BMIE Market 34453

Citrus County, Florida · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	10,621 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±939 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,821 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±370 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	10,112 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	5,392 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$57,568 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5,729 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	53.7 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$980 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±163 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$224,300 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±13,708 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	27.1 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	14 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 34453
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	7.9 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+16.7% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+27.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+55.6% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+75.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	15 (range 12–17) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.3 per year, r² 0.45) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	60 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	54 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	59 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	72 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 34453. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.45, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Florida and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 918, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 60 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	53.7	54	40%	+21.5
Restaurant Opportunity Score	58.6	59	35%	+20.5
Market Momentum Score	71.8	72	25%	+18.0

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 54 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	10,621	72	40%	+28.7
Median household income (ACS)	57,568	26	40%	+10.2
Households (ACS)	4,821	74	20%	+14.8

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 59 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	27.3	69	35%	+24.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	13.2	60	25%	+14.9
Population (ACS)	10,621	72	20%	+14.3
Median household income (ACS)	57,568	26	20%	+5.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 72 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	16.7	75	50%	+37.3
10-year restaurant growth	27.3	69	30%	+20.8
20-year restaurant growth	55.6	69	20%	+13.8

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (40)

By cuisine

American 7 · Dessert 6 · Bakery 5 · Coffee 5 · Pizza 5 · Burgers 4 · Mexican 3 · Sandwiches 3 · German / Eastern European 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Italian 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Asian 1 · BBQ 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Chinese 1 · French 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Steakhouse 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 25 · Quick service 9 · Bakery 8 · Dessert 7 · Coffee shop 4 · Casual dining 3 · Bar 2 · Café 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Buffet 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
3 J's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	111 N Florida Ave	open
Baskin-Robbins Dunkin'	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	2461 E Gulf To Lake Rd	open
Baskin-Robbins Baskin-Robbins	Coffee shop · Quick service · Dessert · Bakery	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Coffee · Dessert	599 S Stone Way	open
Blazin 7s BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	3221 E Thomas St	open
Brooklyn Deli Too	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · American	3360 E Gulf To Lake Hwy	open
Carmela's Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	2605 E Gulf To Lake Hwy	open
Carmelita G's Italian Kitchen and Bakery	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Bakery	1665 N Paulette Terrace	open
China First	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	2607 E Gulf To Lake Hwy	open
Cinnamon Sticks Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2120 Highway 44 W	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	2657 E Gulf To Lake Hwy	open
El Ranchito	Quick service	Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Mexican	2645 Highway 44 W	open
El Ranchito Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Mexican · American	2645 E Gulf To Lake Hwy	open
Glee's Daily Bread and Sweets	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	111 N Florida Ave	open
Golden Corral Buffet and Grill	Buffet · Restaurant (service type not stated)		2605 E Gulf To Lake Hwy	open
Inverness Coffee House	Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Café	Juice / smoothies · Coffee	3806 E Gulf To Lake Hwy	open
Jazzin' Bean	Coffee shop	Coffee	2028 Highway 44 W	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Chicken / wings	2901 East Gulf to Lake Highway	open
Lakeside Bar & Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4543 E Windmill Dr	open
Lakeside Bar & Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	German / Eastern European	4543 E Windmill Dr	open
Little Caesar's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	2609 E Gulf To Lake Hwy	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	2801 East Gulf To Lake Hwy	open
McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	2461 E Gulf To Lake Hwy	open
Mookies GFC, LLC.	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	3323 E May St	open
MrBeast Burger	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · Sandwiches	2235 E GULF TO LAKE Highway	open
Olive Garden Olive Garden	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	2151 E Gulf To Lake Hwy	open
Outback Steakhouse Outback Steakhouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · American	2225 Highway 44 W	open
Papa J's Diner	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	2056 Hwy 44 W	open
Papa Johns Pizza Papa John's Pizza	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	2617 FL-44	open
Ruby Tuesday	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	2235 E Gulf To Lake Hwy	open
Scoreboard	Bar		1300 Andrew St	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	2080 Highway 44 W	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	2639 E Gulf To Lake Hwy	open
Tequila Garden Flavors Of Mexico	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	2605 E Gulf to Lake Hwy	open
The Brass Room at Lakeside	Casual dining · Bar	American	4543 E Windmill Dr	open
The Canna Bakery Shop	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	2028 Hwy 44 W	open
The Occasional Cake Company	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Dessert	111 N Florida Ave Ste B	open
Van Der Valk Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	French · German / Eastern European	4543 E Windmill Dr	open
Walmart Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	2461 E Gulf To Lake Hwy	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	2495 E. Gulf To Lake Hwy	open
Flowers Baking Company	Bakery	Bakery	2401 Highway 44 W	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	10	8	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1995	7	6	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	6	4	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	6	5	2	3	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	5	4	1	3	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	5	4	2	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	8	6	4	2	—	1	NAICS1997
2002	10	9	5	4	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	10	9	5	4	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	10	9	4	5	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	9	8	3	5	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	10	10	5	5	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	8	7	4	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	10	7	4	3	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	9	8	4	4	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	8	8	5	3	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	10	10	6	4	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	11	11	7	3	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	11	11	6	4	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	10	10	5	4	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	11	10	5	4	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	13	12	7	4	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	13	13	6	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	12	12	6	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	11	11	6	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	10	10	5	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	13	13	7	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	16	14	6	6	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	16	14	6	6	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 34453. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
34442	3.6 mi	10	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.