BMIE Market 34638

Pasco County, Florida · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	37,644 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2,563 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	12,048 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±713 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	20,048 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	7,585 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$123,899 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±8,721 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	38.4 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,275 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±191 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$433,600 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±15,138 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	46.3 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	29 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 34638
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	4.0 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+262.5% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+625.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+2,800.0% DERIVED: 2005 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	38 (range 31–46) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +2.5 per year, r² 0.83) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	94 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	92 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	92 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	100 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence Medium · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 34638. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +2.5 restaurants per year, r² 0.83, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Florida and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 918, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 94 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	91.6	92	40%	+36.7
Restaurant Opportunity Score	92.3	92	35%	+32.3
Market Momentum Score	99.8	100	25%	+25.0

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 92 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	37,644	93	40%	+37.2
Median household income (ACS)	123,899	92	40%	+36.6
Households (ACS)	12,048	89	20%	+17.9

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 92 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	625	100	35%	+35.0
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	7.7	82	25%	+20.4
Population (ACS)	37,644	93	20%	+18.6
Median household income (ACS)	123,899	92	20%	+18.3

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 100 (Medium confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	262.5	100	50%	+62.3
10-year restaurant growth	625	100	30%	+37.5

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (72)

By cuisine

Coffee 13 · American 12 · Dessert 7 · Pizza 6 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 5 · Juice / smoothies 5 · Asian 4 · Burgers 4 · Italian 4 · Sandwiches 4 · Healthy / salads / bowls 3 · Mexican 3 · Bakery 2 · Chinese 2 · European 2 · Greek 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Mediterranean 2 · Seafood 2 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 2 · Breakfast 1 · Caribbean 1 · Hawaiian / Pacific 1 · Steakhouse 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1 · Vegetarian 1 · Vietnamese 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 35 · Quick service 13 · Dessert 10 · Café 8 · Bar 7 · Casual dining 6 · Coffee shop 6 · Juice, smoothie, tea 6 · Bakery 5 · Food truck 5 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Alvarez Authentic Latin Food	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Latin American (other) · American	7715 Land O' Lakes Blvd	open
Aroma Joe's	Café	Coffee	7016 Land O Lakes Blvd Unit 108	open
Aroma Joe's Coffee House & Drive Thru	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	7016 Land O Lakes Blvd Unit 108	open
Asian Variety	Food truck	Asian		open
Banh Mi & BOBA	Juice, smoothie, tea	Vietnamese · Tea / bubble tea · Sandwiches	16948 Focus Lp	open
Bee Coffee	Coffee shop	Coffee	8609 Land O Lakes Blvd	open
Beef 'O' Brady's Beef 'O' Brady's Fern Creek	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	7040 Land O' Lakes Blvd Unit 108	open
BellaBrava Bexley - Land O’Lakes BellaBrava	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	16722 Focus Lp	open
Capital Tacos Capital Tacos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	6765 Land O' Lakes Blvd	open
Caribbean Cafe & Bites	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	6622 Land O' Lakes Blvd	open
Catch_23 Tampa	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	3608 Olde Lanark Dr	open
China Star	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	7812 Land O' Lakes Blvd #5701	open
Choco’s Mini Donuts	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert	6622 Land O Lakes Blvd	open
Concord Station - Wellington	Café	Coffee		open
Cotee River Creamery & Desserts Land O' Lakes FL Cotee River Creamery and Desserts	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	6745 Land O' Lakes Blvd	open
Culver's Culver's	Quick service	Burgers · American	7760 Land O' Lakes Blvd	open
Dairy Queen Grill & Chill Dairy Queen	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	17826 Aprile Dr	open
Domino's Pizza Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	17792 Aprile Dr	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Coffee shop · Quick service · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	7044 Land O' Lakes Blvd	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	16055 State Road 52	open
Dunkin'	Restaurant (service type not stated)		11224 Land O Lakes Blvd	open
EggBred Land O' Lakes	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	Capital Tacos, 6765 Land O Lakes Blvd	open
El Sazon de Choko’s	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck · Casual dining	American	8609 Land O' Lakes Blvd	open
Essential Pizza	Food truck	Pizza · Italian	8609 Land O' Lakes Blvd	open
Fire At The Farm	Bar	American · Steakhouse	21500 FL-54, Land O' Lakes, FL 33549	open
Fish Bowl Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian · Healthy / salads / bowls · Hawaiian / Pacific	17782 Aprile Dr	open
Five Guys Five Guys	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · Sandwiches · American	17708 Aprile Dr.	open
Genia's Jammin Juice	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	7842 Land O Lakes Blvd	open
Grain and Berry Land O' Lakes Grain and Berry	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies · Vegetarian · Healthy / salads / bowls	16864 Focus Lp	open
Hawaii Bbq Seafood & Grill Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		17788 Aprile Dr	open
Hawaiian BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	17788 Aprile dr	open
International Beer Garden	Bar			open
Isagenix Cafe	Café · Coffee shop	Coffee	4116 Kristen Ln	open
Jersey Mike's Subs	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	17790 Aprile Dr	open
Jon's Gourmet Products	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	6745 Land O Lakes Blvd	open
KFC KFC	Quick service		17686 Aprile Dr	open
La Petite Panetiere Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	9965 Land O Lakes Blvd	open
Lake Wilderness Beef O'Brady's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	7040 Land O Lakes Blvd Unit 108	open
Little Greek Fresh Grill Little Greek Fresh Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Greek · Mediterranean · European	7810 Land O Lakes Blvd	open
Loyo Ice Cream & Frozen Yogurt Cafe	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	7810 Land O Lkaes Bvld	open
Marco's Pizza Marco's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	7808 Land O Lakes Blvd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	8000 Land O' Lakes Blvd	open
New Tung Tung Two Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	7040 Land O Lakes Blvd Unit 105	open
Nourish'd	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	10509	open
Papa Johns Papa John's Pizza	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	7016 Land O Lakes Blvd	open
Route 787	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Caribbean	10509 Land O' Lakes Blvd	open
San Jose Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	7804 Land O' Lakes Blvd	open
Somer-Hudson Winery & Bistro	Winery / distillery / taproom			open
Stillwaters Tavern Bexley - Land O' Lakes	Casual dining · Bar	American	16729 Focus Lp	open
Subway	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	7852 Land O' Lakes Blvd, Bay # B-150	open
Swede Tooth - A Swedish Candy Shop	Dessert	Dessert	16856 Focus Lp	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service		17077 State Road 52	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service		7645 Land O' Lakes Blvd	open
Taco Bus Land O' Lakes Taco Bus Treasure Island	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	16958 Focus Lp	open
Tampa Bay.	Bar			open
The Black Box	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · Burgers · American	10509 Land O Lakes Blvd	open
The Hungry Greek The Hungry Greek	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Greek · Mediterranean · European	17772 Aprile Drive	open
The Kava Spot	Bar · Café	Coffee	6480 Land O' Lakes Blvd	open
The Lakes Social	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls · Coffee	7902 Land O' Lakes Blvd	open
The Pizza Pie	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	6464 Land O Lakes Blvd	open
The Poké Company The Poké Company	Restaurant (service type not stated)		Capital Tacos, 6765 Land O Lakes Blvd	open
The Whole Cow Food Truck	Dessert · Food truck	Ice cream / frozen desserts	10509 Land O' Lakes Blvd	open
Thirsty Buffalo Brewing Company	Brewery / taproom		16794 Focus Lp	open
Three Chip Confections	Bakery	Bakery	7842 Land O Lakes Blvd PMB 142	open
Truthhouse Company	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	6745 Land O Lakes Blvd	open
Twisted Sprocket Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · American	16950 Vibrant Wy	open
Urban Crunch Creamery Cafe	Dessert · Coffee shop	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert · Coffee	Capital Tacos, 6765 Land O Lakes Blvd	open
Wendy's	Quick service		7775 Land O Lakes Blvd	open
White Room Bar & Lounge	Bar		6472 Land O' Lakes Blvd	open
Whits Frozen Custard Land O Lakes	Dessert	Dessert	7906 Land O Lakes Blvd	open
Wild Thyme Cafe & Market	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	11725 Angeline Pl	open
Tommaso's Pizza Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	6765 Land O Lakes Blvd	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
2005	3	1	1	—	—	1	NAICS2002
2006	3	2	—	1	1	1	NAICS2002
2007	5	4	2	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	6	6	3	1	2	—	NAICS2007
2009	8	8	4	2	2	—	NAICS2007
2010	9	8	5	3	—	1	NAICS2007
2011	9	8	4	4	—	1	NAICS2007
2012	5	3	1	2	—	1	NAICS2012
2013	5	4	1	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	9	8	4	4	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	7	6	5	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	10	9	7	2	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	9	6	4	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	11	8	6	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	19	14	8	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	22	16	9	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	25	20	8	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	36	30	12	13	4	—	NAICS2022
2023	36	29	11	11	7	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 34638. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
34637	4.6 mi	4	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.