BMIE Market 40031

Oldham County, Kentucky · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	26,259 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±930 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	8,232 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±343 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	22,863 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	7,151 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$98,513 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7,738 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	39.4 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,092 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±73 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$341,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±14,225 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	66.9 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	43 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 40031
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	11.4 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+19.4% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+26.5% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+87.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+115.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	40 (range 34–46) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.5 per year, r² 0.21) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	76 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	83 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	69 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	75 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 40031. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.5 restaurants per year, r² 0.21, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Kentucky and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 407, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 76 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	82.8	83	40%	+33.1
Restaurant Opportunity Score	69.2	69	35%	+24.2
Market Momentum Score	74.6	75	25%	+18.7

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 83 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	26,259	86	40%	+34.5
Median household income (ACS)	98,513	80	40%	+32.0
Households (ACS)	8,232	82	20%	+16.4

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 69 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	26.5	69	35%	+24.0
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	16.4	48	25%	+12.0
Population (ACS)	26,259	86	20%	+17.2
Median household income (ACS)	98,513	80	20%	+16.0

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 75 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	19.4	77	50%	+38.4
10-year restaurant growth	26.5	69	30%	+20.6
20-year restaurant growth	87.0	78	20%	+15.7

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (85)

By cuisine

American 13 · Coffee 10 · Mexican 9 · Bakery 7 · Pizza 7 · Latin American (other) 6 · Burgers 5 · Sandwiches 5 · Italian 4 · Juice / smoothies 4 · Asian 3 · Breakfast 3 · Chinese 3 · Dessert 3 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 3 · Tea / bubble tea 3 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 2 · Chicken / wings 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Japanese 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Middle Eastern 1 · Seafood 1 · Steakhouse 1 · Sushi 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 47 · Quick service 18 · Bar 11 · Casual dining 9 · Bakery 7 · Coffee shop 7 · Café 6 · Juice, smoothie, tea 6 · Dessert 5 · Catering 2 · Specialty food shop 2 · Buffet 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Applebee's Applebee's Grill & Bar	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	1205 Market Street	open
Arby's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	308 S 1st Ave	open
Authentic Ernestos Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		117 E Main St	open
Beef O'Brady's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	1220 Market St	open
Bluegrass Cakesicle Co.	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	113 E Main St	open
Bully Barbeque	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1225 N Highway 393	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	803 South Highway 53	open
Cattleman's Roadhouse Cattleman's Roadhouse	Casual dining · Bar	Steakhouse · American	1018 New Moody Ln	open
Chen Garden	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	305 S 1st Ave	open
Classic Cuisine Ky	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Catering		1917 Foxboro Rd	open
Cowboys Food Store	Coffee shop	Coffee	810 S Highway 53	open
Cox's Cox's Spirit Shoppes & Evergreen Liquors	Bar		202 S 1st Ave	open
Cracker Barrel Cracker Barrel Old Country Store	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	1414 East Crystal Dr. I-71 & SR 53	open
Dairy Queen Grill & Chill Dairy Queen	Quick service · Dessert · Casual dining	Ice cream / frozen desserts · American	Sq Ctr, 325 S 1st St	open
Dalriada Farm & Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	2810 Fort Pickens Rd	open
Devilish Wings Bar & Grill	Bar · Casual dining		209 E Main St	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	310 South 1st Street	open
Dough Baby Donuts LLC	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	106 W Adams St	open
El Acapulco Mexican Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	1004 Grange Dr #101	open
El Nopal Mexican Restaurant El Nopal Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	412 S 1st St	open
Ernestos Mexican Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other)	117 E Main St	open
Five Star Coffee	Coffee shop	Coffee		open
Freddy's Frozen Custard & Steakburgers Freddy's Frozen Custard & Steakburgers	Quick service	Burgers · American	1101 Julian Drive	open
Game On	Casual dining · Bar		604 Crystal Pl #1	open
Gustavo's Mexican Grill Gustavo's Mexican Grill, Norton Commons	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other)	1226 Market St	open
Hometown Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)		LaGrange Square Shopping Center	open
Hometown Pizza Hometown Pizza. Minford Ohio	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	Shopping Center, Parkway, 107 E Adams St	open
IHOP IHOP	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1205 Market Street	open
Jersey Mike's Jersey Mike's Subs	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	2028 KY Route 53 Suite 7	open
Jumbo Buffet	Buffet	Asian · Chinese	1218 Market St	open
Kebabz Heaven	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean · Middle Eastern	Suite D, 2028 KY-53	open
KFC KFC	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	101 Crystal Drive	open
La Grange Coffee Roasters	Coffee shop	Coffee	110 E Main St	open
Lagrange Biscuit Company	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	109 N Walnut St	open
Lesco Design & Manufacturing Co.	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1120 Fort Pickens Rd	open
Local Blend Smoothies	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	110 S 2nd Ave	open
Long John Silver's Long John Silver's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	400 S 1st St	open
Madeline's Nibbles & Wine	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		111 N 1st Ave	open
Main Street Bourbon & Ale House	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining		209 E Main St	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	3850 Commerce Parkway	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	512 S First Ave	open
Mistry & Son Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1015 New Moody Ln	open
Neveria Y Paleteria Cinco de Mayo	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Ice cream / frozen desserts	101 S Walnut Ave	open
Oldham Nutrition	Juice, smoothie, tea	Healthy / salads / bowls · Tea / bubble tea · Juice / smoothies	315 S 1st St	open
Oli Pollo	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1024 New Moody Ln	open
One Nineteen West Main	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	119 W Main St	open
Palermo's Italian Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	1220 Market St	open
Papa Johns Papa John's Pizza	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1848 s highway 53	open
Papa Murphy's Take 'N' Bake Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	2028 S Highway 53 Ste 7	open
Parker's Seasoning	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other		1422 Fendley Mill Rd	open
Pierce Baking Company	Bakery	Bakery	312 W Jefferson St	open
Pinkies Out Tea Parlor - La Grange	Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Tea / bubble tea · Coffee	205 E Main St	open
Pizza Hut Pizza Hut	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	304 S 1st Ave Oldham	open
Ponderosa Steakhouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	816 S Highway 53	open
Q&a Sweet Treats	Bakery	Bakery	211 S First Ave	open
Rally's	Quick service		808 S Highway 53	open
Raw Sushi Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Bar	Japanese · Sushi	1407 E Crystal Dr	open
Red Pepper Deli Cafe and Catering Red Pepper Deli and Catering - Greater Louisville	Specialty food shop · Quick service · Catering	Sandwiches	103 E Main St	open
Restaurant TRES hermanos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Breakfast	109 N Walnut St	open
Revival Coffee Company	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	305 S 1st St	open
Rincon Latino	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	4205 KY-146	open
SavorMex Lagrange	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	307 S 1st St	open
Seasoned Pub & Grill	Casual dining · Bar		2820 S Hwy 53	open
Shinniganns Pub	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)			open
Sisters Tea Company	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Tea / bubble tea · Coffee	3507 Lagrange Rd	open
Snappy Tomato Pizza Snappy Tomato Pizza - Union City	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	1407 E Crystal Dr	open
Sofia's Mexican Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	109 N Walnut St	open
Speedy Nutrition	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	210 S 1st Ave	open
Spotz Gelato Spotz Gelato	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	109 E Main St	open
Starbucks	Coffee shop	Coffee	3820 Commerce Pkwy	open
Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	2034 KY-53	open
Steve-O's Italian Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	4205 W Highway 146	open
Subway	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	4101 W Highway 146	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	1004 Grange Dr Ste 103	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	103 W Crystal Dr	open
Thc Rentals, Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		209 E Main St	open
The Coffeehouse & Cafe	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	408 S 1st St	open
The Mayan Latin Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other)	Main Street	open
The Sugar Woods	Bakery	Bakery	3117 Old Westport Rd	open
The Wok	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	2028 S Highway 53	open
Torrey Pines Pub	Bar		1808 Gleneagles Way	open
Tropical Smoothie Cafe Tropical Smoothie Cafe	Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Juice / smoothies · Coffee	1407 Crystal Dr E	open
Waffle House Waffle House	Casual dining	American · Breakfast	1001 New Moody Ln	open
Walmart Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	1015 New Moody Ln	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	820 S Hwy 53	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	20	20	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	20	20	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	26	26	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	28	28	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	27	26	10	16	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	29	28	9	18	1	—	NAICS1997
2000	27	26	9	16	1	—	NAICS1997
2001	25	23	7	15	1	—	NAICS1997
2002	28	22	5	16	1	—	NAICS1997
2003	28	23	5	17	1	—	NAICS2002
2004	29	25	9	16	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	33	27	8	17	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	32	26	7	17	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	32	27	10	16	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	35	31	12	18	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	31	28	11	16	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	31	26	10	14	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	34	29	11	16	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	35	31	10	19	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	38	34	12	20	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	36	31	10	19	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	39	34	13	19	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	42	36	15	19	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	38	34	15	17	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	41	36	15	19	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	40	34	14	17	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	39	33	15	15	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	38	31	14	14	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	44	36	14	17	4	—	NAICS2022
2023	49	43	19	17	4	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 40031. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.