BMIE Market 35043

Shelby County, Alabama · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	15,837 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,452 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	5,289 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±419 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	9,234 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,514 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$121,356 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±10,290 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	40.4 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,322 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±306 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$366,200 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±12,085 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	46.2 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	28 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 35043
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	20.6 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+27.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+21.7% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+460.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+2,700.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	29 (range 25–32) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.4 per year, r² 0.33) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	76 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	82 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	67 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	80 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 35043. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.4 restaurants per year, r² 0.33, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Alabama and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 471, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 76 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	82.3	82	40%	+32.9
Restaurant Opportunity Score	67.2	67	35%	+23.5
Market Momentum Score	80.1	80	25%	+20.0

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 82 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	15,837	78	40%	+31.0
Median household income (ACS)	121,356	91	40%	+36.3
Households (ACS)	5,289	75	20%	+15.0

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 67 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	21.7	65	35%	+22.6
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	17.7	44	25%	+10.9
Population (ACS)	15,837	78	20%	+15.5
Median household income (ACS)	121,356	91	20%	+18.2

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 80 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	27.3	82	50%	+41.0
10-year restaurant growth	21.7	65	30%	+19.4
20-year restaurant growth	460	98	20%	+19.7

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (57)

By cuisine

American 10 · Coffee 8 · Burgers 6 · Pizza 6 · Mexican 5 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 4 · Dessert 4 · Asian 3 · Juice / smoothies 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Bakery 2 · Breakfast 2 · Chicken / wings 2 · Chinese 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Italian 2 · Japanese 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Sushi 2 · BBQ 1 · Hawaiian / Pacific 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Middle Eastern 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Steakhouse 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1 · Thai 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 38 · Quick service 16 · Café 6 · Coffee shop 5 · Dessert 5 · Bakery 3 · Bar 3 · Juice, smoothie, tea 3 · Casual dining 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Food truck 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
4th and Inches	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Juice / smoothies · Tea / bubble tea · Coffee	48 Chesser Crane Rd	open
7 Brew Coffee	Coffee shop	Coffee	9 Stanley Dr	open
Applebee's Grill + Bar	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		89 Chesser Plantation Ln	open
Arby's Arby's	Quick service	Sandwiches · American	160 Atchison Parkway	open
Bojangles' Bojangles	Quick service	Chicken / wings · Cajun, Creole, Southern	15392 US-280	open
Buffalo Wild Wings Buffalo Wild Wings	Bar · Casual dining	American	110 Atchison Pkwy	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	15622 US-280	open
Busy Bee Burger	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	16634 Highway 280	open
Cajun Boys & Our Poboys	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern	48 Chesser Crane Rd	open
Cat-n-Bird Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Brewery / taproom · Bar		11661 Old Hwy 280	open
Chelsea Nutrition	Coffee shop	Coffee	601 Chelsea XRDS	open
Chelsea Sno-shack	Café	Coffee	11728 Chelsea Rd	open
Chubbfathers Chelsea	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Middle Eastern · Burgers	10569 Old Highway 280	open
Daily Dozen	Bakery · Dessert · Café	Dessert · Coffee	16712 Highway 280	open
Dairy Queen Grill and Chill Dairy Queen	Quick service · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	16857 US-280	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Delivery-focused · Quick service	Pizza	376 Chesser Drive	open
Dos Botellas	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	48 Chesser Crane Rd	open
Dos Tequilas	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	10569 Old Highway 280 Ste 102-103	open
Golden City - Chelsea	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	16054 US-280	open
Good Ole Boys Bbq	Restaurant (service type not stated)		16634 Highway 280	open
Ground Up Coffee and Smoothies	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	15582 Highway 280	open
Hartley's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern		open
Huddle House Huddle House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast · American	16937 US-280	open
Jeremiah's Italian Ice	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Ice cream / frozen desserts	16383 US 280	open
Johnny Ray's BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	10569 Old Highway 280	open
Joseph’s Table	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean	100 Chelsea Corners Way Ste 102	open
KFC	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)		16383 Highway 280	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	12429 County Road 11	open
Little Caesers Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	16724 Highway 280	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	16758 Us Hwy 280	open
New China Garden	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	10569 Old Hwy 280	open
Papa Johns Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	100 CHELSEA CORNERS WAY, SUITE 108	open
Pinto Thai	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	16712 US-280	open
Pizza Hut Pizza Hut	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	411 Chelsea Xrds	open
Primo's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	16064 US-280	open
Quiznos	Quick service		16054 Highway 280	open
Saisaki Japanese Steakhouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Steakhouse	16054 US-280	open
Sanpeggio's Pizza Sanpeggio's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	50 Chelsea Cors	open
Scooter's Coffee Scooter's Coffee	Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Coffee · Juice / smoothies	200 Atchison Pkwy	open
Sneaky Pete's Hotdogs Sneaky Pete's Bar & Grill	Quick service	Hot dogs · American	16837 US-280	open
Sonic Drive In Sonic Drive-In	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	64 Chelsea Pointe Drive	open
Station 31 Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	104 Chesser Dr	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	100 Chelsea Corners Way Ste 107	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	16077 US-280	open
T's SnoBiz	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	16585 Highway 280	open
Taco Bell	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	16778 Hwy. 280	open
Tacos El Paisano	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	50 Griffin Corporation Dr	open
Tacos Veracruz	Food truck	Mexican	16585 Highway 280	open
Tangerine Cookies	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	60 Chelsea Cors	open
Tee's Cakes & Pastries	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	Benson Plaza, 100 Chelsea Corners Way #109	open
The Pita Hut, Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		100 Chelsea Corners Way Ste 102	open
US Hwy 280 & Chesser Dr Scooter's Coffee	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	200 Atchinson Dr.	open
Waffle House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	218 ATCHINSON Pkwy	open
Wendy's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	16056 Highway 280	open
Whataburger	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	16064 Highway 280	open
Zapopan Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Latin American (other) · American	89 Chesser Plantation Ln	open
ZENSHI Handcrafted Sushi Zenshi Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Healthy / salads / bowls · Hawaiian / Pacific	501 Chelsea Xrds	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	2	1	1	—	—	1	NAICS1997
2000	2	1	1	—	—	1	NAICS1997
2001	4	3	2	1	—	1	NAICS1997
2002	6	6	5	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	5	5	3	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	6	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	9	9	4	4	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	10	10	4	6	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	16	16	7	9	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	19	19	8	10	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	20	20	8	12	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	19	19	9	10	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	22	22	9	13	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	22	22	6	14	2	—	NAICS2012
2013	23	23	7	14	2	—	NAICS2012
2014	26	25	9	14	2	—	NAICS2012
2015	23	23	7	15	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	24	23	6	16	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	25	24	7	15	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	22	22	8	12	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	22	22	8	12	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	24	24	9	12	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	25	24	7	14	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	30	28	11	14	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	31	28	12	12	3	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 35043. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
35124	4.6 mi	58	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.