BMIE Market 38141

Shelby County, Tennessee · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	23,952 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2,487 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	8,224 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±540 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	22,462 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	7,982 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$60,817 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6,404 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	31.0 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,532 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±83 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$157,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7,415 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	7.8 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	13 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 38141
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	3.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-7.1% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+30.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+62.5% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+225.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	17 (range 13–21) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.4 per year, r² 0.36) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	61 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	63 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	70 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	46 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 38141. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.4 restaurants per year, r² 0.36, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Tennessee and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 472, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 61 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	62.6	63	40%	+25.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	70.5	70	35%	+24.7
Market Momentum Score	46.1	46	25%	+11.5

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 63 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	23,952	85	40%	+33.8
Median household income (ACS)	60,817	31	40%	+12.4
Households (ACS)	8,224	82	20%	+16.4

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 70 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	30	71	35%	+24.8
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	5.4	90	25%	+22.6
Population (ACS)	23,952	85	20%	+16.9
Median household income (ACS)	60,817	31	20%	+6.2

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 46 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-7.1	21	50%	+10.5
10-year restaurant growth	30	71	30%	+21.3
20-year restaurant growth	62.5	72	20%	+14.4

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (33)

By cuisine

American 10 · Chicken / wings 7 · Burgers 4 · Pizza 4 · Sandwiches 4 · BBQ 3 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 2 · Mexican 2 · Bakery 1 · Chinese 1 · Coffee 1 · Dessert 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Seafood 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 21 · Quick service 11 · Bar 3 · Casual dining 2 · Bakery 1 · Catering 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Dessert 1 · Food truck 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
901 Slush Kings 21+	Juice, smoothie, tea · Bar	Juice / smoothies	6456 E Shelby Dr	open
Arnolds Bar-B-Que	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	6721 E Shelby Dr	open
Back Yard Burgers	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	6769 E Shelby Dr	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	6428 E Shelby Dr	open
China House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	4780 Riverdale Rd Ste 10	open
Crumpy's Hotwings	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings · American	6250 E Shelby Dr	open
Dixie Queen	Quick service		6759 E Shelby Dr	open
Donald's Donuts	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	5144 Riverdale Rd	open
Farmer Brothers	Coffee shop	Coffee	5753 E Shelby Dr # 1	open
Fish Fil-A	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern	4730 Riverdale Rd	open
Flava Shack Seafood	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	4780 Riverdale Rd Ste 11	open
Fritanga Nicaragüense "El Diamante de la Segovia"	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Latin American (other) · American	5510 E Shelby Dr	open
Grill Master Chew	Catering	BBQ · American	6721 E Shelby Dr	open
Hot Rooster Wings & Things	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings · American	6755 E Shelby Dr	open
Hot Wings Express	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	6761 E Shelby Dr	open
KFC KFC	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	4790 Riverdale Road	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	5623 Riverdale Road	open
Lennys Grill & Subs Lennys Subs	Casual dining · Bar	Sandwiches · American	5643 E Shelby Dr	open
Little Caesars Little Caesars	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	4730 Riverdale Rd	open
Memphis 6, TN American Deli	Quick service		7041 E Shelby Dr. Suite #109, 113, Memphis, TN 38125, United States	open
Memphis Best Wings	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Chicken / wings · American	5144 Riverdale Rd	open
Mister P's buffalo wings	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	5144 Riverdale Rd	open
Papa Murphy's Take 'N' Bake Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	5144 Riverdale Rd Ste 110	open
Pizza Hut Pizza Hut	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	6725 E Shelby Dr Shelby	open
Pizza Pro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	6755 E Shelby Dr	open
Pop's Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Burgers · Sandwiches	6749 E Shelby Dr	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	6465 E Holmes Rd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	4730 Riverdale Road Unit 300	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	4655 Riverdale Rd	open
Tacos La Fogata	Food truck	Mexican	6456 E Shelby Dr	open
TCE Memphis	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	5144 Riverdale Rd	open
TJX Distribution Center	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		6100 E Holmes Rd	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	6781 E. Shelby Dr.	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	6	6	1	5	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	8	8	2	6	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	9	9	3	6	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	7	7	1	6	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	8	7	1	6	—	1	NAICS1997
2003	8	8	1	7	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	12	12	2	10	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	11	11	2	9	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	10	10	1	9	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	10	10	1	8	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	6	6	1	5	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	7	7	1	6	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	7	7	1	6	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	8	8	1	7	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	12	12	3	9	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	10	10	3	7	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	13	12	4	8	—	1	NAICS2012
2015	11	11	3	8	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	11	11	3	8	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	11	11	3	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	14	14	3	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	18	17	3	12	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	14	13	3	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	15	15	4	11	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	14	13	3	10	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	13	13	—	11	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 38141. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
38115	2.6 mi	74	2023
38125	3.8 mi	77	2023
38118	4.3 mi	47	2023
38119	4.4 mi	71	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.