BMIE Market 34758

Osceola County, Florida · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	46,768 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3,766 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	13,661 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±988 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	30,879 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	11,360 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$66,339 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±8,157 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	35.4 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,951 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±115 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$309,100 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±12,530 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	26.1 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	7 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 34758
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	1.6 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+16.7% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+75.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+600.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+133.3% DERIVED: 1997 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	9 (range 7–11) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.2 per year, r² 0.29) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	79 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	73 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	83 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	84 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 34758. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.29, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Florida and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 918, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 79 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	73.3	73	40%	+29.3
Restaurant Opportunity Score	83.4	83	35%	+29.2
Market Momentum Score	83.6	84	25%	+20.9

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 73 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	46,768	96	40%	+38.5
Median household income (ACS)	66,339	41	40%	+16.5
Households (ACS)	13,661	92	20%	+18.4

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 83 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	75	89	35%	+31.0
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	1.5	100	25%	+24.9
Population (ACS)	46,768	96	20%	+19.2
Median household income (ACS)	66,339	41	20%	+8.2

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 84 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	16.7	75	50%	+37.3
10-year restaurant growth	75	89	30%	+26.6
20-year restaurant growth	600	99	20%	+19.8

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (31)

By cuisine

Dessert 6 · American 5 · Bakery 3 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Burgers 2 · Chicken / wings 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Mexican 2 · Asian 1 · Breakfast 1 · Chinese 1 · Coffee 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Steakhouse 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 14 · Quick service 9 · Dessert 6 · Bakery 4 · Bar 4 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Casual dining 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Food truck 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Asian Fusion	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian · Chinese	4790 Marigold Ave	open
Barrio Burrito Bar Barrio - Burrito Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Mexican	4738 Marigold Ave	open
Bojangles Bojangles	Quick service	Chicken / wings · American	4760 Marigold Ave	open
Cold Stone Creamery Cold Stone Creamery	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	4752 Marigold Ave Ste A11	open
Couture Cakes by Christina	Bakery	Bakery		open
Dandies Candies	Dessert	Dessert	4850 Dunfield Ct	open
DerMar Frappe	Restaurant (service type not stated)		103 Aurelia Ct	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	5125 S Orange Blossom Trail	open
First Watch First Watch	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast · American	4770 Marigold Ave	open
Five Guys	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	4754 Marigold Ave	open
Flowers Bakery Outlet Flowers' discount Bakery Store	Bakery	Bakery	4990 S Orange Blossom Trail	open
Guzman/de Jesus Bar & Lounge	Bar		4727 Ashurst St	open
Island Mike's Tiki Bar	Bar		4542 Caladium Ct	open
Jersey Mike's Subs	Quick service		4672 Marigold Ave	open
Kam Burgers	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Delivery-focused		120 Citrine Loop	open
KFC KFC	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Chicken / wings · Sandwiches	4466 Pleasant Hill Rd	open
Man2Magic	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	5298 Giron Cir	open
Outback Steakhouse Outback Steakhouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · American	4680 Marigold Ave	open
Panda Express	Quick service		4660 Marigold Ave	open
Papa John's Papa John's	Quick service		4736 MARIGOLD AVE	open
Portzela Bakery Co.	Bakery	Bakery	4692 Alexander Pk Dr	open
Quaker Oats Company	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other		1650 S Poinciana Blvd	open
Rita’s of Poinciana FL Rita's Italian Ice	Dessert · Bar	Dessert		open
Sonic Drive-In Sonic Drive-In	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	1051 Cypress Parkway	open
Super Weenie Hut Jr's	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Bar			open
Tacomex	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1965 Avenue A	open
The Burger Lab	Food truck · Quick service	Burgers		open
Twistee Treat Poinciana Twistee Treat USA	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	4485 S Poinciana Blvd	open
Twistee Treat Poinciana II Twistee Treat USA	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	1665 S Poinciana Blvd	open
WilDu's Caribbean Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	520 Brentford Ct	open
Wright's culinary 22	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4607 Kalispell Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1997	3	3	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	3	3	—	3	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	3	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	4	3	2	1	—	1	NAICS2002
2006	4	3	1	2	—	1	NAICS2002
2007	4	3	—	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	4	4	1	3	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	4	4	1	3	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	5	5	2	3	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	6	5	2	3	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	5	5	—	5	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	4	4	—	4	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	6	6	1	5	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	9	7	1	5	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	9	8	1	5	2	—	NAICS2012
2017	7	7	—	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	6	6	—	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	7	6	—	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	10	7	—	4	3	—	NAICS2017
2021	8	7	—	4	3	—	NAICS2017
2022	11	8	—	4	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	11	7	—	4	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 34758. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
34746	4.1 mi	152	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.