BMIE Market 36580

Baldwin County, Alabama · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	6,638 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,172 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,419 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±332 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	5,420 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,422 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$62,802 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±19,297 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	36.0 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,058 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±127 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$262,100 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±27,928 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	52.6 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	6 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 36580
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	5.5 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+100.0% DERIVED: 2016 → 2021, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+200.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 1996 → 2016, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+500.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	4 (range 1–7) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2009–2023 (11 points, +0.2 per year, r² 0.29) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	67 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	53 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	73 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	83 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 36580. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2009–2023, +0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.29, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Alabama and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 471, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 67 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	52.7	53	40%	+21.1
Restaurant Opportunity Score	73.0	73	35%	+25.6
Market Momentum Score	82.8	83	25%	+20.7

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 53 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	6,638	65	40%	+25.9
Median household income (ACS)	62,802	35	40%	+13.9
Households (ACS)	2,419	64	20%	+12.8

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 73 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	200	97	35%	+34.1
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	9.0	76	25%	+19.0
Population (ACS)	6,638	65	20%	+13.0
Median household income (ACS)	62,802	35	20%	+7.0

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 83 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	100	96	50%	+48.0
10-year restaurant growth	200	97	30%	+29.2
20-year restaurant growth	0	28	20%	+5.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (12)

By cuisine

American 3 · Breakfast 2 · Coffee 2 · Bakery 1 · BBQ 1 · Burgers 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Dessert 1 · Pizza 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1

By type

Casual dining 3 · Restaurant (service type not stated) 3 · Bar 2 · Café 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Bakery 1 · Dessert 1 · Food truck 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Quick service 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Central Perk Cafe at Decades	Café · Juice, smoothie, tea · Coffee shop	Coffee · Tea / bubble tea	110 AL-59	open
Dan's Diner	Casual dining	American · Burgers	105 NW 1st St	open
Decades Family Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · American	110 AL-59	open
Jack's Jack's	Quick service		906 S. State Hwy 59	open
Jeep Bar	Bar		23051 County Road 38	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	1033 Highway 59 S	open
L.A. Barbeque	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	603 AL-59	open
Salty Barb's	Bar · Casual dining		205 NW 1st St	open
SnS Coffee	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee · Breakfast	13445 Co Rd 32	open
Southern Soul	Food truck	Cajun, Creole, Southern	13765 Co Rd 32	open
Sweet, Sassy 'n Southern	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	17399 River Rd	open
Waffle House Waffle House	Casual dining	American · Breakfast	1024 State Highway 59 S	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	1	—	—	—	—	1	NAICS1997
1999	1	—	—	—	—	1	NAICS1997
2000	1	—	—	—	—	1	NAICS1997
2004	1	1	—	—	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	2	2	1	—	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	1	1	—	—	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	2	2	1	—	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	1	1	—	—	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	2	2	1	—	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	3	3	1	—	2	—	NAICS2007
2011	4	4	2	—	2	—	NAICS2007
2012	2	2	1	—	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	2	2	1	—	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	2	2	1	—	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	2	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS2012
2021	4	4	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	3	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	6	6	4	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 36580. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
36576	4.7 mi	5	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.