BMIE Market 37938

Knox County, Tennessee · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	17,437 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,359 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	7,148 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±477 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	17,085 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	6,906 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$84,135 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7,469 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	47.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,353 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±114 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$322,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±24,519 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	32.4 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	13 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 37938
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	5.3 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+8.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+62.5% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+116.7% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+333.3% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	20 (range 16–23) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.7 per year, r² 0.67) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	77 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	74 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	80 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	76 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 37938. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.7 restaurants per year, r² 0.67, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Tennessee and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 472, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 77 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	74.4	74	40%	+29.8
Restaurant Opportunity Score	80.2	80	35%	+28.1
Market Momentum Score	75.9	76	25%	+19.0

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 74 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	17,437	79	40%	+31.6
Median household income (ACS)	84,135	67	40%	+26.8
Households (ACS)	7,148	80	20%	+15.9

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 80 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	62.5	87	35%	+30.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	7.5	83	25%	+20.6
Population (ACS)	17,437	79	20%	+15.8
Median household income (ACS)	84,135	67	20%	+13.4

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 76 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	8.3	66	50%	+32.8
10-year restaurant growth	62.5	87	30%	+26.0
20-year restaurant growth	116.7	86	20%	+17.2

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (27)

By cuisine

American 5 · Burgers 3 · Dessert 3 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Pizza 3 · Coffee 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Mexican 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Asian 1 · Bakery 1 · BBQ 1 · Chinese 1 · Italian 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 14 · Bar 6 · Quick service 5 · Dessert 4 · Casual dining 3 · Coffee shop 2 · Food truck 2 · Bakery 1 · Café 1 · Catering 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Baker Boys Pizza (Halls)	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	7438 Maynardville Pike	open
Bar 7408 - Restaurant and Pub	Casual dining · Bar		7408 Willow Trace Ln	open
Bel Air Grill	Casual dining · Bar	American		open
Brewsters	Dessert · Quick service · Bar	Ice cream / frozen desserts		open
Bruster's Real Ice Cream Bruster's Real Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	906 E Emory Rd	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	711 E Emory Rd	open
China Jiang	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	942 E Emory Rd	open
E.B.'s Eats & Treats	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Sandwiches	4620 Mill Branch Ln	open
El Metate El Metate Signal Mountain	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other)	4221 Sam Walton Way	open
England Holdings Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		950 E Emory Rd	open
Godfathers Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	7411 Maynardville Pike	open
Hardee's Hardee's	Quick service	Burgers · American	7437 Maynardville Pike NE	open
Mahalo Coffee Roasters	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	1317 E Emory Rd	open
Margaux Alvarez	Winery / distillery / taproom			open
Pins & Pints Pinball Pub	Bar		1336 E Emory Rd	open
Pizza Hoss Emory	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	1301 E Emory Rd	open
Plaza Mexico Mexican Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	7411 Maynardville Pike NE	open
Salenas Enterprises	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1420 E Emory Rd	open
Savory and Sweet Truck	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Catering		200 Sweet Street	open
Scout's Biscuit Company	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1301 E Emory Rd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	713 E Emory Rd	open
The Burgers The Burgers - Emory Road	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · American	1420 E Emory Rd	open
The Last Call Cake Bar	Dessert · Bar	Dessert	7819 Wisdom Ln	open
Travelin' Tom's Coffee of North Knoxville Travelin' Tom's Coffee	Coffee shop · Food truck	Coffee		open
Walmart Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	7550 Norris Fwy	open
Whit's Frozen Custard Norris Lake Whit's Frozen Custard, Hilliard, Ohio	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	7415 Maynardville Pike	open
Wild Boar Tavern	Bar · Casual dining	American	950 E Emory Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	3	3	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	5	4	1	3	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	4	3	—	3	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	5	4	—	4	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	6	5	—	5	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	5	4	1	3	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	7	6	1	5	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	8	7	1	6	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	6	5	1	4	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	7	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	12	10	5	5	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	10	8	5	3	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	9	7	4	3	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	11	9	5	4	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	12	10	6	4	—	1	NAICS2007
2012	12	10	5	5	—	1	NAICS2012
2013	10	8	3	5	—	1	NAICS2012
2014	11	9	4	5	—	1	NAICS2012
2015	12	10	5	5	—	1	NAICS2012
2016	12	11	5	6	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	16	15	7	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	13	12	4	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	16	15	6	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	15	14	5	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	17	16	4	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	17	16	4	11	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	14	13	4	8	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 37938. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
37918	4.8 mi	61	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.