste 5b	open
Golden Coffee	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	3545 Bobcat Village Center Rd	open
Jet's	Bar		4800 Hightower Rd	open
Ledo Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Chicken / wings	1091 S Toledo Blade Blvd	open
Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1073 N Toledo Blade Blvd	open
Maggiore Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · European	3515 Bobcat Village Center Rd	open
Miss Thelma’s Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American		open
Northport Cigar Lounge & Smokes	Bar		1141 W Price Blvd	open
Pink Tequila	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Mexican · American	1163 N Toledo Blade Blvd	open
Pizza Hut Pizza Hut	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1181 W Price Blvd	open
Planet Smoothie Planet Smoothie	Juice, smoothie, tea · Quick service	Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls	1231 S Toledo Blade Blvd	open
Pour Amore • Mobile Bar	Bar		3183 Bobcat Village Center Rd	open
Savor 100x35	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Caribbean · Latin American (other)	1083 Toledo Blade Blvd	open
Simply Susan’s	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1093 N Toledo Blade Blvd	open
Spelltacular Sweets	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	5452 Bannock Cir	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	1475 Sun Market Pl	open
Tapas 1	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1083 N Toledo Blade Blvd	open
Uncle Franks Hot Dogs	Quick service		1183 N Toledo Blade Blvd	open
Urban Smokehouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	3582 Inverness St	open
Wings and Rings	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	1081 W Price Blvd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
2001	1	1	—	—	1	—	NAICS1997
2005	3	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	3	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	3	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	2	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	4	4	2	2	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	4	4	3	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	6	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	6	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	9	9	5	4	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	9	9	6	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	8	8	5	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	9	9	5	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	12	12	9	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	10	10	7	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	10	10	7	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	12	12	7	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	13	13	8	4	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	11	11	4	5	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 34288. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
33954	2.0 mi	13	2023
34289	2.9 mi	1	2016
34286	3.7 mi	7	2023
33952	4.8 mi	36	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.