BMIE Market 37890

Jefferson County, Tennessee · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	6,821 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±630 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,741 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±279 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	6,668 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,024 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$59,355 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±8,785 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	49.7 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$837 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±170 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$234,200 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±30,711 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	34.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	9 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 37890
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	12.0 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+28.6% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+28.6% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+125.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	10 (range 7–13) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.1 per year, r² 0.05) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	54 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	51 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	58 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	52 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 37890. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.05, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Tennessee and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 472, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 54 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	50.6	51	40%	+20.2
Restaurant Opportunity Score	58.1	58	35%	+20.4
Market Momentum Score	52.1	52	25%	+13.0

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 51 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	6,821	65	40%	+26.1
Median household income (ACS)	59,355	29	40%	+11.4
Households (ACS)	2,741	66	20%	+13.1

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 58 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	28.6	70	35%	+24.5
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	13.2	60	25%	+14.9
Population (ACS)	6,821	65	20%	+13.0
Median household income (ACS)	59,355	29	20%	+5.7

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 52 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	28.6	70	30%	+21.0
20-year restaurant growth	28.6	51	20%	+10.2

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (23)

By cuisine

American 8 · Burgers 4 · Mexican 4 · Pizza 4 · Coffee 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Dessert 2 · Italian 2 · Bakery 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 14 · Quick service 8 · Casual dining 4 · Bar 3 · Bakery 2 · Café 2 · Dessert 2 · Specialty food shop 2 · Coffee shop 1 · Fast casual 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Baneberry Bar and Grill	Casual dining · Bar	American	704 Harrison Ferry Rd	open
Burger Barn	Casual dining · Bar	Burgers · American	3303 Leadvale Rd	open
Casey's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1324 State Street	open
Cinnabon Cinnabon	Bakery · Dessert · Café	Bakery · Dessert · Coffee	3624 Roy Messer Hwy	open
Cobb’s Farm Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	1129 State St	open
Easy-In Market	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	3023 Roy Messer Hwy	open
Huddle House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	3715 Roy Messer Hwy	open
Hunt Brothers Pizza Marathon	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · Pizza	280 TN-113	open
J J PRODUCE	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Fast casual	Healthy / salads / bowls	1750 Garden Village Dr	open
Jiron Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1208 State St	open
La Lajita	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Mexican · American	1906 Maple St	open
Main Street Cafe	Café	Coffee	3624 Roy Messer Hwy	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	3624 Roy Messer Hwy	open
Pizza Plus Pizza Plus	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	1406 E, State St	open
Sonic Drive In Sonic Drive-In	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	1319 State Street	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	3621 Roy Messer Highway	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	3670 Roy Messer Hwy	open
Tenochtitlan	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	1949 Maple St	open
The New Bud's sports Bar	Bar		5858 N White Pine Rd	open
Toro Mexican Grill - White Pine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	1208 State St	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	3663 Roy Messer Hwy	open
White Pine Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	3114 Circle Dr	open
Wilco Dunkin'	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Burgers · Coffee	3663 Roy Messer Hwy	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	3	3	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	3	3	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	6	6	5	1	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	6	6	4	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	5	5	3	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	3	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	5	5	3	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	7	7	5	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	5	5	3	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	6	5	2	3	—	1	NAICS2002
2006	6	6	2	4	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	8	8	3	5	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	10	10	3	7	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	8	8	2	6	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	8	8	3	5	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	9	8	3	5	—	1	NAICS2007
2012	7	7	3	4	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	7	7	3	4	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	7	7	3	4	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	9	9	3	6	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	11	11	5	5	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	10	10	3	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	9	9	—	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	9	8	3	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	8	8	3	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	10	10	4	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	8	8	3	5	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	9	9	5	4	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 37890. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.