BMIE Market 38135

Shelby County, Tennessee · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	30,317 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2,564 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	10,850 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±697 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	30,657 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	11,384 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$97,282 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±9,838 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	40.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,702 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±160 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$287,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±12,678 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	12.9 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	9 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 38135
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	1.6 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+50.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+125.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+200.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+350.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	11 (range 9–13) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.5 per year, r² 0.79) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	89 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	85 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	91 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	92 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 38135. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.5 restaurants per year, r² 0.79, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Tennessee and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 472, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 89 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	84.7	85	40%	+33.9
Restaurant Opportunity Score	91.2	91	35%	+31.9
Market Momentum Score	92.1	92	25%	+23.0

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 85 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	30,317	89	40%	+35.6
Median household income (ACS)	97,282	79	40%	+31.6
Households (ACS)	10,850	87	20%	+17.4

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 91 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	125	95	35%	+33.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	3.0	97	25%	+24.4
Population (ACS)	30,317	89	20%	+17.8
Median household income (ACS)	97,282	79	20%	+15.8

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 92 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	50	90	50%	+45.1
10-year restaurant growth	125	95	30%	+28.4
20-year restaurant growth	200	93	20%	+18.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (21)

By cuisine

Pizza 3 · American 2 · Bakery 2 · BBQ 2 · Dessert 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Asian 1 · Burgers 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Chinese 1 · Coffee 1 · Italian 1 · Mexican 1 · Seafood 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 13 · Quick service 4 · Bakery 3 · Dessert 2 · Bar 1 · Café 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Bar Teets	Bar		6853 Dawnhill Rd	open
Bartlett Donut Man	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	6525 Memphis Arlington Rd	open
Big Dawg's Food, Fun, & Games	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	4731 Austin Peay Hwy	open
Big Myrt Enterprises	Restaurant (service type not stated)		6525 Memphis Arlington Rd Ste 103	open
Cafe 4210	Café	Coffee	4210 Altruria Rd Ste 104	open
Captain Kal’s Seafood Market & Steamer	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	6525 Memphis Arlington Rd suite 103	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	6490 Memphis Arlington Road	open
Freddy's Frozen Custard & Steakburgers Freddy's Frozen Custard & Steakburgers	Quick service	Burgers · American	6780 Stage Rd	open
JD's Wings 2 Go	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	6525 Memphis Arlington Rd Ste 103	open
K's Donuts & Bagelry	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert	6525 Memphis Arlington Rd	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3865 New Brownsville Rd	open
Los Pilares	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	7546 US-70	open
Nonna Maria’s	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	6525 Memphis Arlington Rd	open
Our Kickin Chicken Salad"	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	4010 Britain Cv	open
Paulette's Cakes and Pies	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3713 Beckman Dr	open
Pizza Pro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	4861 Austin Peay Hwy	open
Sonic Drive In Sonic Drive-In	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	3540 Covington Pike	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	6490 Memphis Arlington Suite 111	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	7049 Saint Elmo Rd	open
Walmart Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	6520 Memphis Arlington Rd	open
Zi Jing Chinese	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	6525 Memphis Arlington Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	3	3	—	3	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	3	3	—	3	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	4	4	1	3	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	4	4	1	3	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	5	5	2	2	1	—	NAICS1997
2003	3	3	1	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	4	4	1	2	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	7	5	1	2	2	1	NAICS2002
2006	6	4	1	2	1	1	NAICS2002
2007	7	6	1	4	1	1	NAICS2002
2008	6	6	4	2	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	7	7	3	4	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	6	5	3	2	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	6	5	3	2	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	6	5	2	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	5	4	2	2	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	5	4	2	2	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	5	4	2	2	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	6	5	2	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	8	6	—	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	8	6	—	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	11	9	—	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	9	8	—	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	9	8	3	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	8	7	3	3	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	10	9	4	5	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 38135. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
38029	1.4 mi	—
38133	3.5 mi	89	2023
38134	4.5 mi	92	2023
38128	4.5 mi	45	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.