BMIE Market 34488

Marion County, Florida · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	11,447 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,424 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	5,107 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±616 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	10,291 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	5,910 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$43,438 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±8,029 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	48.9 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,116 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±93 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$90,300 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±24,351 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	85.6 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	14 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 34488
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	8.8 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+75.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+40.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+133.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+180.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	13 (range 9–17) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.3 per year, r² 0.19) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	62 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	47 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	59 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	88 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 34488. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.19, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Florida and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 918, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 62 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	47.4	47	40%	+19.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	59.1	59	35%	+20.7
Market Momentum Score	87.6	88	25%	+21.9

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 47 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	11,447	73	40%	+29.1
Median household income (ACS)	43,438	8	40%	+3.4
Households (ACS)	5,107	75	20%	+14.9

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 59 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	40	77	35%	+27.0
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	12.2	63	25%	+15.9
Population (ACS)	11,447	73	20%	+14.6
Median household income (ACS)	43,438	8	20%	+1.7

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 88 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	75	94	50%	+46.9
10-year restaurant growth	40	77	30%	+23.1
20-year restaurant growth	133.3	88	20%	+17.5

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (31)

By cuisine

American 9 · Pizza 4 · Chicken / wings 3 · Bakery 2 · British / Irish pub food 2 · Burgers 2 · Coffee 2 · Dessert 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Italian 2 · Breakfast 1 · Chinese 1 · German / Eastern European 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Seafood 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 21 · Bar 5 · Casual dining 4 · Dessert 4 · Quick service 4 · Bakery 2 · Café 2 · Coffee shop 1 · Food truck 1 · Specialty food shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Back 40 Lounge	Bar		15949 SR-40	open
Black Bear Pub	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		12386 E Sr-40	open
China King	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Chinese · American	15924 FL-40	open
Crossbones Grill	Casual dining · Bar	American · Burgers	16460 FL-40	open
Dairy Queen Dairy Queen	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	5240 E Silver Springs Blvd (Hwy 40) 5240 E Silver Springs Blvd (Hwy 40)	open
Darrell's Dog Gone Good Diner	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	5125 E Silver Springs Blvd	open
Denny's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	5751 E Silver Springs Blvd	open
Fire Rock Pub	Bar	British / Irish pub food	18750 FL-40	open
Jan and Al Country Kitchen	Quick service	American · Burgers	2774 NE 102nd Avenue Rd	open
Jan's River Park Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · American	2771 NE 102nd Avenue Rd	open
Kern's Family Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)		18976 FL-40	open
Krazy K's	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	18478 E Highway 40	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	10777 FL-40	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	5245 E Silver Spring Blvd	open
Lena's Seafood	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	18478 FL-40	open
Lili's Dam Tavern	Bar		18973 FL-40	open
Mj's Pizza And Wing House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	5195 E Silver Springs Blvd	open
Mocha's	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	10863 E Highway 40	open
Paradise's Treats	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Dessert	5800 E Silver Springs Blvd	open
pro marriage	Restaurant (service type not stated)	British / Irish pub food	2950 NE 52nd Ct	open
Shelby's Bread Box	Bakery	Bakery	5431 NE 35th St	open
Silver Springs Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	5545 E Silver Springs Blvd	open
Snappy Tomato Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Pizza	14320 FL-40	open
Snappy Tomato Pizza Co Snappy Tomato Pizza - Union City	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	14320 FL-40	open
Springside Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American		open
Subway	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	15877 E SR 40	open
Sweet Jane's Candy Store	Dessert		2774 NE 102nd Avenue Rd	open
Tabby's Resturant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	10863 E Highway 40	open
the filling station diner	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	15990 E Highway 40	open
The Pizza Den Of The Forest	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	14389 Florida 40	open
Wurst in the Forest	Food truck	German / Eastern European	500 S Hwy 314 A	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	6	5	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	8	7	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	7	6	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	7	5	2	2	1	2	NAICS1997
1999	9	7	4	2	1	2	NAICS1997
2000	10	7	6	—	1	3	NAICS1997
2001	11	8	6	1	1	3	NAICS1997
2002	9	7	4	2	1	2	NAICS1997
2003	9	6	3	2	1	2	NAICS2002
2004	8	5	3	1	1	2	NAICS2002
2005	11	8	5	1	1	2	NAICS2002
2006	9	7	4	2	1	2	NAICS2002
2007	9	7	5	—	2	2	NAICS2002
2008	12	10	7	1	1	1	NAICS2007
2009	11	9	6	1	1	1	NAICS2007
2010	12	9	7	1	1	3	NAICS2007
2011	11	10	8	1	1	1	NAICS2007
2012	12	8	7	—	1	4	NAICS2012
2013	13	10	8	1	1	3	NAICS2012
2014	10	8	6	1	1	2	NAICS2012
2015	10	10	7	2	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	11	10	8	1	1	1	NAICS2012
2017	8	7	5	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	9	8	5	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	10	9	5	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	11	10	6	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	8	8	5	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	11	11	6	5	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	14	14	8	6	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 34488. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.