BMIE Market 35040

Shelby County, Alabama · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	19,304 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±995 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	7,358 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±450 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	14,965 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	6,484 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$84,554 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3,869 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	35.3 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,512 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±184 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$232,300 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±10,065 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	77.9 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	32 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 35040
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	12.0 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+23.1% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+52.4% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+220.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+700.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	38 (range 34–42) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +1.4 per year, r² 0.86) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	76 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	75 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	71 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	84 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 35040. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +1.4 restaurants per year, r² 0.86, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Alabama and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 471, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 76 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	75.4	75	40%	+30.2
Restaurant Opportunity Score	71.1	71	35%	+24.9
Market Momentum Score	84.1	84	25%	+21.0

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 75 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	19,304	81	40%	+32.3
Median household income (ACS)	84,554	68	40%	+27.0
Households (ACS)	7,358	80	20%	+16.0

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 71 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	52.4	85	35%	+29.6
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	16.6	47	25%	+11.8
Population (ACS)	19,304	81	20%	+16.2
Median household income (ACS)	84,554	68	20%	+13.5

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 84 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	23.1	79	50%	+39.7
10-year restaurant growth	52.4	85	30%	+25.4
20-year restaurant growth	220	95	20%	+19.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (70)

By cuisine

American 19 · Mexican 13 · Sandwiches 7 · Burgers 6 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 5 · Chicken / wings 4 · Pizza 4 · Bakery 3 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 3 · Coffee 3 · Dessert 3 · Asian 2 · British / Irish pub food 2 · Chinese 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · BBQ 1 · Breakfast 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Italian 1 · Japanese 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Middle Eastern 1 · Seafood 1 · Sushi 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 44 · Quick service 24 · Bar 5 · Casual dining 5 · Bakery 4 · Winery / distillery / taproom 4 · Dessert 3 · Café 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Delivery-focused 2 · Specialty food shop 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Fast casual 1 · Food truck 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
7 Brew Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	5065 US-31	open
Adventurer's Coffee Co.	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	10874 AL-25	open
Arby's Arby's	Quick service	Sandwiches · American	1996 Highway 84	open
Bertolone's Classic Italian Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	209 Supercenter Dr	open
Bojangles Bojangles	Quick service	Chicken / wings · American	5070 Highway 31	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	5076 US-31	open
Calera Drive In Restrauant Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		124 Highway 304	open
Calera Nutrition	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Juice / smoothies · Coffee	101 George W Roy Pkwy	open
Captain D's Captain D's	Quick service	Seafood · American	101 Super Center Drive	open
Chick-fil-A Chick-fil-A	Quick service	Chicken / wings · American	64 Co Rd 304	open
cleitin_martins_assador	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	a sua casa poder sempre churrascaria de vc pode ter	open
Corbin Farms Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		173 Co Rd 301	open
Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Cracker Barrel Old Country Store	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	199 Supercenter Dr	open
Creations Galore and Moore	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	8261 US-31	open
Discount Bakery Store Flowers' discount Bakery Store	Bakery	Bakery	730 G Roy Pkwy	open
Domino's pizza Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	44 Beverly Dr	open
Donut Chef	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert	100 Hampton Dr	open
El Rancho Cantina Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Mexican · American	8176 Highway 31	open
Fish Market Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4570 Highway 31	open
Habaneros Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		291 Supercenter Dr	open
Happy Dragon	Restaurant (service type not stated)		100 Hampton Dr Ste L	open
Hardee's Hardee's	Quick service	Burgers · American	8441 Hwy 31 S	open
Ichiban Express	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	160 Marketplace Cir Ste 103	open
Jack's Jack's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	100 Co Rd 87	open
Jessy's Tasty Treats	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	1361 10th Ave	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	1042 Hwy 31 S	open
Las Mesas Mexican Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other)	291 Supercenter Dr Ste A3	open
Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	8111 US-31	open
Magic Wok	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	275 Supercenter Dr	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	706 Supercenter Dr	open
Mexisnax	Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Juice / smoothies	55 Rosebud Ln	open
Milo's Hamburgers Milo's Original Burger Shop	Quick service	Burgers · American	1 Limestone Pkwy	open
Moe & Moore's BBQ llc	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	101 George W Roy Pkwy	open
Momo's Cajun Eatz	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	7850 US-31	open
Ozan Winery & YH Distillery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		173 Co Rd 301	open
Papa Johns Pizza Papa John's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	7097 US-31	open
PITA Mediterranean Street Food - Calera Pita Street Food	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean · Middle Eastern	12 Co Rd 42	open
Pizza Hut Pizza Hut	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	136 Marketplace Cir	open
Pizza Hut Express Pizza Hut	Quick service		11465 Alabama 25	open
Pizza Hut Express Pizza Hut	Quick service		11845 Alabama 25	open
Planet Smoothie Planet Smoothie	Quick service		12 Co Road 42	open
Pollo Goyo	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	8101 US-31	open
Red Onion	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · British / Irish pub food	11475 AL-25	open
Restahurante los primos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	8156 Highway 31	open
Sage Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	4979 Highway 31	open
Seven Den Tacos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	1400-1424 20th Ave	open
Sonic Drive-In Sonic Drive-In	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	124 Co Rd 304	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	720 Hwy 87	open
Subway	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	5100 Highway 31	open
Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	8111 Hwy 31 N	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	4601 Hwy 31	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	121 Supercenter Dr	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	5005 Highway 31	open
Tacos Jalisco	Food truck	Mexican	4570 US-31	open
Taqueria El Gavilán	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Hot dogs	6442 US-31	open
Taquería Los Dos Compadres	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	4416 US-31	open
Tequila mexican	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	8176 Highway 31	open
The Brick Deli & Tavern	Bar · Quick service · Specialty food shop	Sandwiches		open
The Soul Spot Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		100 Hampton Dr Ste L	open
The Soul Spot Wings	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · British / Irish pub food	100 Hampton Dr	open
Timoteo's Burritos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Mexican	284 Waterford Cove Trail	open
Tin Top	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3477 County Road 33	open
Two sisters taqueria	Restaurant (service type not stated)		8156 US-31	open
Vizzini Farms Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	800 Highway 87	open
Waffle House Waffle House	Casual dining	American · Breakfast	5087 US-31	open
Wendy's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	121 Supercenter Dr	open
YHDistillery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Quick service · Specialty food shop	Sandwiches	173 Highway 301	open
Zapopan Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Mexican	45 Beverly Dr	open
Zaxby's Zaxby's	Quick service · Fast casual	Chicken / wings · Healthy / salads / bowls	102 Limestone Pkwy	open
ZENSHI Handcrafted Sushi Zenshi Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	90 Marketplace Cir	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	3	3	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	5	4	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	3	2	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	5	4	1	2	—	1	NAICS1997
1999	7	5	2	2	—	2	NAICS1997
2000	7	6	3	2	—	1	NAICS1997
2001	10	7	4	3	—	1	NAICS1997
2002	13	10	6	4	—	1	NAICS1997
2003	12	10	5	5	—	1	NAICS2002
2004	19	15	9	6	—	1	NAICS2002
2005	17	14	7	7	—	1	NAICS2002
2006	19	15	6	9	—	1	NAICS2002
2007	16	13	7	6	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	14	12	5	7	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	16	15	7	8	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	20	18	9	9	—	1	NAICS2007
2011	18	16	5	9	1	1	NAICS2007
2012	22	19	9	9	1	1	NAICS2012
2013	23	21	8	11	1	1	NAICS2012
2014	19	17	7	9	1	1	NAICS2012
2015	21	19	6	11	1	1	NAICS2012
2016	22	19	6	12	1	1	NAICS2012
2017	25	22	8	13	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	28	26	10	15	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	30	28	9	18	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	27	26	10	15	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	29	28	11	15	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	33	31	9	20	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	33	32	8	22	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 35040. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.