BMIE Market 35078

Shelby County, Alabama · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	2,170 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±385 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	857 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±158 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	2,082 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	935 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$75,056 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±13,192 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	45.0 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±10 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$842 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±42 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$216,100 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±17,738 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	43.2 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	4 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 35078
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	14.4 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2016 → 2021, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+300.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+33.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+300.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	5 (range 3–7) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2011–2023 (11 points, +0.1 per year, r² 0.30) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	58 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	50 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	65 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	62 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 35078. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2011–2023, +0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.30, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Alabama and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 471, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 58 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	49.9	50	40%	+20.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	65.4	65	35%	+22.9
Market Momentum Score	61.5	62	25%	+15.4

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 50 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	2,170	46	40%	+18.5
Median household income (ACS)	75,056	55	40%	+22.1
Households (ACS)	857	47	20%	+9.3

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 65 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	300	99	35%	+34.7
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	18.4	41	25%	+10.4
Population (ACS)	2,170	46	20%	+9.3
Median household income (ACS)	75,056	55	20%	+11.0

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 62 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	300	99	30%	+29.8
20-year restaurant growth	33.3	54	20%	+10.9

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (13)

By cuisine

Cajun, Creole, Southern 4 · American 2 · BBQ 2 · Burgers 2 · Chicken / wings 1 · Coffee 1 · Mexican 1 · Pizza 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Seafood 1 · Steakhouse 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 9 · Quick service 4 · Bar 1 · Café 1 · Casual dining 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Food truck 1 · Other 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Bigman's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Seafood · Cajun, Creole, Southern	39622 AL-25	open
Burger King	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	5482 Hwy 280	open
Coffee Shoppe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop	Coffee	5275 US-280	open
Coosa Pines Steakhouse and BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · Cajun, Creole, Southern · BBQ	16630 Plant Rd	open
El Pastorcito Taco Truck	Food truck	Mexican	5373 US-280	open
Jack's Jack's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	113 US-280	open
Jack's	Restaurant (service type not stated)		113 Hwy 280 E	open
Jack's Family Restaurant	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	113 Highway 280	open
Little Caesars Express Little Caesars	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	5426 US-280	open
Main St. Kitchen - Meat & Three	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	5482 US-280	open
Morgan Creek Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		181 Morgan Creek Ln	open
Popeyes Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen	Quick service	Chicken / wings · Cajun, Creole, Southern	5478 Highway 280	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	5373 Highway 280	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	2	2	—	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	3	3	1	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	3	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	3	3	1	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	3	3	1	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	2	2	—	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	2	2	—	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	3	3	1	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	3	3	1	2	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	4	4	2	2	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	3	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	3	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	3	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	2	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	3	3	2	—	—	—	NAICS2012
2019	3	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	3	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	3	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	3	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	4	4	—	3	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 35078. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.