BMIE Market 37807

Union County, Tennessee · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	11,069 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±778 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,226 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±310 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	9,923 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,534 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$62,673 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4,352 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	44.2 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$846 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±83 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$215,100 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±20,902 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	80.0 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	15 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 37807
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	5.0 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+36.4% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+114.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+87.5% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+150.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	22 (range 19–25) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +1.1 per year, r² 0.88) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	69 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	57 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	69 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	87 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 37807. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +1.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.88, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Tennessee and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 472, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 69 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	57.1	57	40%	+22.9
Restaurant Opportunity Score	69	69	35%	+24.2
Market Momentum Score	87.3	87	25%	+21.8

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 57 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	11,069	72	40%	+28.9
Median household income (ACS)	62,673	35	40%	+13.9
Households (ACS)	4,226	72	20%	+14.4

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 69 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	114.3	95	35%	+33.1
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	13.6	58	25%	+14.5
Population (ACS)	11,069	72	20%	+14.5
Median household income (ACS)	62,673	35	20%	+6.9

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 87 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	36.4	87	50%	+43.3
10-year restaurant growth	114.3	95	30%	+28.4
20-year restaurant growth	87.5	79	20%	+15.7

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (26)

By cuisine

American 5 · Pizza 4 · Mexican 3 · Burgers 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Bakery 1 · BBQ 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Chinese 1 · Coffee 1 · Dessert 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 16 · Bar 6 · Quick service 6 · Casual dining 3 · Winery / distillery / taproom 3 · Bakery 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Dessert 1 · Food truck 1 · Specialty food shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
33 Diner	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	3024 Maynardville Hwy	open
Arjay’s Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar		1345 Hickory Star Rd	open
Baked By Grace	Bakery	Bakery	3933 Maynardville Hwy	open
BoatHouse at 33	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		170 Beach Island Rd	open
China One China One	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	4358 Maynardville Hwy	open
Cool Place	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3925 Maynardville Hwy	open
El Mariachi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	3502 Maynardville Hwy	open
Fresh Wagon	Food truck		3445 Maynardville Hwy	open
Great Tennessee Pizza Co.	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	4344 Maynardville Hwy	open
Great Valley Wine Trail	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		1476 Highway 61 E	open
Hardee's Hardee's	Quick service	Burgers · American	2825 Maynardville Hwy	open
Hunt Brothers Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	6302 Maynardville Hwy	open
Hunt Brothers Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	2595 Maynardville Hwy	open
K K Deli & Tobacco	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	610 TN-61	open
Li'l Jo's BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	2805 Maynardville Hwy	open
Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	2945 Maynardville Hwy	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	2716 Maynardville Hwy	open
Nine Lakes Wine Company, LLC	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		1470 TN-61	open
Pete's Place	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	3905 Maynardville Hwy #3905	open
Starbucks	Coffee shop	Coffee	4344 Maynardville Hwy	open
Sticks and Scoops Ice Cream Shop	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	3570 Maynardville Hwy	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	3781 Maynardville Highway	open
Taco Bell	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	3003 Maynardville Hwy	open
Tacolandia	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	3620 Maynardville Hwy	open
The Diner at Jones Farm & Livestock The Diner at Twisters Shakes & Sundaes	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3019 Hickory Valley Rd	open
The Winery at Seven Springs Farm	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		1474 Highway 61 E	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	8	8	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	7	7	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	9	8	3	4	1	—	NAICS1997
1999	10	10	5	5	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	10	10	4	6	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	8	8	4	4	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	9	9	3	5	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	8	8	4	4	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	9	9	4	5	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	9	9	4	5	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	8	8	3	5	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	10	10	5	5	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	10	10	5	5	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	7	7	3	4	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	5	5	2	3	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	5	5	2	3	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	6	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	7	7	3	4	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	6	6	2	4	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	6	6	2	4	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	7	7	3	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	11	11	3	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	11	11	3	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	11	11	3	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	13	12	3	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	18	16	3	10	3	—	NAICS2017
2022	17	16	3	9	4	—	NAICS2022
2023	16	15	3	9	3	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 37807. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.