BMIE Market 34434

Citrus County, Florida · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	11,074 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,299 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,184 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±364 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	8,191 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,921 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$68,939 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±11,312 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	44.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,361 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±92 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$238,400 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±13,613 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	26.3 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	Not published for this ZIP 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 34434
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	3.7 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2012 → 2017, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-50.0% DERIVED: 2007 → 2017, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+50.0% DERIVED: 1997 → 2017, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2022	1 (range 0–3) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2007–2017 (11 points, -0.2 per year, r² 0.49) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	51 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	61 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	50 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	35 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 34434. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2007–2017, -0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.49, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Florida and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 918, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 51 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	61.4	61	40%	+24.6
Restaurant Opportunity Score	49.7	50	35%	+17.4
Market Momentum Score	35.3	35	25%	+8.8

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 61 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	11,074	72	40%	+28.9
Median household income (ACS)	68,939	45	40%	+18.1
Households (ACS)	4,184	72	20%	+14.3

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 50 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-50	5	35%	+1.6
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	2.7	98	25%	+24.5
Population (ACS)	11,074	72	20%	+14.5
Median household income (ACS)	68,939	45	20%	+9.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 35 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	-50	5	30%	+1.4
20-year restaurant growth	50	65	20%	+13.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (12)

By cuisine

Bakery 4 · American 2 · Breakfast 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Dessert 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Italian 1 · Pizza 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 6 · Bakery 4 · Bar 3 · Casual dining 2 · Dessert 2 · Food truck 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Bently's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	11920 N Florida Ave	open
Boulevard Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	9576 N Citrus Springs Blvd	open
Fat Cat Bakeries	Bakery	Bakery	2746 W Castania Dr	open
Front Porch Restaurant & Pie Shop	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Bakery	12039 N Florida Ave	open
Heckle and Jeckles Bagels, Cheese Steaks ,Wings, and More	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bakery	Bakery · Chicken / wings	760 W Hampshire Blvd	open
Lou & Flo’s Cajun Creations - Food Truck	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)		13462 N G W Carver Rd	open
Michelle's Homemade Desserts	Dessert · Bakery	Dessert · Bakery	295 W Homeway Loop	open
Moschello's II	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	750 W Hampshire Blvd	open
Ocasio Paradise Island	Casual dining · Bar			open
Sparrows Tavern	Casual dining · Bar		9542 N Citrus Springs Blvd	open
The Moose Lodge #2308	Bar		11890 N Florida Ave	open
Uncle Louie G's	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	750 W Hampshire Blvd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	3	3	1	1	1	—	NAICS1997
1999	3	3	1	1	1	—	NAICS1997
2000	3	3	1	1	1	—	NAICS1997
2001	3	3	1	1	1	—	NAICS1997
2002	3	3	1	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	2	2	—	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	2	2	—	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	2	2	—	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	4	4	3	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	6	6	5	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	3	3	3	—	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	4	4	4	—	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	3	3	3	—	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	3	3	3	—	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	4	3	3	—	—	1	NAICS2012
2013	3	3	3	—	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	3	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	3	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	4	—	—	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	3	—	—	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 34434. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
34445	1.8 mi	1	2013

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.