BMIE Market 38120

Shelby County, Tennessee · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	13,309 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,164 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	6,092 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±517 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	14,237 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	6,796 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$123,538 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±16,428 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	44.4 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,705 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±138 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$460,700 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±35,498 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	9.6 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	13 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 38120
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	12.6 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+62.5% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-13.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+85.7% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	13 (range 9–17) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.3 per year, r² 0.22) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	74 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	82 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	82 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	50 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 38120. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.22, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Tennessee and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 472, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 74 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	81.9	82	40%	+32.8
Restaurant Opportunity Score	81.8	82	35%	+28.6
Market Momentum Score	50	50	25%	+12.5

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 82 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	13,309	75	40%	+29.9
Median household income (ACS)	123,538	91	40%	+36.6
Households (ACS)	6,092	77	20%	+15.4

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 82 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	62.5	87	35%	+30.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	9.8	73	25%	+18.3
Population (ACS)	13,309	75	20%	+15.0
Median household income (ACS)	123,538	91	20%	+18.3

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 50 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	62.5	87	30%	+26.0
20-year restaurant growth	-13.3	16	20%	+3.2

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (29)

By cuisine

Coffee 3 · American 2 · Bakery 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Asian 1 · Burgers 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Dessert 1 · Italian 1 · Japanese 1 · Steakhouse 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 17 · Bar 6 · Coffee shop 3 · Quick service 3 · Bakery 2 · Café 2 · Casual dining 2 · Food truck 2 · Catering 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Dessert 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
2nd Cup Coffee	Coffee shop	Coffee	7856 Smythe Farm Rd	open
Benihana Benihana	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Steakhouse · Asian	912 Ridge Lake Blvd	open
Chamaroo's	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)			open
Cocozza East	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	919 S Yates Rd	open
DivaHustleLLC	Bar		5865 Ridgeway Center Pkwy Suite 300	open
Doc Popcorn Memphis	Food truck		5670 Ashbriar Ave	open
Foodline Services, Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1022 Shady Grove Rd S	open
Frank Grisanti's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1022 Shady Grove Rd S	open
Garibaldis Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)		921 S Yates Rd	open
Good Groceries	Food truck · Delivery-focused · Catering			open
Hog Wild East, Bbq & Market	Restaurant (service type not stated)		921 S Yates Rd	open
Holiday Ham Holdings, Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5885 Ridgeway Center Pkwy	open
Holy Cow	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	Poplar	open
In the Mix 901	Bar		375 Winding River Cir	open
La Delicious Cake Company Llc.	Bakery	Bakery	5865 Ridgeway Center Pkwy Ste 300	open
Mem Hospitality Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		850 Ridge Lake Blvd Ste G01	open
Memphis Benihana	Restaurant (service type not stated)		<p>912 Ridgelake Blvd., Memphis, TN, 38120	open
Perch 74 Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	813 Ridge Lake Blvd	open
Savage Samachez	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5865 Ridgeway Center Pkwy 300	open
Sdi Foods Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		6389 N Quail Hollow Rd Ste 101	open
Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	6019 Walnut Grove Rd	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	15 N Humphreys Blvd	open
Sugaroo Sweets	Dessert · Bakery	Dessert · Bakery	797 Reddoch St	open
The Bishop Company Of Tennessee, Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		813 Ridge Lake Blvd	open
The Circle Guitar	Casual dining · Bar		166 N Yates Rd	open
The Hub Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	6000 Briarcrest Ave	open
The Lobby Bar	Bar		939 Ridge Lake Blvd	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	6143 Walnut Grove Road	open
Zaxby's Zaxby's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	1831 Kirby Parkway	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	7	7	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	8	8	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	10	10	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	9	9	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	13	11	7	3	1	—	NAICS1997
1999	13	10	7	3	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	15	13	11	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	16	14	12	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	14	12	7	4	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	18	15	9	5	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	21	17	9	7	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	23	17	7	9	—	1	NAICS2002
2006	24	19	4	14	—	1	NAICS2002
2007	24	21	8	11	1	1	NAICS2002
2008	26	20	7	11	1	3	NAICS2007
2009	23	18	9	7	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	23	18	8	8	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	21	17	8	7	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	12	8	6	2	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	14	8	6	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	14	8	6	2	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	14	8	6	1	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	17	10	4	3	3	—	NAICS2012
2017	18	11	3	5	3	—	NAICS2017
2018	20	13	3	5	5	—	NAICS2017
2019	17	9	3	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	18	9	4	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	18	11	5	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	15	8	4	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	21	13	7	3	3	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 38120. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
38117	3.0 mi	78	2023
38119	3.1 mi	71	2023
38134	3.5 mi	92	2023
38138	4.0 mi	95	2023
38122	4.6 mi	49	2023
38152	4.8 mi	1	1999
38115	4.9 mi	74	2023
38018	5.0 mi	62	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.