BMIE Market 34731

Lake County, Florida · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	12,196 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,148 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	5,075 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±478 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	10,815 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	5,354 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$66,300 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±13,178 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	48.9 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,286 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±301 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$199,800 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±38,374 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	15.8 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	9 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 34731
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	5.6 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+50.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+12.5% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+28.6% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+350.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	5 (range 1–8) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.3 per year, r² 0.26) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	65 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	61 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	63 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	72 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 34731. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.26, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Florida and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 918, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 65 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	60.8	61	40%	+24.3
Restaurant Opportunity Score	63.3	63	35%	+22.2
Market Momentum Score	72.3	72	25%	+18.1

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 61 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	12,196	74	40%	+29.4
Median household income (ACS)	66,300	41	40%	+16.4
Households (ACS)	5,075	74	20%	+14.9

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 63 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	12.5	56	35%	+19.7
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	7.4	83	25%	+20.7
Population (ACS)	12,196	74	20%	+14.7
Median household income (ACS)	66,300	41	20%	+8.2

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 72 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	50	90	50%	+45.1
10-year restaurant growth	12.5	56	30%	+16.9
20-year restaurant growth	28.6	51	20%	+10.2

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (24)

By cuisine

American 7 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 4 · Pizza 3 · BBQ 2 · Breakfast 2 · Coffee 2 · Mexican 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Asian 1 · Chinese 1 · Dessert 1 · Greek 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Italian 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 19 · Casual dining 3 · Bar 2 · Café 2 · Quick service 2 · Coffee shop 1 · Dessert 1 · Food truck 1 · Specialty food shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Big Mom’s Pizza Co.	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	2557 US-441	open
Burke's BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	311 County Road 466A	open
Chacha’s Cheezie Boards	Food truck		1047 Atlantic Ave	open
Cheshire's Hilltop Tavern	Bar · Casual dining		503 N Dixie Ave	open
China Wok	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	3337 US-27	open
Darrell Kelley’s Soul Delicious	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	3430 US-441	open
Florida Air & Heat	Restaurant (service type not stated)		739 Lake Ella Rd	open
Freddie Mac's BBQ Shack	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	2557 US-441	open
Fruitland Park Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	3180 Us Highway 441/27	open
Gardenia Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop	Coffee	604 W Berckman St	open
iBarbque Express	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	3170 US-441	open
Jamaican Jerk Hut & Island Scoops	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	2468 US Hwy 441/27, Ste 103	open
La yaquesita taquería	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	LX10213 N Dixie Ave & W Miller St	open
Legends Bar And Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	3323 US Highway 441/27	open
Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	100 W Miller St	open
Los Reyes Mexican Grill Los Reyes Mexican Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	3430 US-27	open
Mystic Ice Cream Mystic Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	1217 W Miller St	open
NY Deli, Diner, and Bakery LLC	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	3325 US Highway 441/27	open
Pete's Diner	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	3325 US Highway 441/27	open
Rae Rae’s Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	2468 Citrus Blvd, Hwy 441/27	open
Stavros and Sons Fruitland Park	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian · Greek	3223 US-441 #27	open
The Backyard Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Hot dogs	1934 Leesburg Blvd	open
The Rose Plantation	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	150 Rose Ave	open
The Toast Cafe	Casual dining	American	2468 US-441 #101	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	3	3	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	6	3	2	1	—	1	NAICS1997
1999	8	5	3	2	—	1	NAICS1997
2000	9	6	4	2	—	1	NAICS1997
2001	7	4	3	1	—	1	NAICS1997
2002	6	4	3	1	—	1	NAICS1997
2003	8	7	5	1	1	1	NAICS2002
2004	11	8	7	—	1	1	NAICS2002
2005	13	10	8	1	1	1	NAICS2002
2006	9	7	5	1	1	1	NAICS2002
2007	9	7	4	2	1	1	NAICS2002
2008	9	7	3	3	1	1	NAICS2007
2009	10	7	5	1	1	2	NAICS2007
2010	7	6	4	1	1	1	NAICS2007
2011	8	7	6	—	1	1	NAICS2007
2012	10	9	8	—	1	1	NAICS2012
2013	9	8	7	—	1	1	NAICS2012
2014	12	11	7	3	1	1	NAICS2012
2015	10	9	5	3	1	1	NAICS2012
2016	11	9	5	2	2	1	NAICS2012
2017	12	10	6	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	8	6	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	8	6	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	7	5	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	9	7	4	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	8	6	3	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	11	9	5	3	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 34731. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
32159	3.5 mi	59	2023
32163	4.3 mi	31	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.