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BMIE Market 38109

Shelby County, Tennessee · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)42,452
2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2,736 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households16,616
2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±860 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count46,594
2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units18,891
2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income$37,496
2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4,630 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age38.9
2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent$1,040
2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±55 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value$80,400
2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5,327 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area59.7 sq mi
Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants12
2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 38109
Restaurants per 10,000 residents3.4
DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year-20.0%
DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year-29.4%
DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year-40.0%
DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file-20.0%
DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 202813 (range 10–16)
FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.3 per year, r² 0.28) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years aheadNeeds more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score43 / 100
MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score59 / 100
MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score48 / 100
MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score11 / 100
MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 43 (High confidence)

ComponentValueRankWeightAdds
Consumer Market Score59.05940%+23.6
Restaurant Opportunity Score48.04835%+16.8
Market Momentum Score11.01125%+2.8
Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 59 (High confidence)

ComponentValueRankWeightAdds
Population (ACS)42,4529540%+38.0
Median household income (ACS)37,496540%+2.0
Households (ACS)16,6169520%+19.0
Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 48 (High confidence)

ComponentValueRankWeightAdds
10-year restaurant growth-29.41035%+3.5
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)2.89825%+24.5
Population (ACS)42,4529520%+19.0
Median household income (ACS)37,496520%+1.0
Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 11 (High confidence)

ComponentValueRankWeightAdds
5-year restaurant growth-201350%+6.5
10-year restaurant growth-29.41030%+3.0
20-year restaurant growth-40720%+1.5
Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (64)

By cuisine

American 20 · Chicken / wings 11 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 6 · BBQ 5 · Burgers 5 · Sandwiches 5 · Dessert 3 · Bakery 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Mexican 2 · Seafood 2 · African 1 · Asian 1 · Chinese 1 · Coffee 1 · Pizza 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 38 · Quick service 18 · Bar 12 · Casual dining 9 · Dessert 5 · Food truck 3 · Specialty food shop 3 · Bakery 2 · Café 1

NameTypeCuisineAddressStatus
3 Flags Grill & Ice CreamCasual dining · Dessert · BarIce cream / frozen desserts · American461 E Shelby Dropen
All American Phla8vors by Scooter Da CookFood truck · Quick serviceBurgers1977 S 3rd Stopen
All in one bar and grillCasual dining · BarAmerican1489 Florida Stopen
Apple and CookiesBakeryBakery3654 Boxtown Rdopen
BlimpieQuick service5263 S 3rd Stopen
Campbell's curbside CafeSpecialty food shop · Quick serviceSandwiches204 W Brooks Rdopen
Captain D'sRestaurant (service type not stated)Seafood1964 S 3rd Stopen
Chester's ChickenRestaurant (service type not stated)Chicken / wings3084 S 3rd St Ste 102open
Church's Texas Chicken Church's ChickenQuick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)Chicken / wings1868 S. 3rd Streetopen
Church's Texas Chicken Church's ChickenQuick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)Chicken / wings3728 S. 3rd Streetopen
Crumpy's Hot WingsRestaurant (service type not stated)4270 S 3rd Stopen
Crumpy's Hot Wings on Third & ShelbyCasual dining · BarBBQ · American4670 S Third Stopen
Cummings Street Baptist Church-finance OfficeRestaurant (service type not stated)250 E Raines Rdopen
D's LoungeBar1481 Florida Stopen
DAT FYE GUY LOUNGECasual dining · Bar4363 S Third Stopen
Dinstuhl's Fine Candy CompanyDessert · CaféDessert · Coffee2599 Harbor Aveopen
Dixie QueenQuick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)American4062 S Third Stopen
Dmc Food MartRestaurant (service type not stated)Cajun, Creole, Southern · American54 E Fairway Aveopen
Don Don's Hot WingsRestaurant (service type not stated)Chicken / wings · American2926 S Third Stopen
Express Stop DeliSpecialty food shop · Quick serviceSandwiches4775 Horn Lake Rdopen
Fab Family Cafe & KitchenRestaurant (service type not stated) · Casual diningAmerican204 W Brooks Rdopen
Girnd City Home BuildersRestaurant (service type not stated)AfricanServing Aroundopen
Hook and HenRestaurant (service type not stated)American · Cajun, Creole, Southern203 W Mitchell Rdopen
In and Out Deli and TobaccoSpecialty food shop · Quick serviceSandwiches1979 S Third Stopen
International WingsRestaurant (service type not stated) · Casual diningChicken / wings · American450 W Peebles Rdopen
Jim Neely’s Interstate Bar-B-QueRestaurant (service type not stated)BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American2265 S Third Stopen
JJ's Fish & ChickenRestaurant (service type not stated)Chicken / wings · Seafood · American1964 S Third Stopen
Kc’s Southern Style RiceRestaurant (service type not stated)4444 S 3rd Stopen
KFC KFCQuick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)Chicken / wings3144 S. 3rd Stopen
Knox Kitchen KooxRestaurant (service type not stated)American5136 Fairley Rdopen
Krispy Krunchy ChickenRestaurant (service type not stated)Chicken / wings2196 S. 3rd Streetopen
Krispy Krunchy Chicken Krispy Krunchy ChickenQuick service203 W Mitchell Rdopen
Krispy Krunchy ChickenQuick service4315 S 3rd Stopen
Lil' Bit of CountryRestaurant (service type not stated)American3170 Rochester Rdopen
Little Caesars Pizza Little CaesarsQuick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)Pizza1948 S Third Stopen
Lot A BurgerRestaurant (service type not stated)Burgers · American2260 S Third Stopen
Lucille's Blues & Diner Lucille's Smokehouse Bar-B-Que, Rancho CucamongaRestaurant (service type not stated)BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American4460 Highway 61 Sopen
Macklin CandyDessertDessert451 E Shelby Dropen
magic wings and thingsCasual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · BarAmerican567 E Holmes Rdopen
Mary Jean's Cakes and ThingsBakery · DessertBakery · Dessert4377 Neely Rdopen
McDonald's McDonald'sQuick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)Burgers1861 S 3rdopen
McDonald's McDonald'sQuick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)Burgers3120 S 3rdopen
Memphis Finest Bbq&soul FoodRestaurant (service type not stated)BBQ3113 S 3rd St Ste 100open
National Wings And FoodsRestaurant (service type not stated)630 E Raines Rdopen
New Hong Kong Restaurant Hong Kong RestaurantRestaurant (service type not stated)Chinese · Asian1979 S Third Stopen
Old School Hot WingsRestaurant (service type not stated)American · Chicken / wings5320 US-61open
Om Sai Group IncRestaurant (service type not stated)2953 S 3rd Stopen
Opies TransportRestaurant (service type not stated)2435 Harbor Aveopen
Quarter Boyz Mother ChapterBar3940 Sedgwick Stopen
Rayfords All-N-1 Hot WingsRestaurant (service type not stated)Chicken / wings · American4270 S Third Stopen
Remy sports loungeBar3141 New Horn Lake Rdopen
Selena's Soul FoodRestaurant (service type not stated)Cajun, Creole, Southern4441 S 3rd Stopen
Sin City GrillersFood truckBBQ · Sandwiches1621 Fields Rdopen
Subway SubwayQuick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)Sandwiches2953 S 3rd Stopen
Taco Bell / KFC KFCQuick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)Mexican · Chicken / wings3995 S. 3rd St.open
Taqueria ExpressFood truckMexican3119 S Third Stopen
The Buzz Sports Bar & GrillBar2178 S 3rd Stopen
The Cajun JerkRestaurant (service type not stated) · Casual diningAmerican · Cajun, Creole, Southern3113 S Third Stopen
The Spades LoungeBar384 Hollowell Aveopen
Vibe LoungeCasual dining · Bar3141 New Horn Lake Rdopen
VosslohBar391 E Mallory Aveopen
Waffle CreamQuick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) · DessertIce cream / frozen desserts301 S Parkway Wopen
Wendy's Wendy'sQuick serviceBurgers · American3990 S 3rd Stopen
Kre 8 A BowlRestaurant (service type not stated)American3113 S 3rd St Ste 100closed
Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

YearAll food serviceRestaurantsFull-serviceLimited-serviceSnack & beverageBarsIndustry codes
19941615———1SIC1987
19951716———1SIC1987
19961413———1SIC1987
19971716———1SIC1987
1998212031611NAICS1997
1999232231631NAICS1997
2000232241531NAICS1997
2001212031521NAICS1997
20021817215—1NAICS1997
20032120515—1NAICS2002
20042019613—1NAICS2002
2005222071211NAICS2002
20061918513—1NAICS2002
20072020614——NAICS2002
20081817512—1NAICS2007
20092019514—1NAICS2007
20101716313—1NAICS2007
20111716313—1NAICS2007
20121818216——NAICS2012
20131717215——NAICS2012
20141717215——NAICS2012
20151716313——NAICS2012
20162019217——NAICS2012
20171816—14——NAICS2017
20181715—13——NAICS2017
20191715—13——NAICS2017
20202018—16——NAICS2017
20211917314——NAICS2017
20221615—14——NAICS2022
20231312—11——NAICS2022
U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 38109. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTADistanceRestaurantsYear
381134.6 mi12016
Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.