BMIE Market 38139

Shelby County, Tennessee · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	16,466 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,127 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	5,909 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±400 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	16,086 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	5,648 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$178,661 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±20,011 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	44.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,697 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±343 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$575,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±32,404 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	8.7 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	8 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 38139
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	3.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+100.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+700.0% DERIVED: 1995 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	4 (range 1–7) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.3 per year, r² 0.33) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	75 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	86 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	71 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	64 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 38139. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.33, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Tennessee and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 472, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 75 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	85.9	86	40%	+34.4
Restaurant Opportunity Score	70.6	71	35%	+24.7
Market Momentum Score	64.1	64	25%	+16.0

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 86 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	16,466	78	40%	+31.3
Median household income (ACS)	178,661	98	40%	+39.3
Households (ACS)	5,909	77	20%	+15.4

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 71 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	35%	+12.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	4.9	92	25%	+23.1
Population (ACS)	16,466	78	20%	+15.6
Median household income (ACS)	178,661	98	20%	+19.6

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 64 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	100	96	50%	+48.0
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	30%	+10.5
20-year restaurant growth	0	28	20%	+5.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (12)

By cuisine

American 2 · BBQ 2 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 2 · Pizza 2 · Bakery 1 · Coffee 1 · Dessert 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mexican 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 6 · Bar 2 · Dessert 2 · Bakery 1 · Café 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Other 1 · Quick service 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
901 Collierville Pizza and Pub	Bar	Pizza · American	9947 Wolf River Blvd	open
Colliervilles Best Hot Wings	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	2059 S Houston Levee Rd Ste 118	open
Duck Donuts Duck Donuts	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	2059 S Houston Levee Rd Ste 119	open
El Mezcal Mexican	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other)	9947 Wolf River Blvd	open
Fire 'n Stone Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)		9947 Wolf River Blvd	open
Gail's Pizza Parties	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Pizza	1890 N Glenbuck Cv	open
La Joya Incorporated	Restaurant (service type not stated)		9947 Wolf River Blvd	open
MOJO Nutrition	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	2059 S Houston Levee Rd	open
Salon Pistache	Bar		Salon Suites	open
Soulfish Cafe'	Café	Coffee · Cajun, Creole, Southern		open
TCBY	Other · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	2059 South Houston Levee Rd	open
Wolf River Brisket	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	9947 Wolf River Blvd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1995	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	3	3	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	2	2	1	—	1	—	NAICS1997
1999	3	3	—	3	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	4	4	—	3	1	—	NAICS1997
2001	4	4	—	2	2	—	NAICS1997
2002	8	8	1	5	2	—	NAICS1997
2003	9	8	—	5	3	—	NAICS2002
2004	10	9	—	6	3	—	NAICS2002
2005	10	10	2	5	3	—	NAICS2002
2006	11	10	2	5	3	—	NAICS2002
2007	9	9	1	7	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	10	10	3	6	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	4	4	2	1	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	5	5	4	—	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	4	4	4	—	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	7	6	4	—	2	1	NAICS2012
2013	9	8	6	—	2	1	NAICS2012
2014	11	9	8	1	—	1	NAICS2012
2015	12	9	7	2	—	1	NAICS2012
2016	11	8	6	2	—	1	NAICS2012
2017	9	8	5	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	5	4	4	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	6	5	4	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	7	6	4	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	6	5	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	6	5	3	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	9	8	4	—	4	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 38139. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
38138	2.5 mi	95	2023
38018	3.9 mi	62	2023
38125	4.4 mi	77	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.