BMIE Market 38053

Shelby County, Tennessee · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	25,303 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,253 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	10,021 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±646 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	27,932 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	11,262 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$58,194 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6,813 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	39.4 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,161 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±93 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$221,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±20,745 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	162.4 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	46 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 38053
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	15.0 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+9.5% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+24.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+48.4% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+84.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	49 (range 45–53) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.7 per year, r² 0.58) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	61 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	62 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	56 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	66 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 38053. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.7 restaurants per year, r² 0.58, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Tennessee and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 472, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 61 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	61.9	62	40%	+24.8
Restaurant Opportunity Score	56.2	56	35%	+19.7
Market Momentum Score	65.9	66	25%	+16.5

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 62 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	25,303	85	40%	+34.2
Median household income (ACS)	58,194	27	40%	+10.6
Households (ACS)	10,021	86	20%	+17.1

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 56 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	24.3	66	35%	+23.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	18.2	42	25%	+10.5
Population (ACS)	25,303	85	20%	+17.1
Median household income (ACS)	58,194	27	20%	+5.3

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 66 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	9.5	67	50%	+33.5
10-year restaurant growth	24.3	66	30%	+19.9
20-year restaurant growth	48.4	62	20%	+12.4

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (127)

By cuisine

American 31 · Chicken / wings 12 · Mexican 12 · Coffee 8 · Dessert 8 · Bakery 7 · Burgers 7 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 7 · Pizza 7 · Sandwiches 7 · BBQ 6 · Breakfast 6 · Juice / smoothies 5 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 5 · Asian 4 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Steakhouse 3 · Filipino 2 · Italian 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Chinese 1 · Japanese 1 · Seafood 1 · Sushi 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 70 · Quick service 28 · Bar 23 · Casual dining 20 · Dessert 9 · Bakery 8 · Café 7 · Coffee shop 6 · Juice, smoothie, tea 5 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Food truck 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Other 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
2KC Cookie Co.	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	7969 B St	open
Anchor Nutrition	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5030 Navy Rd	open
Applebee's	Bar		8472 Us Highway 51 N	open
Arby's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	8636 US HWY 51 N	open
Auntie Em's Sweet Treats	Dessert	Dessert	7969 B St	open
Barretville General Store Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		9053 Barret Rd	open
Baskin-Robbins Baskin-Robbins	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	4758 Navy Rd	open
Bring Great Business to North Shelby and South Tipton County	Restaurant (service type not stated)		8850 US Highway 51 N	open
Brownstone Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Filipino	4750 Navy Rd	open
Buffalo Wild Wings Buffalo Wild Wings	Bar · Casual dining	American	8544 North US Highway 51, Suite 101 Ste. 101	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	4663 Navy Rd	open
C & J's Sports Bar	Bar · Casual dining	American	7838 Church St	open
Captain D's Captain D's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)		7936 US-51 N	open
Captain D's Captain D's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	8342 US-51 N	open
Chick-fil-A Chick-fil-A	Quick service	Chicken / wings · American	8492 US-51	open
Chicken Salad Chick Chicken Salad Chick	Quick service	Sandwiches · Cajun, Creole, Southern	8669 US-51 Ste 101	open
Chili's Grill & Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)		8526 Hwy 51	open
Chipotle Mexican Grill Chipotle Mexican Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	8599 US Highway 51 N	open
Cook Out	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	8569 U S 51	open
Dairy Queen	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	8569 US Highway 51 N	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	7979 Hwy 51 North	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee	8251 US Highway 51 N	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Quick service		5121 West Union Road	open
Eagle's Peak Bar & Grill	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	6168 Attu St	open
El Mezcal	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	8834 US Highway 51 N	open
El Toro Taco	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	8067 US-51	open
El Veracruz	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	4816 Navy Rd	open
Flag City Nutrition	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	8370 TN-3	open
Grand Buffet	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	7954 US Highway 51 N	open
Hangout Millington	Bar · Quick service		5030 Navy Rd	open
Hardee’s	Quick service		8523 US Highway 51 N	open
Harry's Italian Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	8472 US-51	open
Huey's Millington Huey's Restaurants	Casual dining · Bar	Burgers · American	8570 US-51	open
IHOP IHOP	Casual dining	Breakfast · American	8484 Wilkinsville Rd	open
It's Just Wings	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	8526 Hwy 51	open
Jack's Jack's	Quick service	Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	7954 US-51	open
Jackie Mae's Southern Cooking	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	6646 US-51 N	open
Jay's Coffee & Cuisine	Café · Coffee shop	Coffee · Breakfast	4750 Navy Rd	open
Jimeril’s Bistro Wilkinsville	Casual dining · Bar	American	8088 Wilkinsville Rd	open
Kelvin's Hot Wings	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings · BBQ · American	8500 Wilkinsville Rd	open
KFC KFC	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	8611 US Highway 51 N	open
Kickstart Bar	Bar		5960 TN-3	open
Kobe Japanese Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	8510 Wilkinsville Rd	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	4990 Navy Rd	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	6347 Navy Rd	open
Krystal Krystal	Quick service	Burgers · American	7856 US Highway 51 N	open
La Catrina Mexican Restaurant And Cantina	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	8834 US Highway 51 N	open
La Costa Ice Cream Shop	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	8115 US-51	open
Lennys Grill & Subs Lennys Subs	Casual dining · Bar	Sandwiches · American	8265 US-51	open
Lg's Place Bar and Grill	Casual dining · Bar		6353 Navy Rd	open
Liberty Management Corporation	Restaurant (service type not stated)		8800 US Highway 51 N	open
Liberty Management, Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		8800 US Highway 51 N	open
Lit Cafe & Billiard	Casual dining · Bar		7772 US-51	open
Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	8257 TN-3	open
Long Road Cider	Brewery / taproom		9053 Barret Rd	open
LongHorn Steakhouse LongHorn Steakhouse	Casual dining · Bar	Steakhouse · American	8637 US-51	open
Los Norteños	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	7754 US-51 N	open
Los Pilares	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other)	4791 Navy Rd	open
Los Reyes Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	7712 US-51 N	open
Lowton Bar And Grill	Casual dining · Bar		6353 Navy Rd	open
Mandarin Wok	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	8023 TN-3 N	open
Margaritas of Millington	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Mexican	5085 Copper Creek Blvd	open
Mayor's Cove	Bar · Casual dining		282 Nancy Dr	open
Mazzio's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	4734 Navy Rd	open
McAlister's Deli McAlister's Deli	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	8390 Hwy 51 North Suite 110	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · Breakfast	7839 US Highway 51 N	open
Milanos Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	7936 US-51 N	open
Millington Area 51	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	8025 U S 51	open
Millington on 51 Whataburger	Quick service		8612 N Highway 51	open
Millington Pig	Restaurant (service type not stated)		8412 US Highway 51 N	open
Millington, TN Krystal	Quick service		7856 US Highway 51 N	open
Morrie's Tavern	Bar · Casual dining		5147 Easley St	open
New Manila Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Filipino · Asian	7849 Rockford Rd	open
Ni's Brother Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		8510 Wilkinsville Rd Ste 108	open
Nothing Bundt Cakes Nothing Bundt Cakes	Bakery	Bakery	8570 US Highway 51 N	open
Old Millington Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		6748 Old Millington Rd	open
Old Timers Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		7918 C St	open
Olympic Steak & Pizza - Millington Olympic Steak & Pizza - Atoka	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · Pizza · American	8500 Wilkinsville Rd	open
On the Rox Bar and Grill	Casual dining · Bar		6353 Navy Rd	open
Papa Murphy's Papa Murphy's - Jefferson City	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	8390 US Highway 51 N	open
Pardon My Cheesesteak	Restaurant (service type not stated)		8484 Wilkinsville Rd	open
Patriot Box Sports Grill	Bar · Casual dining	American	8834 TN-3	open
Perkins Restaurant and Bakery	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	8472 US Highway 51 N	open
Pig N Whistle BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	6084 Kerrville Rosemark Rd	open
Pig-N-Whistle	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	8800 US-51 N	open
Pig-N-Whistle BBQ and Catfish	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	8251 US-51	open
Pizza Hut	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	7911 US Highway 51 N	open
Popeyes Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen	Quick service	Chicken / wings · Cajun, Creole, Southern	8449 US Highway 51 N	open
Pops Bar & Grill Millington	Casual dining · Bar	American	6365 Navy Rd	open
Rock & Roll Nutrition	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Tea / bubble tea · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	8584 US-51 N	open
Ryan's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	8165 US Highway 51 N	open
Sake Vs Tekila	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	8507 TN-3 #112	open
SB Donuts	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert · Breakfast	4966 Navy Rd	open
Scooter's Coffee Scooter's Coffee	Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Coffee · Juice / smoothies	7971 US-51	open
Shakerag Bar	Bar · Casual dining	American	8902 Rankin Branch Rd	open
Shelby Forest General Store	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	7729 Benjestown Rd	open
Smoker's Section Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		8390 Us Highway 51 N Ste 108	open
Smokin' D's Pit Stop BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	7822 US Highway 51 N	open
Sonic Drive In Sonic Drive-In	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	8097 Highway 51 N.	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	8507 TN-3	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	8021 US Hwy 51 N	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	5128 Navy Rd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	7956 Austin Peay Hwy	open
Sweets n Joi	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	7969 B St	open
T&m Companies Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		8115 US Highway 51 N	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	4811 Navy Rd	open
Tas-T-O Donuts Millington	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Bakery	7816 US-51 N	open
Tenderfix By Noah Schnapp	Quick service		8484 Wilkinsville Rd	open
The Farm Stand at Redwood	Bakery	Bakery	9295 Deadfall Rd	open
The Fiesta Wagon	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	6400 Dower Rd	open
The Haystack	Casual dining · Bar		6560 US-51 N	open
The Point	Bar		5960 US Highway 51 N	open
The Potter's Cup	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	8323 US-51	open
The Wing Guru The Wing Guru - Whitehaven	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Chicken / wings · American	8253 US-51 #103	open
The Wing Hut II	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	4966 Navy Rd	open
Tops Bar-B-Q Tops Bar-B-Q & Burgers	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	8490 Wilkinsville Rd	open
Tropical Smoothie Cafe Tropical Smoothie Cafe	Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Juice / smoothies · Coffee	8253 Hwy51 Suite101	open
Uncle Jay's Bar and Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar			open
US 51 Scooter's Coffee	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	7971 US-51	open
Waffle & Pancake House - Millington, TN	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast · American	4761 Navy Rd	open
Waffle House Waffle House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	8644 US Highway 51 N	open
Walmart Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	8445 US Highway 51 N	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	7895 Us Hwy 51	open
Whataburger Whataburger	Quick service	Burgers · American	8612 N Highway 51	open
Wingstop	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	8390 US Hwy 51, Ste 103	open
Wyatt Earp's Steakhouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse	8834 US Highway 51 N	open
Zaxby's Zaxby's	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Chicken / wings	8537 Us Highway 51 N	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	26	25	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	24	23	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	26	24	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	32	29	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1998	32	28	6	18	3	3	NAICS1997
1999	26	21	5	14	1	4	NAICS1997
2000	27	23	6	15	1	3	NAICS1997
2001	27	23	5	16	1	3	NAICS1997
2002	32	27	6	19	1	4	NAICS1997
2003	35	31	9	21	—	3	NAICS2002
2004	35	31	9	21	1	3	NAICS2002
2005	41	32	9	22	1	6	NAICS2002
2006	40	33	11	20	2	4	NAICS2002
2007	49	41	13	26	2	5	NAICS2002
2008	46	40	16	21	2	3	NAICS2007
2009	47	42	18	20	2	3	NAICS2007
2010	47	42	17	20	3	3	NAICS2007
2011	46	43	15	21	4	3	NAICS2007
2012	46	42	16	20	4	4	NAICS2012
2013	41	37	14	17	4	4	NAICS2012
2014	41	37	13	19	3	4	NAICS2012
2015	42	39	13	20	4	3	NAICS2012
2016	46	42	19	19	2	4	NAICS2012
2017	46	43	20	20	—	3	NAICS2017
2018	46	42	19	19	3	3	NAICS2017
2019	48	45	18	23	3	3	NAICS2017
2020	44	41	16	22	—	3	NAICS2017
2021	42	40	12	24	3	—	NAICS2017
2022	46	44	14	26	4	—	NAICS2022
2023	49	46	13	27	6	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 38053. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
38054	3.8 mi	1	2002

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.