BMIE Market 40121

Hardin County, Kentucky · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	8,836 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±787 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,226 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±224 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	10,124 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,961 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$82,663 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±14,292 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	24.0 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,502 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±126 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	Data source not yet connected
Land area	35.2 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	4 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 40121
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	2.0 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+66.7% DERIVED: 2017 → 2022, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+33.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+200.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2014, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+300.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	5 (range 3–6) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2009–2023 (11 points, +0.2 per year, r² 0.47) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	75 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	66 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	76 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	87 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 40121. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2009–2023, +0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.47, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Kentucky and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 407, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 75 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	66.2	66	40%	+26.5
Restaurant Opportunity Score	75.9	76	35%	+26.6
Market Momentum Score	87.1	87	25%	+21.8

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 66 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	8,836	69	40%	+27.6
Median household income (ACS)	82,663	65	40%	+26.1
Households (ACS)	2,226	63	20%	+12.5

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 76 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	33.3	73	35%	+25.7
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	4.5	93	25%	+23.3
Population (ACS)	8,836	69	20%	+13.8
Median household income (ACS)	82,663	65	20%	+13.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 87 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	66.7	93	50%	+46.5
10-year restaurant growth	33.3	73	30%	+22.0
20-year restaurant growth	200	93	20%	+18.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (24)

By cuisine

Coffee 6 · American 5 · Juice / smoothies 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Dessert 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Mexican 2 · Asian 1 · Burgers 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Chinese 1 · Pizza 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Vietnamese 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 12 · Quick service 10 · Coffee shop 5 · Dessert 5 · Café 3 · Juice, smoothie, tea 3 · Bakery 2 · Food truck 1 · Specialty food shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
2 ChicksCafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	289 Ireland Ave	open
Baskin-Robbins	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Ice cream / frozen desserts	2013 Eisenhower Ave, - Mini Mall In Exchange Building	open
Bless RM	Café		2805 Us 60 Hwy E #41	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	2012 Eisenhower Ave	open
Charleys Cheesesteaks Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert · Coffee shop · Quick service · Café	Sandwiches · Ice cream / frozen desserts · Coffee · Chicken / wings · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	Fort Knox, Bldg 127	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	2013 Eisenhower Ave - Mini Mall in Exchange Building	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Coffee shop · Quick service · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	1600 Spearhead Division Ave - Hrc Building 3 Welcome Center	open
General Phở Vietnamese Kitchen	Food truck	Vietnamese	Ft Knox, 127 Gold Vault Rd	open
Green Beans Coffee	Coffee shop	Coffee	2013 Eisenhower Ave Bldg 2013	open
Jimmy John's Jimmy John's	Quick service · Specialty food shop	Sandwiches	2013 Eisenhower Ave	open
KY \| Teriyaki Madness Ft Knox Teriyaki Madness	Quick service		Ft Knox Military Base - Main Exchange 127 Gold Vault Rd Ft Knox, KY, 40121	open
Lee's China Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	7959 Wilson Rd	open
Lee's China Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	7959 Wilson Rd	open
Paradise Ice Shack	Quick service · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert	Juice / smoothies	127 Gold Vault Rd	open
Pizza Hut	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	4991 Chaffee Ave	open
QDoba Qdoba	Quick service	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	127 Gold Vault Rd	open
Saber & Quill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	1118 Chaffee Ave	open
Samuel Adams Brewhouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	2723 Spearhead Div Loop	open
Sbarro Sbarro	Quick service		Main Exchange, building 127, Suite A0005, Gold Vault Road	open
Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	75 Estrada Ave	open
Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	711 Spearhead Avenue, Bldg 708	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service		Bldg 127 Gold Vault Ave	open
Taco John's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	2013 Eisenhower Ave	open
Tropical Smoothie Cafe Tropical Smoothie Cafe	Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Juice / smoothies · Coffee	127 Gold Vault Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	2	1	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
2002	1	—	—	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2004	1	—	—	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	1	—	—	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	1	—	—	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	2	1	—	—	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	3	1	—	—	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	5	2	—	1	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	4	2	1	—	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	4	2	1	—	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	7	4	1	2	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	6	3	1	2	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	7	3	1	2	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	5	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	4	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	3	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	3	—	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	6	5	—	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	5	4	—	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 40121. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
40155	2.4 mi	3	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.