BMIE Market 40059

Oldham County, Kentucky · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	20,892 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,108 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	8,250 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±513 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	16,708 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	6,562 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$152,727 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±13,780 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	47.2 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,006 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±306 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$559,300 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±29,194 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	28.2 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	39 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 40059
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	17.4 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+2.6% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+34.5% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+85.7% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+457.1% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	41 (range 36–47) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.5 per year, r² 0.33) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	77 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	88 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	72 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	68 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 40059. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.5 restaurants per year, r² 0.33, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Kentucky and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 407, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 77 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	87.8	88	40%	+35.1
Restaurant Opportunity Score	72.0	72	35%	+25.2
Market Momentum Score	67.5	68	25%	+16.9

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 88 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	20,892	82	40%	+32.8
Median household income (ACS)	152,727	96	40%	+38.6
Households (ACS)	8,250	82	20%	+16.4

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 72 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	34.5	75	35%	+26.1
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	18.7	41	25%	+10.2
Population (ACS)	20,892	82	20%	+16.4
Median household income (ACS)	152,727	96	20%	+19.3

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 68 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	2.6	59	50%	+29.5
10-year restaurant growth	34.5	75	30%	+22.4
20-year restaurant growth	85.7	78	20%	+15.7

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (79)

By cuisine

American 12 · Coffee 8 · Bakery 7 · Dessert 7 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 7 · Mexican 7 · Pizza 6 · Latin American (other) 5 · Sandwiches 4 · Asian 3 · Chicken / wings 3 · Japanese 3 · Sushi 3 · Burgers 2 · Chinese 2 · Italian 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 2 · Tea / bubble tea 2 · Breakfast 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Greek 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Korean 1 · Noodles / ramen / pho 1 · Seafood 1 · Steakhouse 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 41 · Bar 13 · Dessert 11 · Casual dining 8 · Bakery 7 · Coffee shop 7 · Quick service 5 · Café 4 · Juice, smoothie, tea 4 · Brewery / taproom 3 · Other 3 · Delivery-focused 1 · Specialty food shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Alchemy Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Latin American (other)	10640 Meeting St	open
Arata Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	9207 US-42	open
Atrium Brewing	Brewery / taproom · Bar		11205 River Beauty Loop	open
Bearno's Pizza By The Bay	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	5801 River Rd	open
Bristol Bar & Grille	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	6051 Timber Ridge Dr	open
Burning Bush Grille	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Greek	13206 W Highway 42	open
Butchers Best	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers		open
Captain's Quarters Riverside Grille	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Seafood · American	5700 Captains Quarters Rd	open
Carvel Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	5939 Timber Ridge Dr	open
Citizen 7	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	10715 Meeting St	open
CM Chicken Prospect (Norton Commons)	Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Chicken / wings · Tea / bubble tea · Korean · Asian	9422 Norton Commons Blvd	open
Commonwealth Tap	Bar		9411 Norton Commons Blvd	open
Con Huevos Louisville Con Huevos Louisville	Restaurant (service type not stated)		0639 Meeting St, Prospect	open
Con Huevos!	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	10639 Meeting St	open
Crust & Crumb KY	Bakery	Bakery	6301 Meeting St Unit 101	open
Cunningham's Creekside	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	6301 River Rd	open
Dairy Queen Grill & Chill Dairy Queen	Quick service · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	9515 US Highway 42	open
Diorio's Pizza and Pub	Bar	Pizza · Italian	7507 River Rd	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Delivery-focused · Quick service	Pizza	9551 Us Highway 42	open
Dos Aztecas Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		9207 US Highway 42	open
Dragon Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	13206 W Highway 42	open
Drift Bar Prospect	Bar		1900 Victory Ln	open
Fiesta Time Amigos Fiesta Time Amigos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	10401 Meeting St	open
Fleur de Tea	Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop	Tea / bubble tea · Coffee	10704 Meeting St Ste 101	open
Fuzziwig's Candy Factory	Dessert	Dessert	13206 W Highway 42	open
Gelato Gilberto	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	9434 Norton Commons Blvd	open
Gustavo's Mexican Grill Gustavo's Mexican Grill, Norton Commons	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	Mexican	8909 US-42	open
Gustavo's Mexican Grill Gustavo's Mexican Grill, Norton Commons	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other)	10707 Meeting St	open
Hanabi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi	6027 Timber Ridge Dr	open
Harrods Creek Tavern	Casual dining · Bar		6313 River Rd	open
Homemade Ice Cream & Pie Kitchen	Bakery	Bakery	9561 US Highway 42	open
How Sweet It Is	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	9444 Norton Commons Blvd	open
I Love Juice Bar	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls · Coffee	10512 Meeting St	open
J Harrod's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		7507 River Rd	open
Java Brewing Co	Coffee shop	Coffee	9561 US Highway 42	open
Johnny Brusco's New York Style Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	10600 Meeting St	open
Karem's Grill and Pub	Casual dining · Bar	American	9424 Norton Commons Blvd	open
King Donts in Prospect Kentucky	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bakery	Bakery	US Highway 42	open
King Donuts	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	9221 US-42	open
Legend of China	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Noodles / ramen / pho	9415 Norton Commons Blvd	open
Manisha, Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5940 Timber Ridge Dr	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	5905 Timber Ridge Dr	open
Meeting Street Coffeehouse	Coffee shop	Coffee	10616 Meeting St	open
Melrose Cafe	Casual dining	American	13206 W Highway 42 Unit 104	open
Mercato Italiano Trattoria & Market	Restaurant (service type not stated)		10640 Meeting St	open
My, Oh My Lollies Gourmet Pops	Dessert · Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies · Ice cream / frozen desserts	6301 Moonseed St	open
Old School NY Pizza - Norton Commons	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian · American	10600 Meeting St	open
Oldham Brewing Company	Brewery / taproom		10601 Worthington Ln Ste B	open
Papa Johns Papa John's Pizza	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	5911 timber ridge dr	open
Papi’s Mex Grill & Bar Prospect	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	13206 US Highway 42	open
Paradiso De Cecilio	Bar		9519 Indian Pipe Ln	open
Please & Thank You River Please & Thank You	Café · Coffee shop · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	9561 US-42	open
Prospect Cafe	Casual dining		9550 US Highway 42	open
Quills Coffee Quills Coffee	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	11213 River Beauty Loop	open
Rickn's Chik'n	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings · American	6019 Timber Ridge Dr	open
River Road Social	Restaurant (service type not stated)		7505 River Rd	open
Rose Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	13206 W U.S. Hwy 42 #115	open
Seasoned Pub & Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)		6021 Timber Ridge Dr	open
Slugger Enterprises, Llc.	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5920 Timber Ridge Dr Ste 101	open
Starbucks	Coffee shop	Coffee	5929 Timber Ridge Dr	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	9205 US Highway 42	open
Steel City Pops	Dessert	Dessert	6301 Moonseed St	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Specialty food shop	Sandwiches	13124 W Hwy 42	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	5907 Timber Ridge Dr	open
Sugar Tree Sweet Shop	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	9444 Norton Commons Blvd	open
Sushi Master	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi	9415 Norton Commons Blvd #101	open
Sweet Frog	Other · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	5909 Timber Ridge Dr	open
Take Out To The River	Other	Sandwiches	9550 US Highway 42	open
Taste Buds Catering and Events	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4018 Hayfield Way	open
The 502 Bar & Bistro	Casual dining		10401 Meeting St	open
The Blackstone Grille	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · American	9521 US-42	open
The Chef's Table	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	9448 Norton Commons Blvd	open
TurnStation Brewing Co	Brewery / taproom · Bar		10601 Worthington Ln	open
Vallarta Mexican Restaurant Azteca Mexican Restaurants	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	9207 US-42	open
Veronica’s Mexican Restaurant- Prospect	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	6051 Timber Ridge Dr	open
Waldo's Chicken and Beer Waldo's Chicken and Beer	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	10700 Meeting St	open
Watch Hill Proper	Bar		11201 River Beauty Loop	open
Which Wich	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	13124 W Highway 42	open
With You Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		7507 River Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	7	7	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	8	7	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	11	11	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	10	10	3	6	1	—	NAICS1997
1999	11	11	3	7	1	—	NAICS1997
2000	15	15	5	8	2	—	NAICS1997
2001	17	16	5	8	3	1	NAICS1997
2002	20	20	6	11	3	—	NAICS1997
2003	22	21	6	12	3	—	NAICS2002
2004	16	15	4	9	2	—	NAICS2002
2005	18	16	4	10	2	—	NAICS2002
2006	17	16	5	9	2	—	NAICS2002
2007	23	22	10	9	3	—	NAICS2002
2008	25	25	13	9	3	—	NAICS2007
2009	23	23	12	9	2	—	NAICS2007
2010	29	29	15	11	3	—	NAICS2007
2011	28	28	18	9	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	29	27	15	10	2	—	NAICS2012
2013	30	29	15	11	3	—	NAICS2012
2014	39	37	19	13	5	—	NAICS2012
2015	37	36	18	13	5	—	NAICS2012
2016	39	38	21	14	3	—	NAICS2012
2017	39	38	22	13	3	—	NAICS2017
2018	41	38	21	14	3	—	NAICS2017
2019	35	34	19	13	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	37	35	20	12	3	—	NAICS2017
2021	41	38	23	11	4	—	NAICS2017
2022	45	40	22	11	7	4	NAICS2022
2023	43	39	20	13	6	3	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 40059. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
40241	3.9 mi	77	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.